Welcome to one of the biggest racing days in the country. Bluegrass Stakes Day on opening weekend of the spring meet at Keeneland. Let’s have some fun this meet cashing tickets.
Race 1 – A group of 7 Optional Claiming $100,000 three year old’s kick off the festivities. 3- Thomas Shelby was an open length winner at Turfway last time. Cuts back in distance. Two solid local breezes. Son of Curlin they gave $525K for at the sales will likely improve switching to dirt.
We’ll give the nod to the one with recency over the second pick coming off a lay-off, 6- Preample. Preample was all out to get up in an Optional $75KN2L race last fall that came up fast on speed figs tipping the timer in racehorse time of 1:09 and change, especially for a baby. The owners Win Star and China Horse club know their way to a winner’s circle. If he’s ready to run back to that fall race here, then he’s a clear cut standout.
5- Topper T rounds out the tri. We think he’s maybe dressed up off a third in a four horse Grade 3 at Gulfstream last time. Iowa bred. We’ll wait to play this guy when he shows back up in Iowa at Prairie Meadows this summer, that’s probably where he belongs.
Race 2 – 11- Honest Mischeif was a nice second on debut behind the promising Pletcher debutante in Soldato. That race was right after Harvey Wallbanger busted up the Gulfstream Park late multi’s on Fountain of Youth Day. It was a solid group. This guy has all the fixings to go as the days most probable winner. This horse is supposed to be a runner for Juddmonte.
3- Ry’s the Guy projects to save ground tracking the pace from the rail. If the pace gets fast up top this guy is a big win threat.
12- Camp Randall has been steadily working for high win percentage connections of Stanley Hough, Sagamore Farm, and Luis Saez. This guy looks to have speed and projects to track outside the top pick. $240,000 Shackelford purchase. Could be a good one.
Race 3 – 6- Take Charge Angel has not been seen since going favored in the Rags to Riches Stakes on Breeder’s Cup weekend at Churchill. Disappointing race that day. Two back was a stylish debut winner. Transferred to the Colebrook barn from Cox. We see that as a lateral barn move. On paper, working up a storm in the mornings at Tampa. If she’s ready to run a big race, like her works suggest, and she’s gotten faster as a three year old she could be a big win threat to upset the 2-1 ML favorite Covfefe.
Our second choice was supposed to be the real deal after that debut win. Went favored at 3-5 in the Grade 1 Frizette last fall at Belmont. She’s really fast. Expect her to go from the rail and if she’s race ready off the lay-off and just as fast as she was in the fall on her debut, then she’s the winner. We just question if off the layoff is she going to be able to fight off a bunch of the projected pace pressure outside her and still kick on down the lane? All that may wear her out. And set it up for a tracking type.
10- Gracetown ships in off a win at Aqueduct for the Michelle Nevin barn. Irad Ortiz signed on is a plus. Should track from the outside and have a shot to run down the top picks. We like the recency here versus some of the betting favorites coming in off layoffs.
Race 4 – 6 Almithmar is a pricey son of Tapit who has always been cut out to be a good horse. The McLaughlin barn always seems to have its horses rounding into form during the spring, and this one is no exception. We expect this one to be in good position through the early stages of the race to be in winning position turning for home.
4- Gotta Go, they thought a lot of early on as evidenced by the graded stakes on the form. Patient barn. This one likely needed that race off the layoff. Improvement projected second up as a four year old.
2- The Hardest Way ships in from CA for the Ron Ellis barn. Solid work tab. Blinkers off. Irad Ortiz signed on. Son of Uncle Mo wouldn’t be a surprise at all.
Race 5 – 4- Dynabee was off slow and wide both turns and was still able to run on for third in her North American debut. We project improvement second start in the states. She’s a tepid top pick as she seems to have done her best work in Europe going 10 and 12 furlongs, so the 9 furlongs today may be a little sharp for her. But we think there’s enough pace in here for her to run at late.
2- Cured by Kitten has been freshened up since a slightly disappointing effort against better over the winter at Gulfstream. Returns to the course and distance of the maiden win. Drawn on the rail so should get a cozy ground saving tracking trip pocketed up behind the speed.
7- So Charming faces easier after disappointing in three runs over the winter at Gulfstream. Has some back speed figures that are quite competitive versus this group. Maybe a change in scenery might wake this one up to run back to those mid 80’s Beyers which a number that fast will likely win this event.
Race 6 – The Commonwealth – 2- Ready’s Rocket has always been cut out to be a top class sprinter ever since he got ran down at the wire in the Bashford Manor in his second start as a baby. He’s in razor sharp form right now. Only question mark with him is can he get the 7 furlongs? We think he’s up to the task. If the Riveli goes a break neck pace from the far outside, ‘Ready has shown he can rate enough to sit just off him tip outside of the Riveli and have a jump on rest of the field turning home. But I’m ok with Saez sending from the rail and letting a fast horse be fast and riding him like he’s the best horse regardless of other horses.
4- Uncontested also another back class horse. Comes off a win in the Gr. 3 General George at Laurel. Nice effort that day. One turn 7 to 8 furlongs hits this guy right between the eyeballs. He tipped that 6 furlongs in the Gen. George in a raw 1:08 and change that day. That’s moving. And this guy can stay around late going that fast. LOVE THE 12-1 PRICE! That’s Keeneland!!
3- Proforma- Bombs away here. Five year old now may be finding his career best lifetime form. Laid off for the remainder of the winter off a solid second in the Thanksgiving Day Handicap at Fair Grounds. Earned a competitive number that day. We think this guy can sit a nice ground saving/stalking trip under Bravo and if he’s race ready today, the post and trip should suit him and he’s fast enough to be a part, especially at 20-1.
Race 7 – The Shakertown – 11- Imprimis has ran the fastest speed figs of this group. He’s 6 for 8 lifetime with excuses of being wide and steading in both losses. We like outside posts in turf sprints at Keeneland. This guy has tactical speed for Paco to pick a nice tracking spot from that outside post. We think he gets bet down a little off that ML, but not too much as there’s others in here who’ll also take money. He beat two nice turf sprinters last time with a great trip. So in watching that race we don’t see him as a bounce candidate as he wasn’t ‘gutted’ in that race, but visually was wrapped up late.
8- Conquest Tsunami gave way going down the hill last weekend. Almost to bad of a race to believe. Love the short rest angle off a bad race as it suggests whatever issue caused the prior bad race has been resolved by the trainer and you can expect them to run back to those prior good efforts. Totally speculating here……. but maybe the Lasix dosage maximum out west being downed with rigamarole going on at Santa Anita may have caused the issue, and now in KY they can administer their normal dosage for him.
3- Disco Partner can track off the speed, save ground, and punch home. Classy turf sprinter. He’s known to be a Belmont horse for course kind of runner and that’s why we’ve faded to third. But he’s ran well at Keeneland and if Irad can get him to settle early, save ground on the turn, and get him to see clear race track outside the eight pole, then this guy can easily win. He’s got one hell of a 220 yard lick, just needs clear track in front of him to show it.
Race 8 – The Madison – 5- Spiced Perfection is the one we prefer out of the Barbara Fritchie. She broke a tinge slow from the rail, spotted the 6 Late Night Pow Wow about two lengths early to mid-race then went three wide as the ‘Pow Wow railed up the rail to win by a nose. This now four year old seems to be getting better for Peter Miller and we think she’s got the ability to improve enough to beat this group.
8- America’s Tale had her coming out party last time winning the Inside Information Stakes at Gulfstream about a month ago. She really showed she’s got some fight in deep stretch sticking that neck out and striding on for the wire nicely on the replay. We think now as a four year old she could have a say in this division this year. She look like she’s got some class to her. Tactical speed and outside post for Paco to place her in a good spot early. We think the seven furlong hits this filly right between the eyeballs.
9- Shamrock Rose is this division’s champ last year winning the Breeder’s Cup F&M Sprint. Cuts back in distance. Tactical outside draw. Has every chance to win. Carries a big class edge over this group.
Race 9 – The Central Bank Ashland – With the defection of Feedback opting to run in Sunday’s Beaumont Stakes, that leaves 4- Jaywalk as the overwhelming favorite. That said she was awful last time. She passed on the FL Oaks to come here, not a great sign in our opinion. She’s a little dressed up off that lone speed/easy pace win in the Breeder’s Cup Juvy Fillies. So we’re going to take a stab against her. Tred lightly though.
Our top pick is 2- Chocolate Kisses (great name btw). This is a pace play. Jaywalk will get no easy lead again today. And ‘Kisses is going to sit off the pace and make one run late. We’re going to bet on two scenarios of: 1. Jaywalk is not as good of a three year old as everyone thinks, and 2. Jaywalk gets pace pressure for outsiders and sets up a pace meltdown for ‘Kisses to scoop up.
6- Restless Rider is the second choice on the ML and our second choice. Projects to sit a mid-pack trip. This is the sophomore campaign bow. So we’ll see if she’s gotten better. Couple quick 5/8 breezes at Gulfstream prior to shipping up here signal she might be up to the task. Never been out of the exacta. She’s the kinda hard knockin always showing up kind of filly you’d love to own. 4- Jaywalk is the obligatory third choice out of default.
Race 10 – The Toyota Blue Grass – 6- Dream Maker had a rough trip last out in the Tampa Derby. Two back was a stylish winner at Fair Grounds to begin the sophomore campaign. Cut out to be a good horse from day one. Need to see him break well and forwardly placed early to have the upset chance.
2- Vekoma certainly looks tough to beat on paper. But in a full field with many long shots you can make cases for, it’s tough to swallow the short price he’ll be. We also wonder if he truly wants to go 9 furlongs. We think he may be best going one turn. So that’s enough reason to swing against him and fade him to second.
14- Aquadini just got ran down last time at Fair Grounds in allowance company and takes a big step up to graded company, tough post too. But he’s got tactical speed to hopefully slot over and not loose too much ground early. Improving speed figure pattern race by race, which we love to see. And he’ll be a big 20-1+ long shot price. Dallas Stewart always seems to get one horse in the derby and an exacta finish today for this guy punches his ticket to the big one next month. 4- Market King could run big for the coach. Third in the Rebel last time behind Game Winner and Omaha Beach, which is some tough company. Should be forwardly placed as well. Thinking he can stick around for a piece of the exotics. Fun race. Enjoy it!
Race 11– 1- Astoundment lost nearly all chance last time when breaking slow form the 12 hole in a full field at Gulfstream. This one has a tendency to get keyed up early if asked to rate. So we expect Robby to go to the lead from the rail. We think with a better break and the lead this one is the horse to beat.
5- Delta’s Gain was a length away from winning against similar last time at Gulfstream. Now on a turf course a little more friendly to off the pace types, this one has a big chance to win for trainer Bill Mott and the always dangerous on the Keeneland lawn Julien Leparoux.
2- Chocolate Bridge showed some talent as a baby in a maiden race at Saratoga. Rough trip from a difficult 12 post after breaking slow at Gulfstream last time. We expect a better showing with Gafflione back aboard today breaking from the two hole.