Saturday October 13th at Keeneland
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
(A notice to all readers: Selections for each race are given out in the presumed order of finish with the most likely winner of the race being listed as the first choice for each race. That being said, these selections can also be used for exotic wagering as well and I would encourage my readers to go ahead and play these picks in exactas and trifectas on top of the normal wagers that they would be making for each race.)
Keeneland meet stats
Win %=9% 1-11
R.O.I=-69%
Race 1: Mdn 67K, 1 1/16 miles on the Turf, For Maidens, Three Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 1:05 PM EDT.
Selections: 7-4-1
(7) Mjolnir: There is not a lot of early speed drawn into this race and Mjolnir is one of the few runners that has shown a willingness to even be up close to the pace early on in any of his recent outings. As such he could get first crack at taking over the lead should the distance prove too far for the likely pacesetter drawn to his outside. The addition of blinkers which should sharpen his focus and have him closer to the lead, the fact that Quartarolo has been winning at a 23% rate in Maiden Special Rate races and the highest last out speed rating of an 85 BSR all help Mjolnir’s chances here.
(4) My Dream: The transfer to the barn of Vickie Foley and the reduction in distance have apparently changed this colt’s running style making him more of a pace stalker than a closer which bodes well for his chances in this race. His last effort at today’s distance in a $56K Maiden race at Churchill was fairly good and if he can build off that performance that he has a legitimate shot at hitting the board. It is very encouraging to see Lanerie remain onboard for Foley who has been winning Maiden Special Weight races at a 20% rate over the past three years.
(1) Trouble Coffee: Quite honestly the experience at today’s eight and a half furlong distance in which this son of Paddy O’Prado has finished second in two of his three attempts is the most appealing part about this runner. Otherwise not much else stands out about him but a third selection was needed for this race and the rest of the field does not appeal at all.
Race 2: 30000n2L, 1 1/16 miles on the Dirt, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 1:39 PM EDT.
Selections: 5-2-6
(5) San Elijo: The first of two runners in this field for trainer Michael Stidham, this son of Alternation has hit the board in three of his five tries at the distance. He makes a massive drop in class today following a disappointing effort in $73K Allowance race at Parx last month. San Elijo boasts the highest speed in the field at this distance of a 96 BSR which towers over his closest rival and should be able to get out to a favorable early lead as a result of his running style. Stidham has been winning at a 19% rate not only shipping in but when entering runners for a claiming tag for the first time as well.
(2) Halite: The other runner for Stidham, Halite has won once before at this distance and will be dropping slightly in class today. Thus far in the Keeneland meet, posts 1-4 have won 10 out of 15 of the two turn dirt races run and thus Halite’s favorable post position should help his chances of possibly winning today. While his recent speed figures are not quite as flashy as those of his stablemate, Halite has fired off two solid works recently and moreover will have Geroux onboard today (25% win rate in route races this year). Should either of the two other early speed horses in this field begin to fade towards the end, look for Halite to likely come surging down the stretch along the rail to grab a win.
(6) Lead Astray: This son of Malibu Moon comes into this race having failed once before at this level in his last race so be aware. But the speed figure he posted in that race along with his effort was respectable enough and he should be forwardly placed once again. Hartman has been winning at a 24% rate in claiming races over the past three years and it would not be surprising to see the three early pacesetters run 1-2-3 today as few others in this field can match their speed or experience at the distance.
Race 3: OC 62500N2X, 6 ½ Furlongs on the dirt, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 2:12 PM EDT.
Selections: 5-1-2
(5) Copper Town: When last seen over a year ago, this son of Speightstown showed blazing speed in posting back to back 101 BSRs all the while taking both of the fields he faced wire to wire in races at much longer distances. Now he returns as the 8/5 ML favorite for trainer Todd Pletcher, the only trainer who has actually won more than two races thus far in the current meet. In fact Pletcher boasts a 31% win rate when returning runners off of layoffs of greater than 90 days and his recent works suggest he has this one primed to fire again today. The cutback in distance should work to Copper Town’s advantage and look for him to possibly go gate to wire once again.
(1) Control Stake: While this son of Discretely Mine has managed to hit the board in all five of his tries at this distance, he has yet to win at six and a half furlongs and today may be no different. This horse has repeatedly finished second not only with Lanerie aboard but also at this class level so it would behoove one to be wary of expecting more from him today. However, Control Stake has posted respectable speed figures as of late and should get a fairly quick pace to run at which bodes well for his chances of at least hitting the board once again.
(2) Sevier: This son of Union Rags makes a major drop in class today coming out of a $75K listed stakes at Mountaineer back in August. He has shown an ability to be forwardly placed and would likely inherit pacesetting duties should the Pletcher trainee not fire. Cox has done incredibly well over the past three years not only when returning runners off of layoffs of 46-90 days (28% win rate from 383 starts) but also in Allowance races (27% win rate from 679 starts).
Race 4: MC 30000, 7 Furlongs on the dirt, For Maidens, Two Years Old. Post Time: 2:45 PM EDT.
Selections: 4-5-7
(4) Equus Novus: One of these runners in this field has to win this race right? The son of Super Ninety Nine, drops in class today after not showing much at all in a $56K Maiden race and Churchill back in September so hopefully racing against lesser company may help. Sisterson has done well with two year old runners thus far in his career having posted an 18% win rate so far. Additionally Gilligan has been racing decently in sprints this year as he has been winning those races at a 15% rate.
(5) Wings Up: Trainer Norm Casse sends out this first time starter, a son of Shakin It Up from a General Meeting mare. His dam has produced four winners including one stakes winner from four starters, his pedigree suggests that he should be able to handle this distance and he did post a fairly sharp workout earlier this month over the training track at Churchill. Santana gets the call to ride and thus far this year this jockey has done very well in sprint races having won 21% of 427 starts.
(7) Flion Lynn Lion: Trainer Wesley Ward sends out this son of Wilburn dropping in class today after failing to show much of anything in two previous starts. Although he has yet to establish a preferred running style (according to Brisnet), TimeForm has indicated that this colt will likely be towards the rear of the field early on and will have to make his charge towards the front from there. This should be alright as there appears to be ample enough pace for him to get an honest trip and may allow him to hit the board. The stretchout in distance should not be a problem for Flion Lynn Lion and furthermore Ward has done well in Maiden Claiming races having posted a 26% win rate thus far over the past three years.
Race 5: Alw 50000s, 1 mile on the turf, For Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 3:18 PM EDT.
Selections: 1A-7-3
(1A) She Doesn’t Mind: Please keep in mind that this horse will be breaking from Post 10 and is a couple entry with the #1 Moolah Schmoolah breaking from Post 8. Trained by Jorge Abreu, She Doesn’t Mind has hit the board in six of eight tries at a mile on turf though she has yet to win at the distance. She comes into this race having narrowly missed in her last two tries over the grass in $40k Claiming races at Saratoga and although she has yet to replicate the speed figures she produced as a two year old, her pace stalking running style and recent BSRs at this distance may be good enough to get her a win today. Abreu has done alright in turf races, having won 15% of 158 starts over the past three years and it is encouraging to see Geroux take the mount today as he has been doing very well with E/P type horses such as She Doesn’t Mind (20% win rate from 477 starts).
(7) Holly Go Lightly: This daughter of Artie Schiller comes into this race off of a string of solid runner up efforts against tougher older rivals and should appreciate the bit of class relief that she receives today. She has posted both a win and a placing already in two tries at the distance along with some solid recent speed figures. There is a good deal of early speed entered into this race so it is very likely that she will take up a pace stalking role and try and be involved challenging for the lead late once again. Margolis has done alright with his runners competing in route races as he currently holds a 13% win and 40% ITM rate for those types of races.
(3) Stay Anchored: Trainer Ignacio Correas IV sends out this daughter of Midshipman not only dropping in class but also returning to the grass today. This is another runner that has shown that she is best when rating from off the pace and it is very likely that she employs such a strategy again today. Although her best efforts thus far have come over the Polytrack at Arlington, in her one start on turf against $75K Optional Claiming company she failed to produce much after becoming quite rank early on. However her pedigree suggests she shouldn’t mind racing over the lawn and the addition of a very capable turf rider in Flavien Prat (24% win rate from 353 starts this year) certainly boosts her chances of improving and possibly hitting the board today.
Race 6: Clm 40000, 7 Furlongs on the dirt, For Fillies Three Years Old. Post Time: 3:51 PM EDT.
Selections: 3-4-2
(3) Broome: Brad Cox and Florent Geroux team up once again for this race with this daughter of Bellamy Road. Although she has yet to race at today’s distance, this classy filly has the pedigree to suggest she can handle seven furlongs with ease. Additionally, she has been facing much tougher in her two previous starts when facing off against stakes company and should appreciate the major drop in class today. Broome has been rattling off speed figures in the mid to high 80s recently which when combined with her early running style give her an excellent chance at being successful against these rivals as she projects to be forwardly placed once again. As she is the ML favorite at 8/5 keep an eye on her price as there is the possibility she could be odds on by post time.
(4) Our Girl Abby: A daughter of Majestic Warrior, this filly has run alright against a slightly lower class level before at Belmont and Saratoga with two second place efforts over six furlongs. She’ll stretchout another furlong today and although her first attempt at the distance resulted in an off the board finish, her pedigree suggests the trip is within her abilities. Throughout the course of her career, she’s show that she’s capable of hitting the board not only when rating just off the pace but also when stalking from further back. Lanerie should have her sitting just a few lengths back today and she’ll likely try and make her bid for the lead as the field enters the stretch. Gargan has done very well with his runners not only when shipping in to race but also in Claiming races as he boasts a 25% win rate for both those conditions.
(2) Santino: This daughter of Artie Schiller comes into this race off of a more than four month layoff for trainer Wayne Catalano. She’ll not only be stepping up in class today but also in distance although her previous performances against similar along with her pedigree suggests she can certainly handle both tests today and should be able to hit the board as well. She does have some tactical speed which could work to her advantage as she will likely be racing from off the pace today as there is an abundance of speed entered into this race. Catalano has done very well over the past three years in Claiming races having won 26% of 239 starts during that time period.
Race 7: Mdn 67k, 6 Furlongs on the Dirt, For Maidens Two Years Old. Post Time: 4:24 PM EDT.
Selections: 5-11-10
(5) Explorationist: This son of Pioneerof the Nile will definitely need to show more today than in his career debut as he is not only stepping up in class but also in distance. However, his pedigree suggests he should handle six furlongs with ease and his good early speed and forward running style certainly make him a threat to improve off of that third place effort. Casse has been doing very well with runners returning off of layoffs of 46-90 days as well as with runners making their second career start (17% win rate for both conditions). Additionally, Geroux will have the mount today and he has done very well in sprint races so far this year, boasting a 22% win rate.
(11) Tapit Wise: Trainer Tom Amoss sends out this son of Tapit, a $700K purchase in last year’s Keeneland September sale, for Whisper Hill Farm. His dam has four winners, including two stakes winners, from five starters and this colt has been working out quite well as of late. Amoss does very well with first time starters (24% win rate) as well as debut Maiden Special Weight runners (25% win rate). Tapit Wise would have been the top selection had runners from posts 9 and further outside not posted a 2.4% win rate (1 for 41) in one turn dirt sprints thus far in the Keeneland meet. Thus he warrants use underneath the top selection here.
(10) Bourbon Calling: This son of Dialed In showed some promise in his career debut when posting an 82 BSR over six furlongs against competition similar to what he’ll face today. In that race he displayed a pace stalking running style and will likely have to employ such tactics again today as he does not appear to be quick enough to get out to the lead early on and will still need to break well to avoid being compromised by the poor outside post draw. Wilkes has done alright in these Maiden Special Weights over the past three years as he has been winning these races at a 12% rate and finishing ITM in 35% of 608 starts. This colt could win today but offers more value as an underneath play instead.
Race 8: Alw 69000n2L, 6 Furlongs on the dirt, For Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 4:57 PM EDT.
Selections: 7-10-6
(7) Upset Brewing: This three year old filly returns to dirt after more than a three month layoff today for trainer Buff Bradley. Although she has yet to win this year, she has managed to hit the board in six of eight starts and furthermore has finished in the money in four of five tries at today’s distance. Although this race does mark somewhat of a step up in class for her, Upset Brewing has been racing against good company in the past and should be able to handle this test today. Upset Brewing possesses good early speed, yet is tactical enough that she can rate when necessary which should work to her advantage as this field is absolutely loaded with early speed type horses. Bradley does fairly well with runners making the transition from turf to dirt (14% win rate) and Upset Brewing’s last couple of works suggest that she is in good form coming into this race.
(10) Treasure in Heaven: This daughter of Street Sense has twice attempted six furlongs and won her first try at the distance but then finished well back behind tougher rivals at Saratoga in August. Today not only does she drop in class but will receive the wonder drug Lasix for the first time. The 92 BSR she posted at this distance last December makes her incredibly dangerous if she can somehow return to that form. Additionally, her pace-stalking running style should have her forwardly placed which could potentially negate the poor outside post draw provided she breaks well. Castellano (21% win rate in sprint races this year) gets the call to ride again today which is always a good sign.
(6) Trace: This daughter of Ghostzapper returns to sprinting on the dirt following a third place against tougher rivals over the grass at Kentucky Downs back in September. Although she has hit the board just once at today’s distance, she appeared to finally be figuring things out in her last dirt start at Ellis Park where she rallied from off the pace to win by a neck. In that effort she posted a 90 BSR which would make her very competitive against this field if she can return to that form. Today’s race actually marks a drop in class for her and should further work in her favor. If she goes off around her ML odds of 5-1 she will certainly offer value here, though it is somewhat difficult envisioning her winning this race so she warrants use as an underneath play only.
Race 9: The $500,000 Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes, 1 1/8 miles on the turf, For Three Year Old Fillies. Post Time: 5:30 PM EDT.
Selections: 8-1-3
(8) Rushing Fall: The barn of Chad Brown sends out this daughter of More Than Ready who is a neck shy of being a perfect six for six in her career. In her last start, over soft going at Saratoga in the Lake Placid Stakes (G2T), she answered any doubts about whether or not she could handle nine furlongs. Her works following that race have all been fairly solid and Castellano will once again get the call to ride today as he has been with her for all of her past six starts. However, there is one major question that she will need to answer today and that deals with pace. In all of her previous starts, she had pace to run behind and track before making a move for the lead down the stretch. In this race, she will be thrust into an unfamiliar situation: namely that she will likely have to make her own pace, especially considering that she is drawn to the far outside. If she can handle this challenge and withstand bids by some of her late-running rivals drawn to her inside then she will likely win today and with ease. While her ML odds of 7/5 do not offer much value, it is very difficult to see her losing in this race as Brown has been doing exceptionally well with runners that won their last race and with trainees that are returning off of layoffs of 46-90 days (27% win rate for both conditions).
(1) Nyaleti: Trainer Mark Johnston ships this daughter of Arch back to the United States to face off against stakes competition after a layoff of over two months. In her first start in the U.S. she squared off against the likes of Sistercharlie and Fourstar Crook (arguably the two best female turf runners in North America right now) in the Beverly D Stakes (G1T) at Arlington Park in August. She was forwardly placed early on and ended up fading to finish sixth, but was only beaten by two and three quarter lengths. In her most recent start, she finished fifth in the Celebration Mile Stakes (G2T) at Goodwood, behind Stormy Antarctic who went on to finish third when shipping over last month in the Woodbine Mile (G1T). Although today will mark the first time that she has ever attempted nine furlongs, her effort in the Beverly D and pedigree suggest that the stretchout in distance should be no issue for her. Corey Lanerie gets the call for her today, and although he has yet to win at this meet, is master of riding the rail and should be able to provide this filly with an excellent trip and allow her to hit the board.
(3) Fatale Bere: Trainer Leonard Powell ships this filly in from California coming off of a win in the Del Mar Oaks (G1T). This daughter of Pedro the Great likely would have been a perfect three for three at this distance had her saddle not slipped in the Honeymoon Stakes (G2T) at Santa Anita back in June. The 98 BSR she posted in her last effort is actually tied for the highest amongst the entire field, with Rushing Fall, not only at the distance but also for their last out efforts. Fatale Bere has proven that she can run well both when rating just off of the pace as well as stalking from further back, but she has also proven that she can run poorly when employing those running styles. In a race virtually lacking of any pace, it would certainly behoove Desormeaux to have Fatale Bere more forwardly placed as that appears to be her best chance at hitting the board today. Powell has not had a lot of success when shipping in from California so it remains to be seen how Fatale Bere will fare against these East Coast turf runners. This filly is somewhat difficult to trust winning here against this field, so perhaps it’s best if she is used as an underneath play only.
Race 10: Alw 73000n3x, 1 1/16 miles on the turf, For Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 6:03 PM EDT.
Selections: (13)-8-10-12
(13) Last Promise Kept: She appears to be the one to beat here, if she can draw into this race as she will need a scratch from the main field to get in. She has hit the board in four of five tries at the distance and furthermore drops in class from her last out third place effort in a $250K Listed Stakes race at Kentucky Downs last month. She should get a fast enough pace to suit her closing running style additionally which bodes well for her to hit the board at the very least.
(8) Vagabond Princess: Should the top selection not draw in, this daughter of Pure Prize will inherit that billing. She takes a major drop in class today, coming into this race off of a really poor performance in a Grade 2 at Del Mar last month. However, she has finished first or second in five of her nine tries at today’s distance and possesses good tactical speed along with a rather versatile running style. The speed figures that she’s posted this year at this distance have been outstanding and her 96 BSR certainly makes her a threat amongst these rivals.
(10) Smart Emma: This five year old Smart Strike mare posted a scorcher of a workout last week and has won two of three attempts at this distance. She figures to be forwardly placed in this field today as she has good early speed and if she can handle the step up in class then could give a good effort and possibly hit the board. Peitz is currently winning at a 17% rate with runners that won their last race.
(12) Dagney’s Warrior: In all honesty, I’m really just a fan of A.P. Warrior as a sire and that’s why this one merits consideration. The far outside post draw is not ideal, although this filly has good early speed and will likely break for the lead from the jump. This level of competition may be a bit sharp for her but she is dropping down in class from her last race at Indiana Grand and does boast a win over the surface at Keeneland. It is doubtful that she could hold on to win this race as she has yet to attempt eight and a half furlongs (though the pedigree suggests that the trip is possible) yet, an on the board finish is not outside of the realm of possibilities for her today.