Keeneland Friday, October 5, 2018
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves scented candles, pizza, sarcasm, and lively discussions. He hits 3/4s, 4/5s, and 5/6s on the regular. His girlfriend is an equine pharmacist, and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge.
Race One: 1:05 post – Maiden 67K 1 1/16 Mile Turf 2YOs
1-9-4-11
The first race on the card is a wide open affair without any real standout in my mind. A full field of 12 runners is carded, and four of them are first time starters. #9 Life Mission runs in America for the second time since coming over from Ireland, and this 2YO is already gelded. His connections sure think a lot of him as his American debut was the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Turf Sprint for 500K. He gets Jose Ortiz in the irons as Geroux may have decided to hop off for the first time starter #11 Field Patrol. Michael Maker trains Field Patrol, but he has only won at 9% with FTS in 2018. The horse does have some works from the gate in his training, so he may be able to win at first asking. #4 Noble Nebraskan is sure to take some money as George Weaver connects pretty well second time out and this entry didn’t embarrass himself with his first race at similar conditions at Saratoga on 9/1/18. Weaver hasn’t given him Lasix yet, so he probably has some upside, but I am going to try and beat the two favorites with the #1 A.K. Safari. This Kenny McPeek horse has certainly flashed some talent in his works dating back to 8/30/18, and he gets Brian Hernandez who is hopping off the #10 Mr. Sarcastic. McPeek only wins at 7% first time out, but this horse should love the grass, and I’m on board. If the #14 Firewater Jake draws into the race, take a look at the board to see if this Cox runner has any steam as Brad hits at 23% first time out.
Race Two: 1:39 post – Maiden Claiming 30K 6F F&M 3YO and Up
4-6-7-3
#6 Riesling is the morning line favorite and honestly, why not? She’s getting some class relief by dropping to the claiming ranks for the first time in her career, Lanerie jumps back on, and Kellyn Gorder connects at 19% first time claiming. #3 Hoptown Honey has tried nine times now, but she’s keeping Calvin Borel for the third straight race, and he almost got her picture taken at Churchill Downs last time out on 9/14/18. #7 Castle Ridge is coming off a layoff one week shy of a year and has shown a couple of good works since returning in the morning, including a scorcher on 10/1/18. With Jose Ortiz getting the mount, Ron Moquett may have this one fully back, especially at this level. I’m going to do a bit of a deep dive here and take #4 Pure Sugar in this spot. Her best race was here at Keeneland on 4/19/18, and it looks like Sally Schu has her ready coming off of a four-month layoff. I’m drawing a line through the last two efforts where she clearly didn’t like the all-weather at Arlington and the burn-out at Belterra.
Race Three: 2:12 post – Allowance 69K N1X 1 Mile F&M 3YO and Up
6-4-1-8
Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez have #4 Virginia Key entered off of a six-month layoff, and she is a stand-out on paper if she continues to run like her last effort in the G2 Gazelle. Todd has been working her since August, and I expect her to fire. #8 Dessert Honeys also has some back class as evidenced by her fair running in the G2 Golden Rod last November at Churchill Downs. This is her second start since returning from a seven-month layoff, and Jose Ortiz gets the mount. If you want a horse that finished almost eight lengths behind Monomoy Girl in the only race she didn’t cross the wire first, this is the runner for you. I think she is a cut below others in this race. #1 Aerial Assets is showing some improved form for Kelly Breen, and she is 1-1-3 in her five-lifetime starts. I love her last work and picking up Brian Hernandez for her Keeneland debut, and I think she has a real shot. I landed on #6 Clever Serve for the owned and trained Steve Asmussen. Steve claimed this extremely active 4YO for 20K back in September 2017, and he has put her in the money seven straight starts, including six with his top jockey Ricardo Santana. She hasn’t found the winner’s circle at Keeneland just yet, but she is 5-5 in the money here. I think she says “cheese” today. Incidentally, if you like the #6, you have to like the #7 Saracosa as she was only 1 ¾ lengths behind in their last start.
Race Four: 2:45 post – Claiming 30K N2L 6F F&M 3YO and Up
3-2-5-8
This race looks to be pretty evenly matched, so why take the favorite? Sure #2 Emma Kate is lightly raced and has already won at Keeneland. She may even complete an Asmussen double with the predicted winner of the previous race, but I’d like a little more money in my tickets. #5 Mischievious Lass is a likely contender for John Ortiz and Adam Beschizza. She has been knocking around the claiming ranks picking up checks out west until Baltas broke her maiden on 8/16/18 at Del Mar. She shipped to Indiana Grand for her Midwest debut with Ortiz, and she has a shot here if she improves off that effort at all. #8 True Boots for Kenny McPeek and Brian Hernandez will be running down the stretch to make this race interesting. Sure, she’s 1 for 16 lifetime, but this is her second race back, and she doesn’t need to improve much to get back to her 4/13/18 Keeneland start. I want the #3 Flash n’ Dance who broke her maiden at the Pea Patch last out in her eighth try and Calvin staying in the irons. Perhaps she’s figured it out, and her only Keeneland start on 10/13/17 is undoubtedly good enough here.
Race Five: 3:18 post – Maiden 67K 1 1/16 Mile Turf 2YOs
10-11-8-5
The racing secretary certainly didn’t do us any favors by carding this race with the identical conditions of the first race, making the bookends of the early Pick Five challenging. This race appears to be a little weaker than the wide-open first race. #5 Southern Bridge loses Jose Ortiz but gains Johnny V, and that’s not a downgrade. Billy Mott entered him at similar conditions at Saratoga on 9/1/18, and he didn’t fire as the favorite, but I give him a shot here. #8 Candizar keeps bug boy Edgar Morales aboard for Wesley Hawley, and he certainly outran his odds at Kentucky Downs in his only start. The five-pound weight advantage could help even more here at Keeneland. The favorite #11 Moon Colony has worked four times since his adventurous last effort at Saratoga, and Leparoux stays up. Sure, there’s certainly room to improve, but not at this price in a wide open field. I’ll take the first time starter #10 He’s No Lemon. Graham Motion has first-time starters winning at 13%, he attracts Jose Ortiz, and the pedigree says he’ll love the turf. Mix in a few competent works, and I like what I see. I’ll jump off of him if the board says no, but I think it’s going to say yes. Also, if this one comes off the turf, the MTO #15 Plus Que Parfait should win in a romp.
Race Six: 3:51 post – Allowance 10KS 7F 3YO and Up
1-7-8-6
#6 Dan the Go to Man has gradually slid down the class ladder in 2018 to a bottom level $7500 claimer last out at Ellis Park. He did win the race by daylight, and he keeps Adam Beschizza. #8 Mineyerownmalone has been knocking around this level for a while now, and he is an “all or nothing” horse as evidenced by his 11-2-1 results in 31 starts. Corey Lanerie, who has been very successful with him, is rejoining him. #7 Yes I See is the apparent jockey choice for Julien Leparoux as he won on the #11 He’s No Saint last time out. Matt Kordenbrock has Yes I See staying on the dirt after a long run of turf starts, a move lower level claimers don’t typically make, but I like the show of confidence. Speaking of confidence, I am taking a huge shot with the Loooch Racing #1 Manipulated who he claimed on 8/31/18 for $16K last time out at Saratoga. He didn’t run very well the day he got claimed, and the claiming price doesn’t fit today’s conditions. You have to look all the way back 10/4/17 to find his qualifying race. This is a drop in class from the last race for sure and that 9/22/18 work at Churchill Downs is a confidence builder for me. I’m taking my shot here, and it’s even better if the other part of the entry #1A Outback Jack draws in.
Race Seven: 4:24 post – Allowance 71K N2X 1 Mile Turf 3YO and Up
11-9-2-5
I’ll try to ride a little Loooch lime-green lightning here, giving the #9 Machismo a shot. He’s trying the turf for the second time in his career, and he certainly has run longer than his recent two sprint efforts as evidenced by his four Graded Stakes races earlier in the year. He broke his maiden by a country mile with Albin Jimenez up. He’s not my top choice, but I like his chances. Coming off his last effort in the G2 Del Mar Derby, the #11 Majestic Eagle looks like the class of the field. He appears to have had four fitness works since his last race and I expect him to run well. #2 Argentic is making his American debut for Graham Motion and Jose Ortiz. He has spent his life running against similar in France, but it appears Motion has had him since at least February 2017 and he hasn’t raced in over a year. I let these types of horses beat me, but something tells me he’ll be ready. #13 Parauari has a real shot if he gets in off the AE list and I think #14 Honorable Treasure is a lock if it washes off the turf.
Race Eight: 4:57 post – Grade 2 Phoenix 6F 3YO and Up
2-4-1-3
I don’t like eating chalk, but this looks like a race where the top three are head and shoulders above the rest. #1 Promises Fulfilled has been very solid since changing to the sprinting game, but he hasn’t faced the likes of the two other monsters in this race. I’m not sure how he was made the morning line favorite, but I want him third behind the power duo of #2 Whitmore and #4 Limousine Liberal. I don’t know that I can find an angle where one of these is better than the other as they have knocked heads several times over the course of their careers. On paper, you can certainly argue that Limousine Liberal might be a notch better, but Whitmore’s last race was a monster as Santana almost put him over the rail at the top of the stretch and he pulled off to win by over a length. Give me Whitmore.
Race Nine: 5:30 post – Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades 1 1/16 2YO Fillies
8-3-7-9
I want to draw a line through the last race of #9 Catherinethegreat. I honestly think that if she didn’t run that race, she would be the favorite for Mark Casse and Julien Leparoux. She was well-placed at first and second call and then just came up empty. I fear her, but I am using others. Peter Miller is bringing two to the party by shipping in #5 Kim K and #7 Boujie Girl. Both of their regular jockeys appear to be making the trip to Keeneland for one mount only, and I find that confidence instilling. I like the extra rest between starts for Boujie Girl, and I guess I’ll have to draw a line through her last to use her in the third spot. #3 Restless Rider certainly hasn’t done anything wrong for Kenny McPeek and Brian Hernandez in her first three starts. McPeek is going to give her a little dose of Lasix for this one, so watch out. My top pick is Joe Sharp’s #8 Lady T N T. She has romped in her last two races, but she is certainly stepping up in class here. Look, they are all 2YOs, and they can improve quickly, but Sharp didn’t rush her after taking a Saratoga maiden special weight, and he let her win at next asking by running her in an OC75K at Churchill Downs. I think he has her full of confidence and he keeps Corey Lanerie. Yes, please.
Race Ten: 5:30 post – Maiden 67K 1 Mile Turf 2YO Fillies
8-2-3-10
Here we have the filly version of the first and fifth race on today’s card. I’m not going to get too cute with it as I see the Pletcher/Velazquez team breaking the maiden of #8 Full Swing. Though Pletcher debuted her at Gulfstream, a move I normally don’t like in his horses, he sent her out in a turf route at first asking, a move I love. She looks to have regressed a touch in her second race, but that race washed off the turf. I think she is the class of the field. The #2 Hope So, #3 Le Moine, and #10 Toast the Bulldogs are all first-time starters with some upside. I gave Hope So the nod for second as Catalano wins at 19% in FTS starts and she looks to be working well in the morning. I don’t see much in the other experienced runners, so I am going to let the FTS runners finish the verticals here.