It’s the last Friday at Keeneland before the Breeders’ Cup in two weeks. There are no stakes races on the card this afternoon, but there’s always competitive betting races to try to build up that bankroll.
Race 1: $30,000 Claiming NW3L or 3yo, 1 Mile and 1/16: My Picks: 5-4-1
I usually side with consistency in these multi-conditioned claiming races, and both Cantrell Hill (5) and Urbanite (4) fit that description. Cantrell Hill was claimed for 10K last out and moves up the ladder for Amoss. He’s hit the board in his last five starts, and his last two races as a four year old have been good enough to compete at this level. I think he sits a great trip here. Urbanite has hit the board in his last six starts and moves up after being claimed by a smaller outfit for 20K. I’d like him better if there was more of a possibility of a robust pace on the front end. Morning Social (1) draws the rail and returns to the main track after four straight turf tries. He’s been competitive on dirt though and should benefit from a rail trip.
Race 2: $40,000 Claiming NW2L, 2yoF, 6 and 1/2 Furlongs: My Picks: 4-1-2
We have a half dozen 2 year old filly claimers from a variety of class levels, circuits, and surfaces in their last starts. There’s plenty of angles to lean on in this race. At 6 and 1/2 furlongs, I usually look for horses that are cutting back a bit, and I get that with More Is More (4). She just missed two back at Ellis on the grass at 1 Mile, then broke her maiden at the same distance on the dirt at Churchill, beating a modest field. Stanley Hough really excels with two year olds and he’s very good at spotting his horses. Moonshine Dancing (1) won on debut at Churchill with maiden claimers last month. She’s had two solid works in the interim and could move forward off her last effort. Sunny Isle Beach (2) ran in stakes company on the grass at Saratoga last out, against the boys. Her lone win was on the dirt two back with maiden claimers at Churchill. It hasn’t been the best meet for Wesley Ward, but any time he runs a two year old at Keeneland, you should probably pay attention.
Race 3: $40,000 Maiden Claiming, About 7 Furlongs: My Picks: 1-4-2
I’ll try the second time starter Perfect Sense (1) to pull the upset here. He took some moderate money at the windows in his debut, but had some trouble in his maiden voyage. I think the added distance helps and I like that Geroux keeps the mount for Catalano, who has had a decent meet. Eel Point (4) faltered last out as the 3-5 favorite here on opening day. While he was definitely the one to beat, that was a crazy low price. Cutting back to one turn may help his fortunes. Soviet (2) is beautifully bred, but hasn’t quite lived up to lofty expectations. He has been gradually improving, and looked good while emplyong new
Race 4: Allowance NW2L 2yof, 1 Mile and 1/16, DIRT: My Picks: 1-10-6
Note that this race has been moved to the main track. Cecile’s Chapter (1) looked like a standout in this spot if this race stayed on the grass. She decimated a maiden field on the grass at Indiana Grand in her debut and followed that up with a solid fourth place finish in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies. She was beaten by Plum Ali that day, who went on to win the Miss Grillo in her next start. Brad Cox’s horses have been dominant at the meet and her pedigree suggests that she’ll handle the main track. I think she can sit off some cheap speed here and make a run late. Magnetism (10) was a debut winner on the grass at Monmouth Park. She showed that she can rate off the pace. Her pedigree also suggests that dirt will not be an issue. Fast N Fine Worker (6) ships up from Remington after decimating a maiden special weight field by 18 lengths in her first try at two turns. She may have to be used to get the lead, but she ran well enough to merit a look here.
Race 5: $150,000 Maiden Claiming, 2yoF, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 9-8-3
This is an unusual condition, where all nine horses are up for sale, but the asking price is steep at $150,000. Eight of the nine here are making their debuts in this spot, and most are modestly bred fillies that have shown some interest in the mornings. I’ll look to the outside with Bell Day (9), who shows a long string of steady works leading up to her debut. She worked swiftly last week and appears to be ready to go. Our Ten Angels (8) also has a favorable post for her debut. She’s by Not This Time, who has had some success with his babies this season. She too has been working consistently over the past few months. Good With Numbers (3) is the only known quantity in the field. She’s been up on two very hot paces in both starts in maiden special weight company, and she’s faded late. If she’s able to be on a more moderate pace in the opening half, she’ll be more of a threat at this level.
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight 2yoF, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 7-5-8
This is another nine horse race for two year old fillies, where seven are making their debuts. They’ll have to be pretty good to defeat Color Of Dawn (9) who fought gamely with Decade in her debut at Churchill, before ceding the lead late. She gets a favorable outside draw and will be very hard to beat If she runs back to her last try. Zoom Up (8) is an Upstart filly debuting for Amoss. He has a filly debuting in the previous race for the tag, so it’s fair to think that he thinks this one might have a better shot at this level. Santana hops off the Trouble Making (4) and rides the Three Chimney’s homebred, La Pulcinela (5) for Asmussen. Like Amoss, Asmussen is also represented in the previous race. Her works aren’t eye-catching, but they’re steady enough.
Race 7: NW1X Allowance, F/M, 5 and 1/2 Furlongs DIRT, My Picks: 11-8-12
Please note that this race will be run on the main track. This race lost a lot of intrigue when being moved to the main track. There’s not a lot of dirt form to go off of for many, but I’ll try Kona Kai (11) on top. She has been improving this year and now makes her third start off the layoff. Her bloodlines have a lot of successful dirt runners, and her best efforts have come sprinting. Sequin (8) tried the dirt here in the Alcibiades last year and ran ok. Her best races are on the main track, but she holds a significant class edge over many of these. Lea’s Princess (12) has run well on the turf in her last two. Her only dirt try was in the slop in her debut, which didn’t go well. I’d be willing to give her a second look on the main track today.
Race 8: $40,000 Claiming NW2L, 7 Furlongs, My Picks: 4-7-6
The two morning line favorites feel a bit vulnerable to be in this spot. I’ll look to Lone Star invader, Dust Devil (4) to get the job done. He’s run well enough against maiden special weight and allowance fields and now drops into the claiming ranks for the first time. The 7 Furlong distance should suit him well, and he’s running as gelding for the first time. And Seek (7) keeps firing competitive efforts on the main track, but has only one win in 19 tries to show for it. He’s more of an exotics player for me, although, he drops to the lowest level so far in his career. Market Analysis (6) will get played in here as his first two career tries were very good. He was a bit dull in his return at Pimlico, but figures to do better stretching back out to seven furlongs. I don’t love that he’s in for the tag, but, I think he’s good enough to figure in the exotics.
Race 9: Allowance NW3X, F/M, 1 Mile Turf, My Picks: 9-7-4
The feature race and the only race on the turf today features a full field. Clara Peeters (9) was strong two back in the De La Rose at Saratoga, when narrowly defeated by next out Grade 3 winner, Viadera. She had a decent effort last out, but was closing wide on a course that was not kind to horses closing wide. She can handle a softer course, which she is likely to get today and should rebound nicely. Complicit (7) may be the best value in the race at 12-1. Toss her last in the 11 Furlong Glen Falls, when she was beaten by next out Grade 1 winner, Civil Union. Her two turn races at the mile and the mile and 1/16 distances fit nicely here. Lady Lawyer (4) has the most potential in the field, but she needs to prove that she has the same acceleration at two turns, as she does at one turn. She’ll likely be a short price while navigating that unknown.
Race 10: Maiden Special Weight, 2yoF, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 8-4-1
The finale is the second division of the maiden special weight for two year old fillies, this one also having seven out of nine first time starters. Super Sport (8) and Mucho Macho Momma (4) are the two that have run and they come out of both heats of a split maiden special at Churchill last month. Super Sport was well back in her heat, but hit the gate, rushed up, and then stopped badly. I’d be willing to play her back, as she’ll likely offer more value this time in her second try. Mucho Macho Momma was ignored at the windows, but ran on well to be fourth in the faster of the two heats. Second place finisher, Littlestituous, came back to win her next start, so clearly that race was live. Devilish Wit (1) is the morning line favorite, as she is a well-bred, Asmussen first timer from the Winchell barn. I don’t love the rail for her though, especially at a short number.