It looks like a great fall day today at Keeneland, the sun will shine bright on my old Kentucky home.
Race 1
5-3-2
5- Tidal Effect- we start the day with a short field going a mile and a 16th. I like the fact that this guy comes in off a bit of arrest with some really nice workouts for a trainer that has done well with the limited starters at the meet. His speed figures match up well with this class and the field.
3- Coworker – i’m basing this pic basically off his last race at Churchill where he seem to like the distance in the drop down to a class that was more manageable.
2- Final cut – he really woke up in his last race at Indiana and I’m looking for a similar running style just off the engine.
Race 2
3-6-8
3- Fire side kitten – I really like the breeding hear out of kittens joy and a Galileo mare for high-end connections. This is one you’ll have to watch the Todd board on her as I don’t think you’ll get the morning line odds when they go to the gate.
6- New day dawning- her first race on paper does not look great but it is actually a nice first time start. I think she’ll do much better on a surface she is bred for for quality connections.
8- Rain dance- I also see value for this two-year-old in a race that’s wide-open as I feel she will do much better in her second start off some very nice workouts.
Race 3
6-3-10
6- Tiny Danza- there’s a few things this guy should appreciate mainly the drop down in class and the extended distance. Also adds blinkers in which the trainer has done very well in similar situations. One of my only concerns is he was purchased for only $3000 as there must be some flaws in his make up.
3- Wild Cat West- Quality connections go here for this first time starter awesome nice work outs mainly the October 2 Keeneland 5 furlong. Watching the tote board will help.
10- Catholic guilt- like the jockey change here for this high and trainer in the drop-down in class. Expect value.
Race 4
7-9-10
7- Topshop- I am hoping to get somewhere around the morning light odds for this value play that is dropping down significantly. The trainer shows some high percentages with maiden special weight to maiden claiming and first time blinkers.
9- Davidic Line- this guy showed a really nice race last out at Churchill when dropped into the same class with the same rider as he just missed as the favourite he should be right there today.
10- Cold Smoke- coming from the outside post this colt drops down big time for the second start for a trainer that has done well with this angle and many others.
Race 5
3-5-9
3- My Galina- I like the change in trainers and also the speed figures for this filly. I think she’ll get out of the gate very well in the distance should suit her well.
5- Hidden facts- she’s always shown very good speed as she is lead at some point in her last seven races, I would like to see her sit just back in this abbreviated distance and move forward in the stretch. Some nice work coming into this race.
9- Elle’s Town- I like the racing style and the connections here and definitely should provide a price.
Race 6
6-3-8-7-11
6- Raison d’être – loving the connections here and loving the breeding for this high-priced two-year-old. The trainer loves this filly and I expect a very nice first start.
3- Bayerness- Bayern offspring have done well lately at this meet and this one jump so based on the morning line in the quality connections with some nice workouts.
8- Private collection- this Curlin filly looks ready to go based on her last morning workout that really jumped off the page.
Race 7
3-5-9-2
3- Secretary at war- Second time out for Cox and should be in better shape after his first outing in a long time. I’d be hoping for 6 to 1 morning line but would take anything over four.
5- Emmaus – if you look at his Ford North American starts he’s been running against much tougher and doing quite well since coming over. One of my concerns is the trainer has not had a stellar season in a very low percentage in wins.
9- Cullen Road- this guy will be fairly low odds for quality connections and what really jumps out to me is his two for two at Keeneland.
Race 8
4-9-7
4- Proud Emma – I really like this filly today and she comes off a mid range lay off with some nice works for a very high-quality trainer rider combination. Morning line odds would be a gift.
9- High Regard- I was raised against tougher recently and should enjoy the drop-down. Show some nice bead figures that should do very well against these.
7- Drinking Dixie- value play here as there are some past results that felt well with these mainly her June prairie meadows start against equality field.
Race 9
7-10-2-9
7- Catch a Bid- she is ultra consistent in capable of winning this grade 3. Her speed figures will work well here and should be close to the pace throughout.
10- Turf War- another Chad Brown student that has done well since coming over from Europe. The distance may be an issue as she stretches out for the first time but is bred to run longer.
2- Blowout- Yes a Chad Brown triple!! We have seen it before.
Race 10
7-9-3-4
7- Fra Mauro- i’ve been watching this guy for a while and I think it fits very well in the days finale. Expect a low price as he drops down to a level where he should do well. One note to point out is that I’m not excited about the trainer or writers meet so far.
9- Troy Ounce- Takes another drop here looking for his second lifetime score and should be prominent with this class.
3- She Love Me- comes in office summer layoff for a trainer that has done well with this angle and shows some average workouts. Should get some value here with a horse thats been consistent.
Good Luck today and as always pick your spots wisely!