Friday action from Keeneland offers a 10 race card, with the feature being the Grade 3 Pin Oak Valley View Stakes offering a full field of three year old fillies on the turf.
Race 1: $50,000 Maiden Claiming, 2yoF, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 4-6-7
My plan for the opener is to try to beat the Chad Brown filly, as the drop in class and surface switch off a dull debut offers little encouragement for a horse that will be well bet just because of her connections. Diodoro sends out Mindy’s Way (4), who debuts for a tag that is the same amount as her purchase price. She has a solid string of workouts and is well spotted to face a field that doesn’t appear to be very strong. Diodoro’s horses have hit the board 9 times in 11 starts at this meet thus far, with four of them finding the Winner’s Circle. Grapevine (6) paired her Beyer figures in two starts on synthetics with maiden special weight foes. There have been next out winners in both of her races, so she has been facing respectable fields. She drops and moves to the dirt where she should have a good shot to make the early lead. Golden Account (7) debuted in a maiden special weight at Kentucky Downs when Royal Approval (next out winner of the Matron stakes at Belmont) crushed that field. She too, drops and switches surfaces, and could have a stamina advantage while cutting back slightly from 6 and ½ Furlongs last out.
Race 2: $8,000 Claiming, F/M, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 5-3-8-1
The lower level claiming races at Keeneland are usually quite perplexing handicapping puzzles, and this race is no exception. There are eight horses scheduled to run coming from seven different racetracks, exiting a variety of races at different class levels. Asmussen and Ward have the principal threats in here with Sworn Silence (5) and Hetty G. (3). Sworn Silence was a close third at this level when attending the pace at Churchill last out. She is better when sitting a little further back and she seems to get a field with some cheap speed that will set her up. Hetty G. (3) is the best of the speed horses, coming off a win with NW3L claimers at Belmont last time out. She joins Ward’s Kentucky string and should be right there with these. There’s two longshots that intrigue me a little that could offer some value. Money Inthe Stars (8) ships east and makes her first start in over a year. She has run ok off a long layoff before and she gets a ten pound weight break with Chel-C Bailey riding. Double Down Britt (1) ships up from Evangeline after being claimed in her last two starts. She moves up in class, but has run races that would be competitive at this level. She too may get a good set up to come from off the pace.
Race 3: Maiden Special Weight, 2yoF, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 2-7-1
Euphoric (2) was up on a very hot early pace in her debut at Churchill, where she almost made the front and then faded in the later stages of the race. Flint’s horses usually improve second out and I think she’ll benefit from the experience. Empress Catherine (7) was purchased for $385,000 last year and boasts a long string of workouts for the Asmussen barn. She’s been stabled at Ellis, so I’m not sure she’s one of the best babies he has in his massive operation, but she finds a soft looking field for the condition. Patty H (1) tried the flat mile last out and found that to be a little too far of a journey for her, Her race at this level on Opening Day of the summer meet was solid, and she should be stronger while cutting back to a sprint.
Race 4: Maiden Special Weight 2yo, 1 Mile, Turf: My Picks: 6-14-11-8
This is a wide open, full field with lots of chances. I’ll side with Hard Knocking (6) who took a big step forward in his second career start at Kentucky Downs. He should get better at two turns after sprinting in both career tries. Wentu (14) will need some help to draw in and if he does, he’ll have a tough post, but he was dead game at the distance, just yielding late at Kentucky Downs in his last start. He handled a good turf course, so if the course is a little softer, that shouldn’t be an issue. Lavish McTavish (11) debuts for Cherie DeVaux, who has some gaudy numbers with horses making their career debut. Optimus Kat (8) exits a non-race where the starting gate malfunctioned at Kentucky Downs last out, but he still ran one well to be fifth. The winner of that race formally broke his maiden here last week.
Race 5: $30,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile and 1/8: My Picks: 1-4-2
This nine furlong maiden claiming contest is a real puzzler, as there are many that don’t seem to want to win. Tiz Light The Way (1) drops to his lowest level and makes the surface switch from turf to dirt. He seems to have the best early speed and rail position. I think he prefers the turf, but he’s run well enough on the dirt to be competitive here. Scott Pond (4) also switches surfaces, but this son of Lemon Drop Kid has never been on the main track. His pedigree should translate to either surface and he’s cutting back from a 12 Furlong race. Perhaps that stamina edge may help late when many of these could be sucking wind in the stretch. Tribulation (2) makes start number and drops off a decent debut against 50K maiden claimers last month at Churchill. He’s bred to get two turns and should be a factor here.
Race 6: $30,000 Claiming NW3L or 3yo, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 7-5-8
Cardiac Kitten (7) is strictly the one to beat in this claiming race where many are coming off layoffs and are not in the best current form. He has run four solid races in a row, two on turf and two on dirt. His race here at this distance last year was very good against similar competition. I like playing high percentage trainers from smaller circuits when they bring their horses to bigger circuits, and that is the case with Elgar (5). He makes his first start since March and his first start for Jordan Blair (winning at a 21% clip with 92 starters in 2020). His last three dirt races put him right in the mix with this group if he’s able to duplicate those efforts. Adhhar (8) moves up in class after beating NW2L claimers at the same tag last out at Churchill. He’ll be on the scene late in this one.
Race 7: NW2X Allowance, 5 and ½ Furlongs Turf, My Picks: 11-3-4
The two principal players in this race are coming from very different paths. Competitive Saint (11) drops in class after being eased in a disastrous effort in the Grade 3 Franklin Sampson at Kentucky Downs. Two back he was second in stakes company at Saratoga. He faces older foes today, but the three year old sprinters on the grass this year have been pretty sharp. I think the races sets up better for him as opposed to Never Have I Ever (3) who has been beating up on inferior competition at Arlington. He has been really good since he was claimed, running three monster efforts in a row. They’ll have to catch him, but there are other speed types in here that will make life difficult. Race Driver (4) was going well this winter and ran very nice race in his first start at the Fair Grounds. He is a deep closer in a field with a good amount of early speed. He’s been freshened up after facing nice horses like Maven and Jack and Noah in his last two. If his price floats up, he’s definitely worth a stab here.
Race 8: Optional $150,000 Claiming/NW4X Allowance 6 Furlongs, My Picks: 6-1-2
This is an unusual condition, as you don’t see a ton of NW4X allowance races or high level claiming races. Three of the six here are former stakes winners and five of the six have hit the board in graded stakes races. Admiral Lynch (6) ran on Preakness Day two weeks ago, and was worn down with a hot early pace in the DeFrancis Dash. He should get a great trip today on or near the lead. He crushed a few of these at Saratoga in July. Cool Arrow (1) exits a Grade 3 win in the Smile Sprint at Gulfstream last out. He’s won three straight races at the distance in South Florida ad now ships for the first time while running for Terri Pompay. Honest Mischief (2) was put up via DQ in a strong field at Churchill last out the OC/NW3X level. He’s always been a real nice horse with a tremendous pedigree, but he still feels like a bit of an underachiever.
Race 9: The Grade 3 Pin Oak Valley View, 3yoF, 1 Mile and 1/16 Turf, My Picks: 4-11-5
This is an absolutely wide open contest with a full field of twelve three year old fillies. There is a decent amount of early speed, so I’m looking for horses that have the ability to close. Walk In Marrakesh (4) may offer some value after turning in a dull effort against Sharing in the Edgewood last out. She didn’t have a clean break and never relaxed for Castellano. She was really good on this course in the Appalachian two back when she just got nipped at the wire by Enola Gay. She’s better than her last race indicates. Stunning Sky (11) has been improving with each start for Maker. The three that beat her in the Dueling Grounds Oaks last time, have all come back to run very well in their next starts. She was on the short of two photos in both of her previous races at Saratoga. The cutback is a little bit of a concern, but she is a nice filly that should be flying home late. Witez (5) is another improving closer that has really look vastly improved in her last two starts. She just missed to the Lake George most recently and should be running home late again today.
Race 10: $20,000 Claiming NW2L, F/M 6 and 1/2 Furlongs: My Picks: 2-3-6
The finale is a complete head scratcher to me, as there is a lot of inconsistent form, which could be expected in a restricted claiming event. Shesdiamonite (2) debuted in a weak maiden special weight race at Thistledown, but she won that race for fun. There’s reason to believe that she’ll improve somewhat off that effort, and this isn’t a terribly hard step up in class for her. Bejarano taking the mount is a plus. Ms. Malevolence (3) returns to dirt after a dull effort on the grass with better horses at Kentucky Downs. Her dirt form, while not spectacular, is reasonably consistent. I have a few apprehensions about the 6 and ½ furlongs for her, but I still think she’s one of the more likely choices in here. Destiny’s Darling (6) is the likely favorite off a big effort in allowance company at Mountaineer last out. Looking at her odds and her running lines, I don’t think she faced horses that were much better than these last time. She and the horse that beat her ran very hard and dueled all the way home, finishing almost 9 lengths in front of the third place finisher. Especially at a shorter price, I do worry about a bounce, as I wonder if that race took a lot out of her.