This is the third Friday in a row that you’ll have to keep an eye on the weather. Some potential rain is forecasted for early in the morning. *IF the races come off the turn, you’ll need to scrap the analysis for those. The surface change will undoubtedly lead to many scratches.
If turf racing is a go, it should be a good day of racing. Many competitive races lined up.
Race 1
#8 Brerry
Second race of the meet for this guy. He ran a pretty good 2nd in a field of 11 at this level a couple weeks ago. He doesn’t really love to win, lots of minor awards for this guy lately. But I think this is a field he could potentially beat. His main rival is horse that he beat last time out. Adam Beschizza rides.
#3 Turner Time
This guy looks to be the other contender in here. I referenced him in my analysis for the horse above. He does have some tactical speed, so he usually puts himself him a good position. He does like to win, 5 wins in 11 lifetime starts. I think 6F might be his preferred distance, so I’m not sure about this 7F trip for him. Florent Geroux in the saddle for trainer Matt Shirer.
Race 2
#5 Sally’s Curlin
Dale Romans sends out this 3YO daughter by Curlin. She raced one time at Gulfstream over the winter. That was an okay effort, losing to a highly touted runner that day. I think the key for her today is the stretch out in distance to a mile and an eighth. She’s had an even running style in her one turn races, and her breeding suggests the distance should be to her liking. Her layoff lines between races do concern me a little, she’s probably had issues, but I’m hoping for a nice effort from her today. Romans’ main man Albarado rides.
#3 Gorgeous in Rags
This filly comes from the Brendan Walsh barn, and he’s having a very nice Keeneland meet. Her last race about a month ago at Gulfstream was off a year and a half layoff, and I thought it was a respectable showing. She only beat one horse, but she only lost by about 2 lengths. That race was on the grass, and today she gets the dirt, which her breeding suggests should be a benefit. Tyler Gaffalione rides, and he hits at 28% when he teams up with Walsh.
#8 Lady Hester
This is a beautifully bred mare. By Bernardini, out of the talented mare Questing. However, those nice bloodlines haven’t translated to much success on the racetrack. She’s still a maiden at 5 years old. 0-9 so far. She’s now in the barn of Ken McPeek, we’ll see if that leads to an improvement. She does look to be one of the main pace presences in here, so that could give her an advantage. Brian Hernandez Jr in the saddle.
Race 3
#2 Royal Charlotte
This filly is coming off a sharp debut victory at Gulfstream last month. She broke on top, then took back to third and rated nicely, and then pulled away in the stretch. I love to see that versatility in a first time starter, if she can take another step forward, she will be tough to beat. Jose Ortiz will ride.
#1 Into the South
This girl is by far the most experienced runner in the field, having 7 lifetime starts so far. She ran some good races last summer as a 2YO, and her most recent race at Oaklawn was also a nice effort. She doesn’t look to be as quick early as some of these other ones, but she finishes pretty well. Gets Leparoux in the saddle; I’m expecting a ground saving trip and then she’ll be rolling late.
#6 Into Mystic
First start of the year for this one, and also her first start for her new trainer Todd Fincher. He’s 24% with horses first time in his barn, and also 20% off the layoff. She looks to be working very well, including two works here at Keeneland. She broke her maiden here last fall, so we know she likes this track. Draws a nice outside post, too. Luis Saez has the mount.
Race 4
#11 Spun Line
I kinda like this filly in here. Her two fast main track races were solid. I’m thinking the cutback to a one turn race here will be to her liking. I’m thinking she has enough speed to be forwardly placed in the early going. I don’t love her post position for this race, but I’m hoping she can overcome that. I’m also a little concerned about the trainer situation. Her two good races were for trainer Brad Cox. She was claimed two back, and her first start for new trainer Lee Rossi was not a good one. I’m hoping that was just a case of her not liking the turf. We shall see. Jack Gilligan in saddle.
#5 Tryingtolookpretty
This filly is making just her second career start. She debuted at Oaklawn last month. She had a rough break that day and that put her way behind. She did finish with a little interest and was able to split the field. She’s had a little time off to regroup after that race. Trainer Phillip Sims is 17% with second time starters, and 21% with this type of layoff. Gabriel Saez is the rider. He’s had a chilly meet, but he’s more than capable of getting a winner.
#9 Don’t Tell Lydia
Definitely the veteran of this group. 11 starts under her belt so far. She’s run a couple decent races in the past. I think this distance will suit her well, and she’s got a hot trainer in her corner. Rudy Brisset has had a nice coupe weeks lately. Florent Geroux rides, and he’s been aboard a couple times before; and she has run good races for him. Probably won’t show a lot of speed early on, but could grind her way into the money.
Race 5
#4 Sinwaan
I must admit, I’m making this pick a little bit with my heart. Only because I bet her in her debut at Gulfstream, and I think she had excuses that day. So I’m giving her another shot today. Hopefully she can break a little sharper. Horses trained be Kiaran McLaughlin usually improve in their second start. The Chad horse that beat her in her debut runs earlier on this card, so seeing how that one runs could give an indication of how strong that maiden race was.
#2 Hoppa
First timer here by Uncle Mo, trained by Brad Cox. She has a great win early pedigree. She also has some super fast works for the gate, so I’m thinking she could be a rocket out of there today. Cox has had a great meet, and he’s good with all these angles: FTS, MSW, etc. I’m expecting a good showing from this Don Alberto homebred. Flo rides.
#9 Better Biz
Another first time starter here. Phil D’Amato sends this one in from SoCal. You’re seeing that a lot these days because of the issues that have been happening at Santa Anita. This filly is by the young sire Fed Biz. D’Amato is pretty good with debuters (14%), and she has a work over this track, so I’m thinking she’s ready for a good effort. Tyler Gafflione is the pilot.
Race 6
#6 Fast Boat
This guy comes in off a really nice allowance win at the Fair Grounds. He sat a nice trip, and just kicked clear in the stretch. This guy showed some decent talent a couple years ago as a 2YO. He faced some really nice runners back then including, Flameaway and Analyze It. He’s trained by Joe Sharp, and turf sprints is definitely a strength of his, hitting at 33%. He has a couple of strong works coming into this race. He could be ready to run another strong effort. Sharp’s main guy Adam Beschizza is in the saddle.
#7 What’sontheagenda
Another Cali transplant here. Doug O’Neill trains this speed burner. He definitely looks to be one of the main pace players in here, and that California speed is always dangerous. He’s had a couple months off, but he was in pretty good form at the time. He actually ran a race here at Keeneland last spring also. He finished second that day, only losing by a half length. He has a bullet work over the training track, he looks to be ready. Jose Ortiz takes the call.
#9 Blackout
This one is also from SoCal. Peter Miller brings this one to town. Obviously, as we know, turf sprints are a specialty of Miller’s. This horse has good tactical speed but doesn’t need the lead. I do wonder if this distance is a tad short for him, maybe 6 or 6.5F would be better. But I still expect a good effort. Joel Rosario is the pilot.
Race 7
#3 Guarana
No real shock here. I’m gonna go with the Chad Brown firster. I don’t really love any of the other horses with experience in here. She’s been working steadily for this, and she has a very nice pedigree. Chad is having a great meet, and he gets Jose Ortiz to ride.
#10 Private Message
Of all the horses with experience in here, this is the one that I like the most. Although, just like in her debut, she draws the far outside here. So I’m not sure what kind of trip she’ll get. In her only previous start she didn’t show a lot of early pace, but she did finish with some interest. This daughter of Maclean’s Music was purchased for $200,000. That’s eight times the stud fee, so they probably think pretty highly of this girl. If she can take a step forward here, she could definitely have a say in the outcome.
#7 Boca Bloom
This City Zip filly is also making her second career start. Trainer Neil Howard debuted her on turf at the Fair Grounds last month. She just kind of ran evenly that day, but she did finish 6th in a field of 12. So that’s not too terrible. Gets the switch to dirt today, which shouldn’t be an issue. Also has a good wet track pedigree, should we get some rain. Brian Hernandez Jr gets aboard today.
Race 8
#9 Jehozacat
I’m taking a little bit of a shot in here with this filly. She’s trained by Arnaud Delacour, who is extremely solid. He’s 22% second off the layoff, which is what this girl is doing today. Her last race was off a 10 month layoff, and her first start as a 4YO. She looked quite impressive sitting in the second flight of runners, and then just exploding away in the stretch. She’s 2 for 2 going today’s one mile distance. I’m hoping for a similar type trip today, there looks to be a decent amount of speed in here. So hopefully she rates and can get a stalking position. Declan Cannon rode her to her last victory and he’s back up today.
#8 Amandine
Sorry if I’m a broken record, but yet another SoCal shipper here. Jeff Mullins trains. When she came to the states last fall she ran a couple of bang up races right off the bat. She ran into the fabulous mare Vasilika her last starts. She’s been freshened up since February. Her late closing running style looks to be a benefit today as there should be pace in front of her. She gets a jockey in Rosario that I think will fit her perfectly. I look for her to be running on strongly down the lane.
#1 Munchkin Money
This a hard knocking New York bred here. She’s 6 for 19 lifetime. And 5 for 7 in the exacta going a mile. She’s coming off back to back wins down at Gulfstream over the winter. Trainer Brian Lynch is having a nice meet, and he gets John Velazquez to ride. She’s drawn inside, so hopefully that allows her to save some ground, and then find a seam turning for home.
Race 9
#8 Golden Award
This filly will be trying stakes company for the first, but I think she has a lot of talent. All the layoff lines in her PPs are a bit of a concern, she’s presumably had her share of issues. But she seems to be working well and could be primed for a big effort here. They put blinkers on after her debut, and since then she’s finished in the exacta in all five subsequent starts; including 3 straight wins. Those wins were maiden, first level allowance, and second level allowance. That’s a difficult task, beating those ascending levels at first asking. She has good tactical speed, but doesn’t need the lead. So hopefully with a clean break can get a good position. Gafflione has ridden her to her last two victories, and he’s aboard today.
#6 La Force
Trainer Patty Gallagher brings this mare in from Santa Anita. She ran some really good races at big odds last summer, including a couple close loses to Unique Bella. My concern with her is that she doesn’t love to win. On dirt she has just one win, but six seconds. So I wouldn’t want to take a short price on her. She also hasn’t raced since November, so we’ll see if she needs this one today. Gallagher is about 11% of the layoff. Drayden Van Dyke comes with her to ride.
#1 Jala Jala
The rare Mexican bred here. She came to the states back in December and had a nice win that day. She followed that up with a good second going a mile. Her last race going 7F was just too short I think. Today’s distance should suit her better, and her previous three tries at the distance, she hit the board in them all. Luis Saez takes the mount. Nothing wrong with that.
Race 10
#8 The Rock Says
Second time starter for trainer Stanley Hugh. He ran a good 2nd in his debut of Gulfstream. The third place finisher in that race returned to win a MSW event here at Keeneland just a couple days ago. Hugh is off to a nice start in 2019, with limited runners. I expect a midpack trip, and then hopefully find some running room in the stretch. Luis Saez rides, he is 4-10 when teaming up with Hugh for the past year.
#7 The Last Zip
Mike Stidham brings this gelding in from the Fair Grounds. Two starts for him so far, both sprinting. He made good account of himself in both races, losing by less than a length in each. Gets to stretch out today to a mile, shouldn’t be an issue for him. And this a good angle for Stidham, 27% sprint to route. He could be forwardly placed since he’s coming out of those sprint races. The red hot Joel Rosario takes the call.
#6 Scattered Strikes
This Sam-Son Farm homebred is trained by Graham Motion. He’ll be making career start number two. His first race was kind of interesting. He set a very honest pace, and hung around for third. However, he lost by nine lengths. On paper that might not look great. But I’m willing to give all the credit to the winner that day, that was a very nice runner from the Todd Pletcher barn. Even for getting beat by nine lengths, he still earned a decent speed figure. Motion is 21% with second time starters, and John Velazquez rides.