- Zyramid- Santana Jr/Asmussen
– One of two Asmussen horses in this 2yo Stakes race. This colt broke his maiden at Saratoga and has a trip over the Churchill Downs surface but the time in Kentucky was on the slop. I personally think this horse is a two turn colt, but the rail post and stretch out will both be firsts here. He has some early pace and breaking from the inside Santana Jr, will have to send early. Also another plus is that Santana chose this one over the 7/2 ML shot, in which he rode to a 2nd in a Grade 3 at Churchill. USE.
2. Letmeno- Borel/ Wilkes
- This Ellis Park shipper is still green. He started slow in debut and went 4ws and rolled home at 20/1. Then he came back a little over a month later and ran 2nd to Rowdy Yates in the Ellis Park Juvenile. However, he was shuffled at the 5/16th pole which in the end he flattened out and couldn’t catch the winner. A clean trip and a little more distance could help him.
- 3. Scabbard- Lanerie/ Kenneally
- The good old horse of two names. This colt formerly known as Noose before fans were outraged, goes by Scabbard now. He broke his maiden a Churchill in June, with a 69 beyer. He then shipped in to Saratoga for the Saratoga Special, in which he ran a strong second to Green Light Go who when healthy might be the most proven 2yo so far. Distance might be an issue but I can’t really tell for certain.
- 4. Rowdy Yates- Baze/ Asmussen
- I would consider him to be the horse for course. Yet, I think 2 turns might be his downfall. He will be contending for the lead but I don’t think he is the quickest in the field. He might need the lead to win and the fact Santana is on the #1 instead and Baze stays on this one is also concerning. This is also the largest field he has faced and first time two turns. USE with Caution.
- 5. Automate- Geroux/ Desormeaux
- I think turf is more in this horses pedigree but you can’t really see that because he might want distance on turf, but he also ran in a 500K stakes at Kentucky Downs first time going long on turf. He can win on dirt but I don’t think he is stakes winner on dirt.
- 6. Flute Maker- J. Ortiz/ McPeek
-Flute Maker dominated on the sloppy off the turf condition last time out to break his maiden at Saratoga. Does he like the sloppy going more than a fast track, possibly? A lot of questions for me on this one.
7. Juggernaut- Graham/ Desormeaux
-This colt set strong early fractions and earned a 131 timeformUS early pace rating in his only start which was a 6 ¼ length debut victory at Ellis. He won at 26/1 in a 12 horse field. He should take well to the distance and will try for the lead early.
8. Dennis’ Moment- I. Ortiz Jr/ Romans
- This is the best horse in the field from a visual standpoint. He fell and lost the jockey in debut at Churchill. Then he came back and won by 19 ¼ lengths and earned a 97 beyer. He was on the Derby radar just off of that performance. Irad Ortiz fell in love with the hype and hopped aboard instead of Miguel Mena. Will he get the lead? Will he be able to rate? Did he crush a weak field? Is he worth being a single at 2/5 ? Up to you to decide.
- 9. Lebda- McCarthy/ Gonzalez
-This Mid Atlantic shipper, is nothing but speed and in my opinion is going to get the lead. He is a sprinter and I think his best is at 1 turn. Probably will make the speed horses earn the lead or have to rate.
10. January Won- Hernandez Jr./ McPeek
- This colt won in debut with no lasix at Saratoga and the horse he beat Beyond Gone, came back to win next time out. He gets the 10 hole sadly, but does get Lasix for the first time for the stretch out. Jose Ortiz chose the 6 over him though and with the post I would have to pass in verticals.
PICKS- 1-8-4-2-10