Race 1: 7-5-4
#7 ROYALLY COOL makes his first start for the Navarro barn after the claim. Filly has good early speed and can control the race. Might offer a price after 2 disappointing efforts. #5 SKY RUN comes back off a game effort where she dueled for the lead and got caught by a nose at a slightly lower level. #4 PAPA’S GIRL was impressive breaking her maiden by over 10 lengths two back. Had no chance against highly regarded Queen of Beas last race. Gets back to easier company here.
Race 2: 8-11-7
#8 ICE SHOW is 3 for 7 lifetime and making her second start in open company after running a decent third. Speed figures fit here. #11 DAHLONEGA hasn’t won since August but has been running in optional claimers without a tag. Drops down to a level she can be very competitive at. Low percentage trainer kept me away from picking this horse on top. #7 FIRST APPEAL tried a mile last time and really lacked a good run late. Back to 5 panels where she has had some success and good speed figures.
Race 3: 4-6-5
#4 RADIANTRITHYM looks ready here after winning last time out. Previously had two unsuccessful tries at a mile. This horse seems like a sprinting type with a little bit of speed. Goes out for the top barn. #6 MISS CONTESSA hasn’t won a race in her last 12 starts. She has run competitively at a high level and just missed a few times. Might not be good enough but I think they found the right level here with her. #5 TRAPPINGSOFSILVER comes to the McPeek barn after shipping from MVR. The long layoff doesn’t inspire much confidence but they run her in a race where they can’t lose her, so that’s positive. Might be a price.
Race 4: 5-2-7
#5 IRISH FIX seems logical having raced well in three straight tries at this level. I’m not willing to take too short of a price here but a likely horse to have on top. #2 GRAN LETIZIA is dropping way down off the layoff after failing to pose any significate threat to the winners in her last two. #7 HEIDI HO broke her maiden well two back and was laid off a few months. She’ll be coming second off the layoff today and dropping from the 30k level to the 16k level.
Race 5: 6-7-8
#6 SAINT LARNED has some speed and a drop in class will help. Tough race so I think we can avoid the likely chalk. #8 SMOOTH AS was claimed first time out for 25k. Horse caught a sloppy track and didn’t do much running. Gets blinkers today. Look for an improvement. #7 GUERRERON has the best figs of the group and three second place races at this level before running 5th at the 25k level. Back to 16 and should be the main threat.
Race 6: 1-5-10
#1 MEZCALITA shortens up from 6f to 5f and goes dirt to turf. Bullet work on the turf last weekend. Pletcher is good with second time starters. Looking for a price with this horse hopefully flying under the radar. #5 SUPER PATRIOTIC ran a stellar race to lose by only a neck last time out under similar conditions. Finished ahead of a few of today’s foes. #10 LADY GRACE hopes to get it done after 3 consecutive second place finishes as chalk. Likely favorite.
Race 7: 1-6-7
#1 GUY CABALLERO makes his second start locally after running third at 62kOC level. Drops to the 25kOC level and has the speed figs to win. Has got to improve as he has not found the winners circle since 2017. #6 DIAMOND BACHELOR comes second off the claim for Navarro after running a good race last time out. Nice work coming in. #7 JUST WHISTLE was a highly regarded 3yo and ran third in the Peter Pan. Was vanned off last June and makes his return. Might need a race.
Race 8: 6-5-8
#6 AL TAWEEL has a good closing kick and ran second in his last two at this level. Looks logical here. #5 COAL TRUTH ran a great race to break his maiden last time. I’m picking him second, hoping that his race was legit and wasn’t totally due to the sloppy track. #8 SOMETHING BIRD is 11 for 23 in the money but that win against winners has been elusive. Has speed figures that make him competitive.
Race 9: 10-11-1
#10 LI’L MEATBALL showed good form last year but has struggled of late. Gets some class relief and looks for a turn around. I’m trying this one at a price. #11 MR JOSHUA has some speed and I’m not sure they can catch him if he uses it. Zerpa has his go-to front running jockey Jaramillo aboard. #1 POLAR JET makes his first start in for a tag. 7 for 10 in the money at this distance.
Race 10: 12-9-11
#12 BAD BOY EJ has Irad stay aboard and hopefully catches a turf race that stays on. Has been unlucky with 3 of his 7 races on a sloppy track taken off the turf. Post position is tough but I think he will be there at the finish. #9 TRUMP’S KITTEN stretches back out after stumbling at the start and finishing well as an odds-on favorite at this level last time. #11 CONFORTO will be a big price, but this class drop will help. Didn’t have a good trip last time and most likely won’t here with the outside post. I give him a shot underneath at a price.