Gulfstream Park 2/5/2020
By: Michael Jordan Twitter: @mhjpicks
Race 1
We start today’s tough card with a nice sized field for a turf dash of 5f. This race, as most 25k maiden claimers are, is pretty open. None of the previous starters have anything that stands out, landing me on first timer #10 Call Curt who has a tough position draw to overcome. He is in the capable hands of Casse and Zayas with a steady work tab leading up to this race. Another first timer to pay attention to is the #6 Monetized for Braddy and Vasquez. It is a tepid nod as Braddy is not particularly known for having first timers ready to fire, but this one comes off a bullet work. If he can clear the group, #11 Bolt could do so to the lead and not look back. He has shown early speed bolting to the lead in several races, however has been a fader.
10-6-11
Race 2
We move to the dirt for race 2, where there is an anchor choice in the #5 Road to Peace. He will likely be odds on, but his speed figures average 10 points higher than anyone else in this contest. Joseph is having a great meet and looks to add another winner here. #1 Sweet Giant is the only other entry to have a speed figure in the range of my top choice and that was in July 2019 with regression since. However should there be an issue with the odds on favorite this one will be in the mix. #2 Pink Lemonade is the likely pace and could steal one at 12-1 since the others haven’t showed much interest in passing anyone and he adds blinkers to keep him focused.
5-1-2
Race 3
#2 Pick Up the Fone is first off the claim for Navarro and while that angle % has dropped to 17% for him, he picked up a quality filly here from the Maker barn. Saez will have this one out on the lead and assuming she can get a good start. If so watch out. #7 Palace Two Step will be dancing with the 2 horse on the front end and has shown lasting power in the past. She was third to a quality winner and next out winner in her last. #4 Secret Miss tries grass for the first time and moves up in class so connections must think they have something going. I’m not sold but will likely be involved in the pace.
2-7-4
Race 4
This looks like the kind of race that could have a big price winner. #9Fashion Frame has been a little soft on the figures but improved last out and is off back to back bullet works. I don’t know if blinkers will help but I like the idea of changing something to get this one’s talent out. #2 Ebony Bay could very well be that torpedo. Keneally is 20% with first time starters and Violence has proven to be a viable sire. It’s hard to ignore #1 Fancified on the drop and she has a couple nice efforts at the distance. This one has been a bit of a pinball though and rail draw may be especially though for her. By talent she could certainly pop one here but at a short price I prefer others. #10, #8 and #12 are all viable options for deeper tickets.
9-2-1
Race 5
It’s time for #2 Justcallmenorman to get rewarded with a win after two nice efforts lost by a neck and a nose. Pompay has this one running well and look for a similar late run at the front runners here. One of those he will likely be trying to catch is #7 Montatham coming off the layoff (18% for McLaughlin) from the maiden score. Saez will ride this one on or near the pace but the question is will he be ready to keep going. #1 Machiavelli is second off for Casse (13%) and should save ground conserving some energy for a late run.
2-7-1
Race 6
#8 Top Seed is off a very sharp bullet work and is primed for this competitive race. A nice angle percentage wise is the team up of McGaughey/Ortiz who are 33% together for 2019-2020 at Gulfstream. #3 Annulaized looks to bounce back after fading in a disappointing first race off the layoff. He also comes in off a bullet work. #7 Propensity, newly in the Mott barn seems to have talent enough to step into a new level of competition. Has run well on/at the pace and that experience could be a difference maker.
8-3-7
Race 7
Nobody is a real stand out in this field. #1 Spicy Nelly is a torpedo play at a ML of 12-1. She is off a decent turf effort and retains the jockey from that race. I think she had a chance to upset with the obvious risk involved with a horse who hasn’t won since 2018. #4 Venezuelan Forever is first off the claim for Delgado (22%) with steady works during the layoff. Thinking she could be refreshed and recharged. I would have preferred to see a workout on #5 Isadorable Aida who has the best recent speed. She is a contender here for multi race but you won’t get much of a price for this one. I think you could spread here with a couple others to stay alive if you so choose, specifically #7 and #9. Consider #2 Vinyardnina in your exotics as she should be running late and can get a piece of the action.
1-4-5
Race 8
#10 Wonder In has had some rough trips but I think will be aided by the outside post and the fact that the horse to his inside should break well. He has the speed to get it done. #7 Bourbon Currency has been off for almost a year and I find that worrisome to a degree, however the talent and back class could come out here today. #9 R Boy Evens is off the maiden win despite losing the whip. I don’t like that there are no reported works since that win but who am I to question a trainer that is 31% in starters from 31-60 days. Would be hard to leave off the #8 Louie’s Kingdom in multi race wagers as he is improving and has nice connections going for him.
10-7-9-8
Race 9
Todd Pletcher has a couple of nice entries in today’s ninth. My top choice will be the “other” Pletcher, #5 Mystic Lancelot who switches to dirt (30% angle) and adds blinkers in an attempt to bring out the talent inside this one. #3 Carpe Omnious looks to seize the opportunity to repeat off an impressive maiden score in December. He is working fantastic and while he benefited from a perfect trip in his maiden he cannot he overlooked. #4 Conquest Day is a tough one to read as the maiden win came on slop. Will need a big improvement to win here, the second start is widely considered the race horses show their most improvement and he has a shot here.
5-3-4
Race 10
#13 Traffic Trouble will be trouble for the field if he makes it in as the AE. Dropping from MSW to claiming and off a bullet workout for Lynch this one is ready to get his photo taken. #11 Longships bobbled in the last race and is primed for a big improvement in his second career start. It’s a pretty open race, and more often than not I look for a torpedo in these scenarios. #7 Rags for Britches has consistent relative speed to the group and perhaps the toke away helped him put some things together. Jockey upgrade to I. Ortiz doesn’t hurt. #6 Right on Kid makes a big class drop but admittedly didn’t do much running in two previous starts. However Kenneally is 21% with this drop angle and 22% with horses coming off a freshening.
13-11-7-6…