We come to the end of the fall racing season at Belmont Park in the final Wednesday off the meet, before moving to the Big A. To be quite honest I didn’t have the best of meets, my Belmont fall stats so far: 48-9-11-10. That said, I have some strong opinions today so let’s get some winners home and finish on a strong note. As always be sure to follow me on twitter @cjfelts87 and be on the lookout for my NYRA coverage at Aqueduct.
Through 19 Daily Gallop writeups Total: 159-39-33-31 (25% win, 65% ITM)
Best Bets: Race 3 #7, Race 4 #10 (on turf only), Race 6 #7, Race 7 #5 (off track only), Race 8 #5 (on turf only)
Race 1 CLM 14k N3L fillies and mares 3up, 6 furlongs
Multi Race- A: 4,2 B: 5,6
Top pick- #4 First Forever
- He’s a maiden on a fast track but I have a feeling the track won’t be listed as fast so you could upgrade him. Jose Lezcano has won on this filly before and she has the speed to press the pace the whole way, plus the cutback in distance might help her.
Second choice- #2 Evan’s Nice Now
- Longshot play here based off the pace scenario, there’s a chance he gets loose on the lead and wires the field.
Underneath- #3 Citizen Matzo, #5 Movie Score, #6 Parlapiano
Race 2 MCL 20k 3up, 6.5 furlongs
Multi Race- A: 4,8 B: 9,7
Top pick- #4 Loaded Joe
- Has the speed to be competitive today and his ability times are close to par for the level. Thinking dirt is his preferred surface as he’s flashed speed at the maiden special level before.
Second choice- #8 Dream’n Demon
- Was involved in the pace in her only 2 races, plus he gets a jock upgrade to Irad Ortiz. 7-2 seems like a nice price on him if he gets a good trip.
Underneath- #7 Single Focus, #9 Cobble Hill
Race 3 CLM 12.5k 3up, 1 1/16 miles
Multi Race- A: 3,7 B: 4,8
Top pick- #7 Peter’s Project
- Hard Knocking 9 year old loves this distance with 11 total wins in 27 starts and his recent form is not as bad as it may appear. The last 2 races at Penn and Saratoga didn’t get the best trips and his handful of races at Finger Lakes this year make him competitive today.
Second choice- #3 One River Place
- In good form winning 2 straight and the distance is a bit of a question but he has enough speed to be involved most of the way around, although this seems like a race where you would single the 7.
Underneath- #2 Shalako, #4 Neighborhood Bully, #8 Runabout
Race 4 MSW 62k state bred 2yo fillies, 7 furlongs widener turf
Multi Race- A: 10,12 B: 4,11 OFF TRACK 7-6
Top pick- #10 Grudge
- Flashed speed in her debut and Carmouche stays aboard, think she shows improvement second out to find the winners circle today. Trainer John Servis is 27% with a $2.34 ROI with maidens 2nd out.
Off Track- #7 Miss Gold Medalist
- Shot in the dark if this race comes off but a 2 year old off track just screams chaos and this first time starter has the highest tomlinson wet figure of 424; you will definitely get a price too.
Underneath- #4 Canarsie Angel, #11 Bella Rose, #12 Surprise Arrival
Race 5 MSW 75k 2yo, 6 furlongs
Multi Race- A: 1,5 B: 6,7
Top pick- #1 Bellavia
- I’m not so concerned about the latter part of the entry (First time starter Farmington Road), but more on Bellavia who is the reason Todd Pletcher’s couple is 9-5 ML. 76 beyer and was green in his debut, Todd Pletcher actually has a positive ROI with his 1st starts as he acquired this Honor Code colt in a private purchase. Picks up Castellano who opts not to ride Chad Brown’s entry (5-1 ML, which should tell you something there), and everything points towards him being tough to beat today.
Second choice- #5 Secret Rules
- If you’re looking to beat the favored entry, check out this 5-1 second timer. Showed speed on a track that was very sloppy track that favored closers that day and has been working very well since, including a 47.6 bullet on October 5. Junior stays on and he will benefit from experience, even with the overnight rain the track shouldn’t be sloppy so that shouldn’t be a concern today.
Underneath- #6 Default Rate, #7 Sixteen Tons
Race 6 ALW 66k n1x state bred fillies and mares 3up, 6 furlongs
Multi Race- A: 1,7 B: 3,6
Top pick- #7 She Takes Charge
- Rosario gets the mount with her again after breaking her maiden by open lengths and that was at 6.5 furlongs. You always want to prefer lightly raced horses in these n1x allowance races moving up the class ladder and she fits that with only 2 career races. 7-2 seems like a good price to get as she cuts back to her preferred distance sprinting.
Second choice- #1 Behind the Couch
- Was vanned off in the Fleet Indian Stakes at Saratoga and drops back into her eligible condition off a slight layoff. 8-5 is too short a price for me so I will be playing against but she must be respected.
Underneath- #3 Bustin Scones, #6 Moon Heist
Race 7 ALW 77k n1x 3up, 1 ⅛ miles inner turf
Multi Race- A: 1,2 B: 9,10 OFF TRACK 5
Top pick- #2 Everyonelovesjames
- 5-1 on a Luis Saez turf frontrunner? Yes please. She does better when routing and Saez has won before on him by open lengths at the n1x condition. She seems like a solid choice on paper to beat the favored Chad Brown entry.
Off Track- #5 Southern Bridge
- If this race comes off, I think Bill Mott would gladly take Johnny V off his other entry and onto the MTO. He wired the field to break his maiden last out and I have a feeling he would do the same today on a track that would have some moisture in it.
Underneath- #9 Chantry Flats, #10 Rapt
***Side note: #6 Mr. Alec looks tough in this spot, but I did not mention him because he his cross entered at Keeneland on Thursday (Race 6). Would include on your tickets if he doesn’t scratch.
Race 8 MSW 62k state bred fillies 2yo, 1 1/16 widener turf
Multi Race- A: 5,6 B: 7,8 OFF TRACK 12-6-9-11
Top pick- #5 I’m Fine
- Showed a nice middle move last time out in her debut going a mile and gets a jock upgrade to Manny Franco. Add in that she broke slow last time she has to be considered a logical player today that can run close to par.
Off Track- #12 Courageous Girl
- MTO needs to get a clean break out of the gate should this race come off but she has flashed speed over a wet surface before and should be competitive today.
Underneath- #1 Mazal Eighteen, #7 Malibu Too, #8 Topaz Bride