Hello and welcome to, unfortunately, the final Thursday of analysis for the Gulfstream Park Championship season. Last week we had two on top winners but a negative ROI, hopefully we can go out in style today. I want to thank everyone who has been following along, and I cannot wait to see you again wherever I end up next covering. Let’s dig in to the races!
RACE 1: 3-2
3-BLUE JEAN KITTEN looks like she will make it a chalky beginning today here, as she drops in for a tag for the first time for Danny Gargan, who has won a third of the last 28 times going from MSW to MC. Switch to leading rider Irad Ortiz today. 2-Noble Maria was 2nd vs $35K last out after a so so effort two back vs similar to today. Like the confidence in the move back up in class today.
RACE 2: 5-6
5-LEAKY CUP looks to be fastest of this field of 6 early in here and am hoping he can stage a repeat of his October 25, 10 length, maiden breaking romp. Has not been seen since setting pace and fading for 3rd on November 15 of last year in an Optional Claimer. Coming in off a bullet 5 furlong work and switches to John Velazquez in the saddle. Don’t think we get the 5-1 M/L though. 6-Smoker stalked pace last out en route to a head maiden breaker and earning a field best 87 BRIS Speed Figure. Should be tough again today especially if some pressures too choice on the front end.
RACE 3: 6-8-3
These 5 furlong turf sprints have been dominated by early speed this meet, but there’s almost none in this beaten claimer, almost. 6-CITY ROC on paper looks to inherit lead by default and really like regular rider Lionel Reyes to them Gate to Wire at double digit odds. . 8-Padilla moves up from $6,250 and is trying turf for first time since last April, which he won an OC by 2 lengths that day. Second off layoff for Ruben Gracida(27% from 22 starters)
RACE 4: 6-2
6-SHE’LL DO will not be her 6-1 M/L in here, but she shouldn’t end up as the favorite either. This is her first time in the maiden claiming ranks, and Trainer Todd Pletcher’s pretty astounding 38% first time MC. Also second time blinkers today. 2-Eye’s Reward is also dropping from MSW level but I’m not sure if she’ll benefit from the extra furlong today.
RACE 5: 6-1-4
RACE 6: 3-6-7
3-SKY CHASER tries MC $20K level for the first time and takes blinkers off after one race with them. Also is making a jock switch to Irad. Coming in off a bullet work and Trainer Ronald Spatz is 30% when able to bring horses back from a race in the 45-90 day range. 6-Purple Girl could be on the lead early here after setting the pace 4 of last 5 races. However, has obviously failed to win any of those any will probably be much shorter than her 3-1 M/L.
RACE 7: 4-2
4-DRINK IN MY HAND won last time out first time off the claim for Tony Attard and is now put in to this protected situation. Should be on or near early lead and could upset probable heavy favorite 2-Charlie The Greek if he’s allowed to get a clear early lead. Charlie was 2nd at this level last out and now cuts back from the 1 Mile distance. However if you look at his record at today’s distance, he only has 1 win from 9 starts, so there’s evidence that he’s far from a lock today.
RACE 8: 8-7-9
8-SAFFIRA is making U.S. debut for Bill Mott and has been off since September 22 of last year. Mott 18% off long layoffs and 19% first time Lasix. Luis Saez rides. 7-Monhegan cuts back from 9 furlongs last race where she was 3rd of 10 after nearly breaking her maiden two back. Gets a big jock upgrade to John Velazquez. 9-Sttike It Royal should be and may have to be showing early speed breaking from the outside but is stretching out to two turns for the first time.
RACE 9: 1-5-2
RACE 10: 2-1-5
2-HEIRESSALL makes return off a 4 month layoff after finishing 2018 with a 3rd place finish in the Florida Millions Distaff Preview at GPW, breaking a 3 race win streak. Has a 3-2-1-0 record here at GP and has never been out of the money in 5 career starts. Should be able to stalk the pace in here that looks to be set between 4-Awesome Mass and the probable favorite 5-Mybigitalianfriend (Vinny Di Virgilio?). 1-Day By Day is first off the claim for Armando De La Cerda(23%) and draws the rail, which is winning at 22% this meet at the 6 furlong distance. Has 5 wins in 15 starts at today’s distance and has only been out of the money once at GP.
RACE 11: 1-7-6
This is a terrible race to end on! 80-0-4-11 is the combined record of the 10 starters, which is why I’m, without a lot of reason, taking a bomb here in 1-BARB’S GRAY GIRL, who is making just her 3rd start on turf after mid pack finishes her first two chances. However if you look both races had beer breaking from post 10, whereas today she draws the rail and should save valuable ground. Also like the jock switch to Jose Batista. 7-R Caribbean Queen makes just her second start and stretches out to a route today. Is first off the claim for Ronald Spatz and Irad replaces brother Jose in the saddle today.