Race 1
4-7-6
#4 Miss My Macho: I know you usually want to see Improvement with two-year-olds but If she can run back to the two 60 Beyers she ran at Saratoga she should win by a ton. Now the negative She didn’t look good at all 2 back although that in the MSW ranks.
#7 Omi Ten: NIce run off the drop-down to today’s level and got claimed out of that by Saffi Joseph who is excellent off the claim and with how many of his I have among my picks im hoping he has a good day. She needs to improve off that race but could hit the board at a good price
Race 2
8-7
#8 Whats To Blame: Even money Fav for this conditioned claimer Just ran an excellent low 80 Beyer to break the maiden. very interesting to see Clement go with a bug rider, the class jump is about even and I’m expecting this horse to get claimed today.
#7 Scribe: The only other horse that fits and ran a very nice fig last year here he’s 0-3 in the conditioned claimer ranks but has hit the board in two of those. Also seems to be more of a seconditis horse so a straight exacta here seems to be a strong way to go.
Race 3
4-5-9-2
#4 Vickythebest: second choice on the M/L and might still get a nice price if the fav takes money the way she has the last two times out. This daughter by Carpe Diem holds the best last-out Beyer and just missed winning under new top connections If she stays above 5-2/3-1 then she can definitely be bet on the win end. She could also be close to a slow pace and a nice angle to remember is up close to the pace 2 3/4 lengths and dropping in class is always a nice angle.
#5 Bossy Snow Pea: Trainer Larry Rivelli wins at a 15% clip with invaders at Gulfstream Park and while yes that number is lower then his normal win rate it shows he can win with invaders and you also don’t need lower stats for higher odd horses. this Filly had a rough go of it last time out in Chicago but seems to be the only one who might want the lead-in here and with a clean break could go wire to wire at 15-1
#9 Tough N Buff: Love the jockey upgrade here and the latest work but will need to come from off the pace not really Saez’s favorite way to ride a horse. Along with the rider switch, we have a class drop always nice to see some positive trainer intent. Navarro hasn’t gotten off to the best start but all of his wins have come going shorter so far at the meet this one is my choice to clunk up underneath.
#2 Milkah: I am against this 9-5 M/L favorite for a couple of reasons the first reason she has lost the last two races already as the fav at under even money. Another is declining Beyer figs along with drops in class and last but not least with a new trainer taking the blinkers off she ran fast numbers albeit on turf so I will be taking a hard pass here.
Race 4
6-2-10
Race 5
8-4-10-7
#8 Hartling: Not going to single to start off the P6 there is one thing I don’t like when it comes to young horses and that is breaks in the workouts and this one has a month-long break and that isn’t something you usually don’t see in two-year-olds. Now for the positives dropping from MSW company and showed speed two back which I’m sure Saez will try and get this one out and rolling quickly maybe try and bottom out this field although there will be more speed in this MC affair then R3. She also holds 2 Beyer speed figure races over the Beyer Par which is very good.
#4 Awesome Evil: Gets a top rider switch to top jock for the meet so far Jaramillo. Trainer Oscar Gonzalez seems to be more of a grass trainer when we use DRF Formulator with his two-year-olds off this type of layoff he has 6 winners and when we add dirt sprints that fall to 1-17. There was no improvement from first to the second start which can be worrisome. This filly can also show some speed so it’s these two for me to start the P6.
#10 Magnitude Ten: one of my board hitters has never hit the board but is getting blinkers he did nab 3rd at this level last time out but did have a nice pace advantage with some pace signed on for this you might get around the same price but I wouldn’t expect anything better then maybe improving to second in case one of the top two burns each other out at these low MC events.
Race 6
Race 7
1-4-6-8
#1 Li’l Meatball: Takes a solid jump in class form conditioned 6K claimers to open 6K claimers. the 81 Beyer last time out leads the field by a wide margin and two back his 2019 debut also hits with others in here. He comes off the claim for trainer Gilberto Zerpa. who in the last 5 years is 30% with a positive ROI and he hasn’t missed the board with his last 7 off the claim.
#4 Jacks a Warrior: 2-2 ITM at this class level since the trainer change and he had some good numbers at this level as well earlier in the year. Gets the rider change to Irad Ortiz which even though you take off the leading rider at the meet so far its an upgrade for sure.
Race 8
1-5-9
#1 She Fled The Scene: It’s crazy when every single race on this horses PP’s is within the Beyer Par. 2-1 might be a steal although at 9 starts shes on the wrong side of trying to break her maiden takes another class drop from 35 to 25K. The races 2-3 back make her very dangerous at what could be a decent price. The nice 20% J/T combo adds to the intrigue.
#5 Truly: Been losing against weaker but has two nice races back to back usually you want maidens going down the class ladder not back up but this one also gets Luis Saez to stay. The last race was above the Beyer par so maybe not the craziest jump in class.
Race 9
4-3-1
#4 Hard belle: With the short field I just wanted to go for a horse that had raced at the level and done well and except for the fav who we are avoiding due to the decline in Beyers this one I feel has a good class edge. He will need to improve a bit on the Beyer scale running 77 LTO with the Beyer par being 88.
#3 Kahramani: This is definitely one of my more interesting picks this year. I like the win for 10K LTO. 80 Beyer out of that and was claimed by a good first out after being claimed, trainer. The key for me is the nice work two back tells me this horse might still be in good enough form.
Race 10
4-2-7