Thanks for checking out today’s analysis. Aside from this weekly article I offer daily free full card picks for Gulfstream Park and Belmont Park as well as spot plays from other tracks. Be sure to give me a Twitter follow on @mhjpicks. Saturday’s Gulfstream Park card offers us 12 puzzles to solve. Let’s get some winners!
Race 1
Today’s opener is a 10k maiden claiming race for fillies and mares going 6f on the dirt. #11 Markistan has finished in the money 6 times in 8 races with four second place finishes. She and my second choice have figures much higher than the rest of the group and looks to be a two horse affair. That is, if #5 Cabrina decides to run today. She upset a lot of people last out as the favorite by refusing to run, though from a running line standpoint she has the talent to win. #4 More Diamonds is second off the layoff and set for an improvement and should be involved early.
Selections: 11-5-4
Race 2
The second race is a dirt 5f two year old 50k maiden claiming race. Two year old races like this are always tough because there isn’t much to go off of. A couple of these have a race under their belt and of those I like #3 Casalsa came up short after a game effort last race before which he was fractious. Assuming energy is not wasted in that manner today I think he has a chance to run away. #7 Papa Honor should be a nice price and is worth a shot with some decent breeding. #6 Fire’s Finale is interesting as Spatz does well with first timers (17%) and Vasquez takes this mount over Yates’s horse (for whom he is a regular rider). May be nothing, but certainly worth a look.
Selections: 3-7-6
Race 3
The third race is a 6.25k claimer for three year olds and upward going 6f on the dirt. It’s a nice match up of some seasoned horses who don’t seem to have many starts against each other. #1 Followhisfootsteps will try not to follow anyone and get out on the lead as this is his preferred style. He is taking a slight drop off the win for Barboza which is a 29% move for the barn. He has the speed to wire the field. #7 Starship Apollo gets the outside post and should either sit just behind or try to be the pacesetter. He is a reclaim by Sancal with no wins since that claim and is dropping a couple levels (17%). #6 Northern is second off the layoff and stumbled in his last start and still managed a third place finish. Will have to do some work to stay near the group early but has shown to be capable of winning here (7 wins in 18 starts).
Selections: 1-7-6
Race 4
Today’s fourth race is the first turf race on the card, a 25k claimer for fillies and mares going 5 furlongs. It is not a stellar field with some unknowns, but looking like a two horse race. #8 Smart Set moves to turf in a positive move which is a 14% angle for McGoey. Couple that move with another drop in class and I think she is getting her picture taken today. #2 Kayla’s Tune gets back to the turf and has the best speed on the blades of any runners so far. #4 Runfastbaby has a recent bullet work and could surprise a weak field.
Selections: 8-2-4
Race 5
The closing race of the early pick 5 is a 5k turf sprint for 16k claimers. His best days may behind him, but a recent bullet work off a freshening gives me hope for one more in the tank from #2 Gran Malbec. He has 7 wins in 15 starts at the distance and December was in the money in every start at the trip. Dibona is nearly 20% with horses off the layoff. #4 Sturgeon is dropping way down in class off the claim for Dobles (16% off the claim). The class relief should help with a big improvement. #5 Black Jet is off the layoff for Baxter (24%) and loves this trip with 31 races of his 35 career being 5f turf sprints.
Selections: 2-4-5
Race 6
The sixth race is a dirt 6f maiden 16k claiming race for fillies and mares. It is a weak field and I had a tough time settling on this race which is pretty evenly matched. #6 Maries Melody looks to have done her best running on the dirt and at 6f and moves back to that trip here for Minguet who is 19% route to sprint. #8 Matraca is dropping into the claiming ranks and switching to dirt. This horse didn’t have a shot last out, especially after a bad start. Looking for an improvement here today for Gutierrez who is 20% turf to dirt. #4 Trinni Sunshine comes off a bullet work after a second place finish and will benefit from a likely quick pace set up.
Race 7
The Rainbow 6 starts off with the first route race of the day, a 1 1/16m 30k claimer turf race for fillies and mares. Race looks like a lot of cheap speed will go early and we will end up with a chalky outcome. #4 Augusta Moon was a failed favorite last out after going four wide and not having enough to run late. Vasquez should be able to keep this one just off of all the speed waiting for the collapse. #7 Team Win figures to benefit from a quick projected pace as well. He does have decent comparable speed and Pletcher is 20% second off the layoff. #1 Sensible Myth seemed to enjoy the stretch out on turf last race by showing some closing speed.
Selections: 4-7-1
Race 8
16k claimers going 5f on the turf will kick off the late pick 5 in what could be another short priced group on the board. #2 Earth has been the victim of some bad trips in 2020, with no finishes in the money. He is getting a nice jockey upgrade, which along with his speed could just be the right combination. #9 R Boy Bode is a nice consistent runner for Baxter who gets a weight advantage here with talented apprentice Trejos. He has a recent win at this level and trip. #3 Dark Ages is off a win just a week ago on a race taken off the turf. He can run on the lead or off, which gives Zayas a nice hand to work with.
Selections: 2-9-3
Race 9
The ninth race is a 25k AOC for three year olds going six furlongs on the dirt. #4 Combination moves up, which makes sense having six of his last seven and three in a row in convincing fashion. There is no reason he can’t extend the streak today other than having to endure a jockey switch to Camacho and a barn switch to Maker, the latter being a positive move. #3 Life in Shambles is off a win as well. This nine year old still has gas in the tank and will be trying a late run on the top choice. #1 Who’s Out is back to the races after the quarantine from Navarro’s barn. These horses have actually been running well so this one merits consideration.
Selections: 4-3-1
Race 10
Race 10 is the first of three routes to end the day, a one mile 12.5k claiming race set for the turf. #11 Lillie’s Heat is off an extended layoff for owner/trainer Rodriguez who is currently 20% on the meet. She will go for the lead and hope to hold on, and could get the lone speed set up. Trejos has shown ability with early speed horses and should be a nice price. #3 Noble Intentions comes in as a beaten favorite off of a wide trip. Today she should have better inside trip and have a major impact in the race. #2 Afficionado really did not like the slop and a return to turf will be welcome but will likely be a short price because of back class in France.
Selections: 11-3-2
Race 11
The eleventh is the Added Elegance stakes, a 1 mile dirt race for three year old and upward fillies and mares. #4 Letruska has great front end speed and should get a jump on the competition. She comes into this race off of a solid workout and the break since April gave her time to recharge the speed. #1 Nonna Madeline has had a similar layoff, which is a good angle for Pletcher (are there any bad ones?). This horse has some back class and she has beaten some good horses, but also ran second to my top choice in her last race. #2 Bella Ciao has the best late speed and is one to watch as the top flight might do a number on each other.
Selections: 4-1-2
Race 12
Today’s finale is a wide open 16k maiden claiming turf race set for a mile on the turf. #10 I’m Down (hopefully not what you will be saying regarding your gambling dollars at the end of today) is set to improve after hitting the gate and running decently. It is hard to ignore that this one sold for 325k and is being put up for 16k here as a major red flag, however whatever was seen to warrant such a purchase price could be enough here today. #2 Budget Buster follows the thematic names here in the finale as my second choice. Fittingly this gelded son of Paynter has finished second in half of his 10 starts. Figures are solid compared to the group and is a logical play. #11 Estilo Peligroso comes in from Tampa after failing to win there but running well. He will need to work a trip coming from off the place in a crowded field, but has some talent.
Selections: 10-2-11