Gulfstream Park – January 04, 2020
Gulfstream Park Daily Gallop Selections: 15/47 (32%, $3.29 ROI)
*Does not include off the turf races where turf selections were made
Twitter: @bmata85
Best Bet: Race 2 – 4 Nuestra Union (7/2 ML)
Race 1 – 3YO MCL $50k – Turf – 1 M
Selections: 10-5-8
The first Saturday card of the new year kicks off with an interesting group of turf maiden claimers coming from a variety of circuits. The field is led by a duo of Mike Maker runners. Of the two, I prefer 5 Blanket of Roses who is taking a significant class drop from much tougher maiden special weight fields. This is a move the Maker barn excels at; winning at a 27% clip with a $3.56 ROI, including a solid 8 for 30 at Gulfstream Park. While Maker’s other entrant, 3 Budget Buster can certainly win, I’m somewhat against him at a short price– he’s had his chances at the level and the field has more interesting runners at better prices. I’ve ultimately landed on one of those prices at my top pick. At first glance, 10 Montana Man doesn’t look good enough, but his races all have major excuses. Given the pedigree, turf is his likely preferred surface, excusing his three dirt starts. The lone turf start came against a solid maiden special weight field at Saratoga that included Breeders Cup placed Chimney Rock. Furthermore, the pedigree on both sides indicates he should appreciate the stretch out to a mile, rather than the 5 ½ F at the Spa. The rest of the pedigree is filled with turf as he’s a half to three turf winners and the dam was a four time turf winner including a stakes win. While 8 Plan of Attack hasn’t done much running in either start, he was running against significantly tougher horses in New York at the maiden special weight level. Even with the tough competition, he was short prices in both starts (4/1 & 5/1). While not a strong move for Jerkens, 1 for 8 (11%), it’s a small sample size.
Race 2 – 4+ MCL $32k – Dirt – 6 F
Selections: 4-5-1
Four of the six entrants in the second look to be evenly matched, all having positive angles / reasons to play. I’ve landed on 4 Nuestra Union as my top selection of the bunch. Her last race is one to draw a line through as she was going long against maiden special weight company in the slop. Her race two back is worth a watch as it’s much better than the 4th place finish indicates. She chased the pace four-wide at one point dueling with three other horses to her inside. From there she continued to fight on throughout the stretch while the other three speed horses finished in the rear of the field. She figures to get a perfect pressing/stalking trip behind the early front runners. While it’s a bit concerning that 5 Take Charge Again has finished 4th in five career starts, her last two efforts are difficult to knock. Two back, off the layoff, she dueled on the lead setting solid fractions and was run down late by a foe who rated off the pace. Last out she again attended the pace and was caught late. She’ll have to deal with 3 Luxe Diamond on the front end but she’s certainly capable of wiring the field. 1 Time to Two Step is logical given that she should have at least a moderate pace in front of her. However, her last race is a bit concerning as she had solid fractions to close into but could only manage a distant 3rd place finish. I’ll mention 3 Luxe Diamond as the other logical contender. While she’s dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claimers, those were only state bred MSW races, a less of a class drop. Given the presence of 5 Take Charge Again, it may be tough for her to wire the field 1st off the layoff.
Race 3 – 4+ ALW $51k – N1x – Turf – 5 F
Selections: 5-4-1
I’m ultimately against the two runners exiting the December 4th edition of this race– both 6 Seven Gems & 7 Sturgeon put in poor efforts that day. They each had favorable trips but never seriously threatened the eventual winner. Some of the newcomers to the level provide much more intrigue. 5 Intimidation returns for the dangerous Jason Servis barn who has borderline-absurd numbers off 4-8 month layoffs in turf sprints — 11 for 24 (46%, 83% ITM, $5.15 ROI). His only start on turf was a solid one, looking green but still making up ground in a race that was dominated on the front end. Additionally, it’s always a good sign when a turf horse can win on dirt. Given Servis’ numbers and that this is only his 3rd career start, he should certainly move up off the break. Linda Rice sends out a rare Gulfstream entrant as she’s only 2 for 20 in the last 5 years at GP. 4 Hurricane Hill has run well in every in five career starts, hitting the board in each start. However, he’s unproven at 5 F and will need to close from significantly off the pace, not necessarily the recipe for success on the Gulfstream turf course at 5 furlongs. 1 Dizzy Sight goes out for the cold George Arnold barn who is 0 for 8 to start the meet and is a pedestrian 11% with the dirt to turf move. However, in a field without much turf form, this runner does have some turf pedigree to support the surface switch. Progeny of Twirling Candy win at a 16% clip in their turf starts, a high number relative to other sires. While the dam never raced on turf, she’s a half to five turf winners, including multiple stakes winners.
Race 4 – 3YO MCL $32k – Dirt – 6 F
Selections: 5-6-8
The 4th race is led by a pair of first time starters in a field that does not feature much dirt form. Todd Pletcher trainee 5 Above Par earns the nod as the morning line favorite. Pletcher is a robust 24%, $2.06 ROI with dirt first time starters at the maiden claiming level, including going 7 for 19 (37%, $2.45 ROI) at Gulfstream Park. Furthermore, 5 sibs have won on dirt and while the dam had more success on turf, she managed to go 1 for 4 on dirt. While the works are non-descript, it shouldn’t take much to beat this weak field. While 6 I’m Prayingforthat didn’t do much running in her turf debut, the pedigree suggests that she may ultimately prefer the dirt. Abreu has solid numbers making his move, 6 for 31 (19%, $2.86) with maiden claimers going turf to dirt. Alexis Delgado sends out promising first time starter 8 Strong Performance who picks up Irad and has some okay works on the tab. Delgado is a solid 4 for 11 (36%, 9 ITM, $3.29 ROI) with dirt first time starters at the maiden claiming level. Progeny of Wicked Strong win at a decent 23% clip first time out & four sibs have won on dirt.
Race 5 – 3YO ST ALW $36k – Turf – 1 M
Selections: 4-3-8-1
I unfortunately don’t have any creative opinions in the 5th– the four shortest prices on the morning line look to have a strong hold on this race. Of those, I’ve landed on 4 Blazing Desire first off the claim for Mike Maker who is 17% with a $1.75 ROI first off the claim on turf. While he was the 3/2 favorite in his maiden breaking win, he did so in commanding fashion, attending a fast pace and winner rather easily. 3 Monforte comes off the layoff & first off the claim for trainer Ruben Gracida who has average numbers in both situations — 3 for 26 (12%, $0.93) first off the claim on turf & 2 for 13 (15%, $1.04) off 60 to 120 day layoffs on turf. When last seen he impressively wired a field that is comparable to today’s. If he’s fit off the break, he has the potential to wire the field as there isn’t much other pace. 8 Vintage Kitten and 1 Verdict Is In exit the same race and both had similar trips attempting to close into a slow pace chasing a 2-5 winner. Of the two, I slightly prefer 8 Vintage Kitten but it’s only a slight lean as they have very similar PPs.
Race 6 – 3YO Limehouse Stakes $75k – Dirt – 6 F
Selections: 1-6-2
The first of five stakes on the card features a group of six newly turned three year olds who are led by morning line favorites 1 Shivaree and 6 Zaino Boyz. Both exit similar 2 year old listed stakes victories, where they each won with front running trips. Of the two, I prefer 1 Shivaree who exit’s the stronger of the two races and won in a more impressive fashion. He dueled on the lead with today’s rival 3 Ricki Ticki Taffi and easily put that rival away. After that duel, he dueled with the 6/5 favorite and looked beat only to re-rally and nip the favorite at the wire. All that points to an improving horse with big ability and determination to match. 6 Zaino Boyz was an upset winner of the Inaugural Stakes at Tampa Bay. While that race was out of line with previous races, big improvement of late season two year olds is not unexpected. A repeat of that race makes him a big player in this spot. 2 Peruvian Boy is an interesting price ot note. His best race came at 6 ½ F over the summer in the Saratoga Special running an okay 4th to some of the better two year olds in the country. His last two races have not been good but he should get some pace to run into and might appreciate the cut back to 6 furlongs.
Race 7 – 3YO G3 Kitten’s Joy $100k – Turf – 7 ½ F
Selections: 9-2-4
The only graded stakes action on the card features an evenly matched group of runners, as evident by seven of the eight runners being listed between 3-1 and 8-1 on the morning line. I’ve settled on one of the two Todd Pletcher’s entrants, 9 Summer to Remember, as my top selection. While only making his 3rd career start and coming off a maiden victory as the 2-5 favorite, this son of Summer Front should possess solid upside. He enters today’s race 2nd off the layoff and put in two solid works, including a bullet on December 31st. Both career starts were solid, including an okay 2nd to graded stakes winner Decorated Invader. Furthermore, Pletcher is a solid 19% with a $1.41 ROI with maiden breaking runners going straight to stakes level turf races (listed & graded stakes). 2 Irish Mias is the deserving morning-line favorite based on his solid 2nd place finish in the Pulpit Stakes at Gulfstream. However, he had ideal conditions to close into and I’m not sure he’ll get the same race flow in this spot. He’s improved in every start for trainer Graham Motion so wouldn’t be surprised to see him take another in this spot. Mike Maker’s 4 Bless the Kitten put in an impressive visual effort at Churchill, making a considerable middle move and making the first move on the turn entering the stretch. From there, he managed to hold off a long-shot who had a much more favorable trip. Maker is only 3 for 21 (14%, $1.45 ROI) going maiden to stakes on turf.
Race 8 – 3YO Glitter Woman Stakes $75k – Dirt – 6 ½ F
Selections: 6-8-2
There is a strong possibility that the Glitter Woman Stakes has a repeat exacta from the House Party Stakes held a few weeks ago. Morning line favorites 6 Spanish Point and 8 Sound Machine look to have a strong hold on the field if they run back to their effort in that stakes. 6 Spanish Point continued to show an ability to rate just behind the pace setters and make a strong stretch run. Breaking from the outside, he should receive the perfect pressing/stalking trip. While 8 Sound Machine did come from farther back in the House Party Stakes, he never seriously threaten 6 Spanish Point and without a change in pace dynamics or riding tactics, I’m not sure how she turns the tables. The one possible up-setter is the 2nd Abreu entrant and new face, 2 Lady Anna. She was extremely professional in debut, sitting behind solid fractions and showing a nice closing kick. If the pace does heat up on the front, she could come with one run. Abreu is solid placing his maiden winners, going 4 for 10 with a $2.01 ROI on dirt with maiden breakers.
Race 9 – 3YO Ginger Brew Stakes $100k – Turf – 7 ½ F
Selections: 3-12-4-6
There is no doubt the Ginger Brew Stakes is led by Breeders Cup runner and morning line favorite 4 Abscond. Any analysis of this race must focus on the abundance of early pace signed signed on. While 4 Abscond has been on the lead or near the lead in each career start, she’ll have to deal with others. 1 Cheermeister is 2 for 2 in her career, both times wiring the field by setting fast fractions. Given this one drew the one hole, it’s very likely she’ll find herself on the lead heading into the first turn. 9 Hear My Prayer also features prominently into the pace as she stretches out from a pair of 5 furlong wins and Paco is named aboard. While I certainly respect 4 Abscond’s chances, I think given the likely short price & other speed she’ll have to deal with, there are other more enticing prices. I’ve landed on a pair of maiden breakers as my top selections. Both 3 Moral Reasoning and 12 She’s My Type (FR) will need to improve off maiden victories, but both do go out for top flight connections capable of winning in this type of spot. 3 Moral Reasoning’s form brightens up when you consider the only horse she has lost to in two career starts was Alms, who came back to win multiple graded stakes. She received pace to run into last out but looked impressive in victory. Obviously it never hurts to back the Chad Brown barn, especially with a non-favorite. 12 She’s My Type (FR) was extremely professional in debut, rating off the pace and closing with a solid kick. The 2nd place finisher came back to win a maiden special weight at Gulfstream, further validating the victory. Clement has excellent numbers in taking maiden breakers directly to stakes on the turf — 25% with a $2.30 ROI.
Race 10 – 3YO Mucho Macho Man Stakes $100k – Dirt – 1 M
Selections: 1-2-4
The Mucho Macho Man Stakes features a competitive bunch of three year olds led by the return of morning line favorite 2 Chance It. 2 Chance It has looked impressive in each start, hitting the exacta in each of his five career starts. Impressively, he’s been able to win at a variety of distances including as short as 5 ½ F and most recently at a 1 1/16 M. While I have no major knocks, given the amount of pace signed on, I’ve landed on 1 South Bend as my top selection. This colt had an impressive start to his career, going three for three by breaking his maiden on debut, breaking his N1x allowance condition in one attempt and moving right to stakes company. There is no doubt his Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes was a disappointing effort as he went off as the 2nd choice and finished a non-threatening 6th. He did race much closer to the pace that day and I’m hoping a return to his off the pace style will reserve form. As previously mentioned, there is plenty of pace signed on for him to close into. I have no major knocks on the 3rd selection, 4 As Seen on TV. Similarly to 2 Chance It, he’s run well in every start, failing to miss the exacta in three career starts. He’ll likely be involved in the projected fast early pace but could ultimately prove to be the speed of speed.
Race 11 – 4+ AOC $52k – N2x/$62.5k – Turf – 1 M
Selections: 2-4-11