Gulfstream Park – January 11, 2020
Twitter: @bmata85
Gulfstream Park Daily Gallop Selections: 17/58 (29.3%, $2.85)
*Does not include off the turf races where turf selections were made
Best Bet: Race 2 – 3 Perfect Revenge (6-1 ML) & Race 10 – 9 Exulting (6-1 ML)
(2: 0-1-0, $0.00)
Race 1 – 3YO MSW $50k – Dirt – 6 F
Selections: 9-7-3
The card kicks off with a field of maidens chalk full of expensive purchases for high-profile connections. Even with the plethora of high-profile connections, I’m looking elsewhere. Trainer Juan Carlos Avila sends out first time starter 9 Tio Wil. Avila is only 1 for 8 (13%, 50% ITM, $5.17 ROI) with dirt first time starters but that winner came at 19/1, with three other runners finishing in the money in the money, including a 38/1 shot finishing 2nd. The pedigree is solid as Bayern is a solid win early sire, hitting at a robust 32% with first time starters and the dam was a stakes winner on dirt. Furthermore, he’s put in back to back bullet works over the Gulfstream surface. 7 Mr. Philly Dilly is one of the two entrants with racing experience. He put in a solid effort in debut, racing near the pace and holding on for a decent 2nd in a race that came back fast from a speed figure perspective. While that race came at the maiden claiming level, it’s already proven to be a decent race as the winner came back to win an allowance (albeit with a lower speed figure) and the 4th place finisher came back to win. On the concerning side, Perkins is 2 for 27 (7%, $0.37) with dirt second time starters trying either the maiden special weight or maiden claiming level. Pletcher is obviously always dangerous with first time starters, especially at Gulfstream (hitting at 28% with dirt first time starters at Gulfstream). While I’ll acknowledge 3 Silver Ratio, it’s more from a trainer perspective than a pedigree one. On that front, Liam’s Map is only winning with 13% of his first time starters & the dam pedigree suggests that this one might ultimately end up on the turf.
Race 2 – 3YO ST ALW $38k – Dirt – 1 M
Selections: 3-7-1
The 2nd features an extremely competitive group of Starter Allowance three year olds, evident by six of the seven entrants being listed between 2-1 and 6-1 on the morning line. I’ve ultimately landed on 3 Perfect Revenge first off the claim for the hot Saffie Joseph barn. Joseph has excellent numbers first off the claim, hitting at an incredible 38% with a positive $2.06 ROI on dirt. Outside of the excellent claiming numbers, his effort last out looks even better than the running line indicates. His first start on dirt, he took back behind a slow pace and still managed to make up considerable ground on the leaders entering the stretch. As he did enter the stretch, he looked to be making a move inside of horses but never really had room, bumping with horses & being shut off — with a cleaner, outside flowing trip, it’s possible he could be coming off a victory instead of a 5th place finish. 7 Neverstopdreaming is a logical player off his debut win where he sat right off the pace setter and made a strong move for the lead. The fig came back strong & fits well at the level. Given the outside draw, Saez should be able to evaluate the early pace and sit a similar trip. On the concerning side, Delgado is 0 for 8 with next out maiden winners. While it’s a small sample size, it’s worth nothing on a short price horse. 1 Beyond Gone gets significant class relief from facing tougher N1x allowance company in Kentucky. While his non-effort last out is concerning, it did come over a sloppy race track. His efforts two and three back make him a logical contender and should sit an ideal trip given his tactical speed.
Race 3 – 3YO MSW $50k – Dirt – 1 M
Selections: 2-1-5
The 2nd of four dirt maiden races features one of the most interesting horses on the card. 2 Telephone Talker returns to the dirt after an auspicious move to the turf by Chad Brown. This runner debuted at Keenland on the dirt and was dead on the board (for this barn), only to put in a monster performance, tangling with eventual Kentucky Jockey Club winner Silver Prospector on the front end. Rather than return to dirt, Chad Brown moved him over to the turf for his 2nd start where he was bet down to the odds-on favorite but failed to hit the board. While he is out of a Kitten’s Joy mare & two sibs won on the turf, it is curious why they were so quick to switch surfaces. I tried to look for alternatives to 2 Telephone Talker, but if he can run back to even a portion of that debut he should be extremely tough to beat in this spot. 1 Kingmeister looks to have one of the better chances as he chased a nice Chad Brown horse last out, barely missing. He should be on or near the lead and a repeat of his last performance makes him a player. I do want to highlight 5 Eminent Domain, not necessarily as a candidate to win today, but as one to monitor going forward. The turf may ultimately be the final destination for this $500k son of American Pharaoh as the dam side is filled with turf winners & AP has been stellar with turf starters so far. However, given the purchase price & Mott doesn’t immediately go to the turf, maybe he has some ability on dirt. Mott’s numbers with dirt first time starters at Gulfstream are surprising given his reputation as a trainer who’s starters need a race — 5 for 30 with a $4.00 ROI — and American Pharaoh has been winning with 36% of his first time starters. He may be worth including on deeper tickets as he could be ignored in the wagering based on Mott & the turf pedigree.
Race 4 – 3YO MSW $50k – Dirt – 6 F
Selections: 1-6-4
Given the number of first time starters, I’m not going to dive to deep into Race 4. If you’re playing the early multi-race sequences it’s a day worth buying a clocker report. I ended up selecting the logical million dollar Pletcher trainee, 1 Palm Springs. Pletcher hits at a robust 28% with first time starters on dirt at Gulfstream and Uncle Mo is a decent enough win early sire (22% with first time starters). 6 Touchpoint is the most interesting alternative at the 10-1 morning line price, given that Tapiture is an impressive 42% with first time starters. Navarro, while not as prominent with first time starters, still hits at an 18% clip with dirt first time starters. 4 Epic West is another logical player going out for the same connections as Maximum Security. As always, pay attention to double probables and tote action when constructing wagers.
Race 5 – 3YO CLM $20k – Turf – 1 M
Selections: 5-6-2-8
The confusing early Pick 5 rightly ends with a perplexing group of three year old fillies in for a $20k tag. The race lacks a clear front runner & should feature a moderate early pace, especially pertinent on a Gulfstream turf course that has been very kind to speed. While dangerous to handicap for biases days out, I’m going to lean on horses that will be forwardly placed & regardless of how the turf course is playing, should have a distinct pace advantage. 5 Teacher Drama may not be good enough but put in a credible effort last out at Tampa racing near the pace against slightly tougher allowance company. If aggressively ridden from the gate, he’s certainly fast enough from a speed and pace figure perspective to take them gate to wire. 6 Wicked Solution is the deserving morning line favorite but figures to be over-bet given the Mike Maker / Irad Ortiz combination. Furthermore, her maiden claiming win came with a perfect trip, sitting in the garden spot behind a slow pace and angling out for the victory. I won’t be surprised if she wins, but a worthy bet against at a short price. 2 Midnight Gem comes off a layoff for new trainer Michael De Paulo going from synthetic to turf. While she doesn’t possess an overwhelming amount of turf pedigree, her synthetic efforts would make her a player here. Most importantly, she should be forwardly placed given the stretch out from sprint distances & the presence of the excellent front riding Luis Saez. Based on current form 8 Lady Noguez isn’t good enough, but she does have a considerable amount of dam-side turf pedigree, signaling a possible improvement on the surface switch.
Race 6 – 3YO MSW $50k – Dirt – 1 M
Selections: 2-10-9-5
The sixth goes off as a competitive maiden field for colts going a mile on the dirt & I’m taking a bit of a price. While 2 My First Grammy is far from the most talented horse in the field, evident by his 50 to 1 odds in his first two career starts. However, I have to give this horse a shot after his massive effort last out. He broke well & set the inside pace, dueling with two and three horses at a time. Many of those other speed horses faded significantly while 2 My First Grammy managed to hold on for a very credible third place finish. Given the connections & presence of other bigger barns, I’m hoping to get at least 20-1. After the top pick long shot, I’m using most of the other logical players — both 10 Caracaro & 9 Don Bourbon showed solid speed last out and there are no major knocks on either. In terms of 10 Caracaro, Gustavo Delgado is excellent with second time starters on dirt going 7 for 34 (21%, $2.97). 5 Unrighteous is extremely logical and may take some money for Pletcher considering the impressive work tab. Doesn’t necessarily need to be stated but Pletcher is excellent with first time starters on dirt at Gulfstream — 28%, $1.79 ROI. Furthermore, Violence is an excellent win early sire.
Race 7 – 3YO AOC $51k – N1x/$75k – Dirt – 1 1/16 M
Selections: 4-8-1
Race 8 – G3 Marshuas River Stakes $150k – Turf 1 1/16 M
Selections: 7-4-5-3
The Grade 3 Marshuas River Stakes is led by a pair of NYRA runners who have faced off in back to back New York turf stakes. I have no major knocks against either 5 Andiana Del Sur or 4 Sweet Bye and Bye — both have run well in their last two starts. Of the two, I slightly prefer the 4 Sweet Bye and Bye. While she finished behind 5 Andiana last out, I thought she ran the better race as she had an uncomfortable three wide trip, failing to save ground at any point of the race. While both have big chances, I landed on 7 Munchkin Money as my top selection. Last seen in the My Charmer Stakes, she chased odds-on favorite Mitchell Road in a race that largely held together from a pace perspective — which is also how it projected on paper. 7 Munchkin Money was really the only runner doing any running late, making up ground on the top two finishers. There’s no doubt she’ll need some pace to run into but appears to be in good form based on her last effort. 3 Magic Star is a bit of a conundrum in this spot as she impressively won a maiden special weight at Saratoga and then put in a complete non-effort next out with no clear excuse. Now, off that poor effort, Chad Brown moves her up to graded stakes competition. Obviously anything from this barn is dangerous — will be curious to see the money she takes. For any late multi race play, pay attention in double probables (Pick 5) and tote board action (Pick 4) for a better clue if 3 Magic Star is live.
Race 9 – 4+ AOC $52k – N2x / $62.5k – Dirt – 1 1/16 M
Selections: 2-1-6
The 9th is led by the return of two high-profile 4-year olds, 2 Endorsed and 10 Cutting Humor. While Pletcher is dangerous off layoffs of this nature, especially at Gulfstream (44%, $2.35 off 180-300 at GP), I’ve never been a fan of 10 Cutting Humor. He seemed to always be a tier below the top three year olds, having to take the Sunland Derby route to the Kentucky Derby. Given the connections and his last race was the Derby, he’s likely to be over bet. On the other hand, I’m not trying to beat 2 Endorsed. His three 3-year old races were all credible efforts and more importantly, he should get plenty of pace to close into in this spot. On the other hand, the layoff is a bit of a concern as this is a likely springboard for a stakes spot and Kiaran is a lowly 3 for 20 (15%, $0.74) off 90 to 180 day layoffs. I’ve landed on 1 Fortune Cookie and 6 Yes I See purely from a pace perspective. After 2 Endorsed, I don’t love any of the entrants, but given the aforementioned pace, these two should be running late and have multiple races that fit here.
Race 10 – G3 Tropical Turf Stakes $100k – Turf – 1 M
Selections: 9-1-6-2
The Grade 3 Tropical Turf Stakes came together to form a competitive field of 10 runners led by the morning favorite 8 Thread of Blue. While the connections discussed potentially entering the Pegasus Turf, they landed in this theoretically easier spot. On one hand, they did find an easier field, on the other, it will be very difficult to use his preferred front running style to wire this field. The field is littered with other speed, including the border line run off 4 Gidu. Include such horses as 6 Tusk, 3 Big Agenda & 7 Gemonteer and 8 Thread of Blue figures to have a difficult time making the lead. While he did rate in last year’s G3 Palm Beach, his other four wins all came in gate to wire fashion. At a short price, he’s worth taking a shot against as he won’t be able to run as he prefers. I’m going to try to beat and leave off any multi race tickets as the likely favorite. My top pick is 9 Exulting. Given the abundance of speed signed on, 9 Exulting should have the perfect step as the best off the pace runner. His effort in the Grade 2 Fort Lauderdale was not overly impressive, but came against significantly better horses and he did have a bit of a trip. In general, he’s just been running against better. I’m not sure the 6-1 morning line price will hold given the connections, but with the presence of 8 Thread of Blue, he should avoid favoritism. I’m also going to use Mike Maker’s other runner, 1 Empire of War. In his first start in the Maker barn, he put in a complete non-effort in the Woodchopper Stakes at Fair Grounds but it’s a promising sign that Maker wheels him back in just 14 days. It’s also possible he didn’t take the yielding Fair Grounds turf course and will prefer the firmer Gulfstream course. He’s another runner who should be able to take advantage of the abundance of speed signed on. 6 Tusk is a hard-knocking horse who, while racing against weaker, has been able to find the winner’s circle often. He should get a favorable trip behind the group of speed horses, ultimately making the first run at tiring speed. 2 Maraud comes off the layoff and trainer switch, but Orseno has poor numbers off these types of layoffs — 1 for 28 (4%, $1.10) off 90 to 150 on turf. He does have back form in the Pletcher barn that would make him a player in this spot.
Race 11 – 4+ CLM $16k N3L – Turf – 1 1/16 M
Selections: 8-9-1-10
I’m taking the fairly logical approach in the nightcap, again, relying on a Mike Maker exacta. 8 Iconic goes 2nd off the claim after being washed off in his first turf attempt. While he’s 0/8 lifetime on the turf, those came earlier in his career against significantly tougher maiden special weight and allowance fields. His prior dirt form & improvement while in the Maker barn should make him a player here. 9 Pawnbroker jumps up in class after breaking through the N2L level on his first turf attempt. While he did receive a perfect setup given the fast fractions in front of him, he does have some turf pedigree to support that he could be an okay horse on the turf. 1 Saratoga Colonel took a suspicious class drop when last seen — after winning a NY bred allowance race at 29-1, George Weaver dropped him to the $16k claimer level. He ran well near a slow pace that day, alleviating any concerns of the class drop. 10 Honey Don’t has run well in his last two starts, losing by less than a length in each. However, it’s a bit concerning the number of 2nd and 3rds he’s began to rack up.