Thank you to The Daily Gallop for reaching out and giving me the opportunity to show how bad of a capper that I really am! In the words of the famous Gorgonzola… “FADE ME” today. A huge card of 14 races is on tap and its just as hard in Race 1 as it is in the Fountain of Youth, Race 14.
We have to give a big congratulations to Gulfstream on carding what will be one of the most difficult and deep set of races that you’ll see all year. Turf, dirt, sprint, routing, they have it all and all the races are full. With my analysis, you’ll get 3 selections per race and a BOMB that could blow up the tote at monster odds. You will see a race or two where I’ll use 1 or 2 runners as I believe they are the only win contenders. Lets not wait any longer, here are my selections/thoughts for this wonderful Saturday card at Gulfstream.
Race 1:
#12 Gunslinger 10/1 – Although on paper there looks to be moderate pace in here, Paco has one choice and one choice only with this one and that’s to the front. What I really like about this one is the fact that the best efforts have been wire to wire jobs being parked outside in here, I don’t think theres any way this one isn’t on top as they go into the first turn. Couple things to note… Paco has been aboard 5 starters for Eppler over last 60 days and has 2 winners with ROI of $3.72. Eppler has had 3 winners in 21 starters, all of which have been on grass. I really think there will be a monster effort from this one here. 10/1 is more then fair and I do believe there is a chance he could float from there as well.
#4 Bondurant 6/1 – From ALL pace to, no early foot here with my second choice. The effort off the layoff was eye popping and the numbers back that up. The 89 speed figure off the layoff was the best speed figure since Jan2019 so one would think this one would bounce, right? Well, if there was any question if this horse would be fresh, he drills a 1/2 mile in :48 flat on 2/23. I know its never a positive moving off Ortiz to another jockey but Gaff is more than capable here with a runner that will do all his running late. I don’t think you’ll see 6/1 on this one… more like 3/1. Be careful if he drops lower then that.
#3 The Queens Jules 12/1 – This runner comes out of the same race that our 2nd choice did and we mentioned that the race was strong. Perhaps the most impressive part for the run by this one is the fact that he chased a :23.1/:47.1 splits and continued to run on, finishing just 3/4 of a length back of the winner. The final time of 1:34 flat towers over this entire field (rest are sub 1:35’s) and if there is any chance of a repeat performance by this one, today, SEE YA, hes gone. I do like the fact that the style of this one is to chase. Knowing the 12 has to send, Olsson should be able to break clean, be on top a couple strides out, let Paco clear, get to 12’s outside flank and get first crack at him as they turn for home. Again, a repeat effort from LTO makes this one TOUGH in here.
Who can blow up the board? Lets take a shot with #9 Mister Maestro 30/1. Again, another runner coming out of the common race where they went 1:34 flat for a mile. This one was ridden by the Japanese rider and found all sorts of trouble in the middle of the race where he went from 3 lengths off to 10+… LATE in the race this horse made up nearly 3 1/2 lengths on the field while running the last 1/4m in :23.11. If Landeros can find a better trip, this one should improve going long for only the 2nd time in 18 months.
** Notice I didn’t use the Navarro runner who is 3/1 on the ML (#10 Tipsy Kitten). The biggest issue I have is the fact that I believe this one is on the wrong surface. He’s 3-1-0-1 on a fast dirt track, 2-1-0-1 on an off dirt track. Out of Kitten’s Joy (El Prado), you know grass is where he should be but the efforts on dirt just TOWER over efforts on grass. No thanks. **
Race 2:
#3 Centastic 6/1 – The OTHER Pletcher runner here. This one out of Goldencents (Into Mischief) brought 150k at the Fasig Tipton sale last May. Horse is out of a dam that has brought 6 winners to the track, which includes a stakes winner as well. Steady works from this one on the tab and interesting that TAP lures in Prat to ride. One of the concerns has to be that this one isn’t quick in the AM whatsoever and breeding would say that longer will prolly be better. After watching a couple of works, I’m interested to see if hes really as big as what he looks like in his works. Looks very polished for a 3yo FTS. Interested to see how this one performs in start number one.
#1 I’ll Fight Dempsey 7/2 – The lower of the two ML for Todd Pletcher is where we go for our second choice. Out of Into Mischief (Harlan’s Holiday) brought 300k in 2018 and its taken this one a while to finally get on the track. The works that I have been able to find and watch have been the most impressive of the bunch of runners in here. This colt has the ability and breeding to be a special horse. Note that Pletcher puts JohnnyV in the irons which typically means this is the better of the two. Drawing the rail is a concern but should have enough tactical speed to be in a good spot early.
Who can blow up the board? Directly to the outside of the rail is #2 Expensive Style 15/1. A runner who is shipping in from Tampa for John Arriagada has improved with each and every start. 75,82,82,83 are the speed figures from start 1 to start 4. Now takes a hike in class, competition significantly better but 2nd off the layoff, has tactical speed and trainer was smart to put a bug on to get the big weight break in here. Perhaps that’ll be enough to get the job done being 5 lbs lighter.
** I have a load of questions for Chad Brown and his runner, #5 Candy Machine. Why is this horse debuting on dirt? Why is this horse not debuting 2 turns at GP (very common race)? What took so long to get to the track? Can he win? No doubt. Will I take 8/5, which will likely be the odds? No way. Big fade for me. **** #10 Ashiham for Kiaran McLaughlin has breeding FOR DAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! So why aren’t we using? Easy answer, Kiaran McLaughlin. Kiaran isn’t good with FTS and I’m not exactly sure why Shadwell sent this colt to him. Perhaps they know this one needs to be developed slowly and as a 4yo could be a big time horse. Either way, not for me, not today.
Race 3:
#3 Scarto 3/1 – Horse has improved with each and every start and has become a much more mature horse on the track. I love the ability of being on the lead, sitting right off the leader with this one. Horse took a MAJOR move forward (from 78 speed figure to 98) last time out in a non graded stakes event over this track. Horse is still working lights out after running huge in that spot so it gives me no worry that he’s not ready to fire a 98 right back again today. If perhaps he does, he will win this event. No question about it. NOTE: I love when lower level jockeys keep the opportunities on big time mounts. Sanchez keeps Berrios aboard today, 3rd off the layoff… there is more then just a little to like here!
** I will single this horse on all my tickets (Pick5 and Pick4’s). If I decided to use other runners, the only other one I would use would be the #6 Ournationonparade 4/1. The layoff is the biggest hiccup for me. Showed a lot of guts coming from off the pace to score a maiden victory in a non graded stakes race at Laurel. Working well and fast at GP and Ritvo does lure Paco…
Race 4:
#8 Life On Top 12/1 – I putting a big * by this one as my top choice. I do believe that this one has a lot of talent, which was on display LTO trying the green for the first time of career. The reason for the * is because I don’t want to take this horse if he’s under 10/1. I think the ML is correct and if we get that tomorrow, I think a nice wager is in store for me. Off the layoff, this one broke fine and sat off a quick pace and mowed them down the lane under the guidance of Rajiv Maragh. Maragh gets the nod again today and once again, should get another reasonable pace to run at. Typically this is a spot that I would fade, knowing the likeliness of a bounce off such a huge run BUT… if you actually watch the race, I think this one was wide throughout, had some traffic trouble around the turn, had to swing wide and came flying later then I believe Rajiv intended. A cleaner trip, another time over the lawn and improve 2nd off the layoff and perhaps we have our first mega boom of the day at a nice number here.
#7 South Bend 4/1 – Although this colt has only been on the lawn one time in 6 career starts, that effort was quite remarkable that day. He finished 3rd, beaten just a neck and really had no excuses. Some people will watch that race back and say “Lep couldn’t get him there”, “Lep should’ve done _____”… at the end of the day, I just think the horse just straight up hung. All three of them were running at top speed and the horse just couldn’t pass. That’s why I like the fact that Hough is adding blinks for the first time on this one. Some people would think hes grasping for straws or something, trying to make excuses for why his horse lost when many think it was Leps fault, in reality the horse needs these. I believe a horse that is working well off that big effort, should improve this time around. With the addition of blinkers, this one will be forwardly placed and although this race does have some pace, he is classy enough and good enough to get first crack at them and never look back. Although first 5 races were on the conventional dirt, the steady speed figures just goes to show you the talent of this horse. The 90 in debut on the grass is low from what his top end ability is, an improve and he will be ultra tough.
#10 Famished 10/1 – There were a lot of bad trips coming out of the Dania Beach race but perhaps the worst of them all is right here with Famished. Horse seemed to be in a good spot, middle of the pack early but got squeezed, had to rally, move outside and then swing even WIDER for the drive to the wire and flat out, hung. That’s it. Another trainer, this time Kimmel, adding blinks to his runner. I’m not exactly sure if that is ideal ALTHOUGH, the way he has been working since that race, perhaps Kimmel is going with a new tactic… perhaps to the front they go? Either way, as I said, a bad trip, lots of excuses and didn’t miss by much even so and I think you have a horse who is a big time contender in here at a nice number. NOTE the 5/8 drill on 2/15 :59 and change… flat moving. That’s why it makes me wonder if Kimmel is gonna try something new with this one here. Should be live.
** Obviously only gave three selections but you need more than that if playing Pick5’s and Pick4’s. I do believe that most tickets will click ALL here unless they have a really strong opinion, which means I’d like to sneak away with only using half the field or less. If I were to add two more runners, they would be #9 Turn of Events who ran 3rd to our top choice in a MSW and was near that fast pace and continued to run on… perhaps betting looking on video then my top choice. Will also add in #11 Fenwick Station who hasn’t done anything wrong in 3 career starts. I don’t love the layoff but has a slew of works on the tab, one of which was eye popping (2/14 :47.4 for a half mile). I trust Kenneally off these layoffs but this is a tough spot.
Race 5:
#2 Atomic Blonde 9/2 – This ML is wishful thinking. I don’t see any way possible where we will see 9/2 on this runner today. There is no question that this is the best runner in the field and has to be pegged “the one to beat”. Although this runner for Pletcher has just 5 starts, she has shown ability being on the lead, right on flank of leader and LTO, from well off the pace. This kind of talent is rare and with a race that lacks a lot of front end speed, I would imagine this one following the rail runner towards the front and take a shot at her around the turn. 2nd off the layoff, working well, gets JJ back in the irons for the 2nd straight time… this one will be very tough.
#1 Silver Kitten 10/1 – This is one of these situations where we will find out just how good this runner REALLY is. In her last 2 races shes dazzled on the front end. There lacks TRUE SPEED in here (although form looks like there is a lot of tactical speed) and I think Prat will have 1 idea… go to the front and see how far she can go. She beat a solid MSW field at AQU and then came back at GP to best a really nice ALW field. You can tell by speed figures that this horse is getting better with each and every start. The 1:34 and change for a mile LTO was a really nice time for that day (slow). Prat is a top tier rider and world class on the turf. I believe this is a great move by Gargan to snatch Prat for this mount. Nothing crazy in prep for this event, when speaking of works, but the fact that Gargan gets two half mile drills in, is promising. The times are not surprising… Gargan runners don’t go super fast in the AM typically.
#8 Miss Munnings 8/1 – Horse for course and distance here. 10-3-4-2 at GP, 10-3-3-2 at this 1m distance. If not for those reasons alone, perhaps this one is the most consistent runner of the bunch. She’s run out of the money only twice lifetime. The one thing we’ve failed to mention though is the fact that this one is taking a big hike in class as well. She’s used to the AOC’s and ALW’s… this field assembled of Graded stakes runners will be a completely different test. I do like her running style where she wont be far back against this group. Manny must settle her down early, get her in a good spot and make one run at them. If she runs to her top, shes going to be tough in here. There isn’t a horse in here that loves GP and this distance more then her. She’s live.
Who can blow up the board? #9 Sister Hanan hasn’t done anything wrong in three starts on the grass and will get the addition of Lasix today. This is another runner that’s taking the hike to stakes company from ALW but her upticks in speed figures stick out like a sore thumb… 77 -> 81 -> 88 ….. to perhaps 97-98 today? That puts her not just right there, but hitting the wire in the 1st spot.
Race 6: Goofy race here… I don’t like spending a lot of time on races as I’ll tend to overthink and make a lot of mistakes. I took a good 35-45 minutes on this race because I can hardly separate them. Luckily this isn’t in the middle of Pick4’s and Pick5’s.
#7 McErin 9/2 – As I said, this is a tough race to decipher and I’m just gonna take a stand with this one who was coming out of dead sprints to route for the first time LTO and faded badly after running about a half mile. What we have to note though is the 92 speed figure even after fading badly to finish 3rd by more than 9 lengths. I think 2nd off the layoff, 2nd time routing, NO SPEED signed on in this race, we could walk the dog out here with this one. 9/2 is fair but I actually believe we could float from this number. I like the 2 works between starts and when you look at it, we’ve drawn a pretty weak field here. Big chance.
#8 Plus Que Parfait 3/1 – To be honest, this horse could be a slam dunk, easy winner if fresh off the shelf. Coming off the shelf is the biggest question here. We haven’t seen this one since Aug and the works at Pmm have been impressive but the questions remain whether this one can actually find the wire first. Walsh does well off these layoff lengths, puts Gaff up, has the back class and efforts that would destroy this field. Horse just has to show up.
Race 7: Perhaps the toughest race of the entire card
#5 Cap de Creus 8/1 – Prat/Pletcher team up again here with another live runner. One of the few runners that’s not coming off a layoff, is in great form, just hasn’t hit the wire first in a while. I like all of her runs at GP, three 2nd’s in 4 starts, with a 92 top speed figure two races back. A big hike from ALW fields to a G3 but what the pace scenario is looking like, combined with the fact that this is a horse that’s raced recently with success, over track, over distance, I think there is a lot to like here at a reasonable number. NOTE: The last couple times this one has had a race, the work prior was a half mile drill and was sub :48… guess what happened on 2/22? 4f :48.4. Ready to roll.
#2 Touriga 8/1 – In what will be an interesting race dynamic, I believe I found the runner who will be leading the second pack behind what should be a quick pace for a race of this length. This is another runner who isn’t coming off a layoff and is in good form. Had all sorts of trouble LTO in the G3 but the race prior to that she scored in a non graded stakes race going this distance, over this track. That day she received a 101 speed figure for her win and a repeat of that performance puts this one right, squarely in the mix.
#9 Elizabeth Way 20/1 – This will be your “blow up the board” horse for this race but will also be my third choice. I know I’m stretching here but I’m willing to take a shot because I believe this race is wide open. Attfield was able to get this horse to respond positively in US debut after coming over from Ireland. The 80 speed figure is a big concern. That number just doesn’t fit here. That number would have to grow by 10-15 points to be competitive for the win slot. A 10-15 uptick in speed figures seems like a lot but the day she raced was a very slow day in times, but hers was more then reasonable. She won pretty easily in Paco’s hands as they hit the wire so I know she has more in her. Paco gets the nod again today which is a big positive and man has he been GREAT on the lawn this meet. Again, the step up in class, first time against winners and G3 runners at that, is a lot, but I do believe this filly has a lot of talent for Attfield and could run huge today.
Race 8:
#9 Peddlers Pride 10/1 – Gorgonzola called me out a couple weeks ago for liking a horse that looked almost IDENTICAL to my top choice here. I am a big fan of horses that have a lot of new things going on. Adding blinks, taking off blinks, adding Lasix, switching surfaces, sprinting to routing and vice versa. Here we have a runner who ran a wonderful 3rd in debut considering he missed the break, took a weird step three strides out of the gate while going just 5.5f. Today, Mott adds Lasix for the first time, puts the blinks on to try and get more speed and focus from him and has a couple really nice, fast works on the tab including a 3/8 drill :35.2. This one has a lot of good going for him and would be a single for me if were in a Pick4/Pick5 sequence.
#6 Mister Candy Ride 7/2 – This is the obvious horse to beat in here. Just missed in debut, running an 88 speed figure while running on the track and distance of race today. Has been on the track twice since debut, both 5/8ths works and both were very solid (nothing out of the ordinary). Switches over to Lanerie as Ortiz is in Saudi… I don’t know how I feel about that but this horse should be plenty good enough and show more early foot then debut.
Race 9: What a way to start off the Jackpot Pick6. If you plan on playing a ticket into this pool, this is one helluva race to get it started. Wide open, a lot of speed, outside runners look live but at this distance, outside posts are dead. This is def a separation leg for all the jackpot players.
#3 Declarationwarrior 12/1 – Another route race where there is considerable speed signed on. I landed on this runner who I think has tactical speed and can get herself in the race early. She’s facing winners for the first time but the improvement from start 1 to start 2, then combine that with having the right racing style, I think we could see a monster and top effort from this filly. Casse is another trainer where his horses continue to improve as they get older. This seems like a classic spot where Casse shows up with a monster… perhaps here she is, at a BIG BIG number!
#8 Stunning Sky 10/1 – Taking a helluva class hike here but the constant improvement between starts is undeniable. Topping out at 88, LTO, this one has taken a considerable jump forward since joining the barn of Maker. I like how he chose to put Paco up today whos won 43% of Maker horses over the last 60 days. Has the right running style, being off the pace and does have a win at the track and distance. I love the steady works including one half mile, :47.3. Maker has been pretty impressive off these types of layoffs as well. There is a lot of like here and the numbers say that although in cheaper races, this horse fits at this level.
#7 Abscond 3/1 – This is the most consistent runner of the bunch. She is the only runner in here with three races with speed figures of 85+. Although only one of those efforts was in a win, that was the Grade 1 Natalama. Horse does like being at or on the front end. If Gaff isn’t careful, he will have a lot of company early. I do believe, if given the right ride, there is no question that this runner will be there as they cross the wire. Horse has incredible pedigree, should relish the little bit of extra ground she’ll get today and is the best horse in the race. NOTE: In two previous races when off similar layoffs, this horse has run speed figures of 89 and 88 respectfully. NOW, with that being said, the 89 was a 7th by 4 1/2 lengths, 88 was a 3rd by 3/4 of a length.
Race 10:
#9 Tonalist’s Shape 7/2 – This filly is the only runner to have a win in a stakes race. She is also 3 for 3 at GP, 1 for 1 at the distance and this is all despite regressing majorly LTO where off the layoff, she wasn’t her best but still won by 3 3/4 pulling away late. There is a lot of early foot in this and she will want to come from right off of it. Parked outside is a huge benefit as well as she wont have to deal with anybody and have free ground to run on the entire way. Working well, Saffie seems excited about her in interviews… should be ready for another big one, back to that 90+ speed figure today.
#6 Spice Is Nice 7/5 – I think 7/5 is a little ambitious with the amount of talent in this field and having only seen debut BUT… the debut was unbelievable, she looks to be the real deal and as she goes longer, she will only get better. I would normally be a little concerned with this layoff but she did run her nuts off in debut so maybe the little bit of extra time will help her run that figure back today. The 97 speed figure is astounding and another run back to that number will make this a 2 horse race, IF and ONLY IF we get the best from the 9. Both look to be the best in here.
Race 11: Here is where I’ll take a stand in the Late Pick5. Single time!!!!
#2 Caribou Club 6/1 – I’m not sure there is really an explanation for what happened last time out off the layoff. Perhaps he was a little closer then he’d like to be, maybe the just wanted settled at Tampa, perhaps it was the fact that Proctor switched to Ortiz instead of having Lynch jump on who had ridden this gelding to a first, first and second in 3 runs. Either way, I’m just completely tossing that effort as if it never happened. Now, 2nd off the layoff, working well at Tampa, gets Lynch back in the irons today and we get PLENTY of pace to run at. I believe that will be the key. Lynch will be able to take this one well back and make one big swooping run. I also like how Lynch is aggressive so if the rail opens, he’ll take that as well. If you look through some of the horses that this one has faced prior, you’ll see Stormy Liberal, Blue Point, amongst others. Horse has class and tons of ability against this group. Single time at a nice number!
Race 12:
#9 Mr Freeze 7/2 – Its hard for me to determine whether 7/2 is legitimate or if that’s a little on the light side but either way, I do like Mr Freeze in here quite a bit. He has speed, both front end and tactical, he’s spotted in the 9 hole, so its outside and shouldn’t have any issues getting to the point he needs to be and I believe the effort last time out off the layoff was as impressive of a second place finish as you’ll ever see. He only lost to Mucho Gusto who is perhaps one of the best, if not the top older horse in the game right now. I question the mile but if you look back, the success he had at a mile, like the AckAck at CD, you see him come from slightly off the pace and I think that’s what we will see here today. Romans has been quite hush hush about this one, besides the last 40 hours or so, which makes me believe he’ll be the goods today. I really enjoy Dale’s training style… he knew his horse ran huge LTO so he eases him back with a work on 2/8 5f 1:04, no sweat. Comes back a week later, 2/15 4f :50 flat, no big deal. Now Dale is like, ok big boy, game time… 5f 1:00.1…. now we go.
#2 Haikal 10/1 – I believe this could be the worst ML of the entire card, right here. 10/1 on Haikal will be more like 7/2 when they go into the gate today. In a race that features a lot of speed, this is by far the best closer of the bunch. He’s come from WAY out of it and he’s come as close as nose while only being off the pace by 1 1/4 early. Horse is working well, runs well when fresh, McLaughlin is a solid 29% this year off 45-60 day layoffs with a + ROI. Horse has back class facing horses like Tacitus, is a previous G3 winner and gets Rajiv back in the irons today. Horse has been working extremely sound over at PMM and looks to be in the best shape he’s ever been in. I expect a big one here, ESPECIALLY with the pace scenario he will get.
#3 Phat Man 4/1 – Everybody loves a ‘Phat Man’, am I right? Again, another closer here who will be near the very back as they go into the first turn. What I really like more then anything is the consistency of this one. Always shows up, always runs his game and gives it all he has. He hasn’t run a race and received a speed figure less than 90 since April of last year. With all this being said, there are two downsides to this runner that halts me just a bit… 1, I’m not sure I understand why Sweezey is shipping this one back and forth from Tampa back to GP then back to Tampa after race. Seems small but the amount of wear and tear on travel (not far btw) on the horse just doesn’t seem to make sense. 2, I don’t like how I believe he’s capped at 99. By 99, I mean speed figure. He’s yet to ever run a 100+, that will have to change today if he has a shot at winning, in what should be a very quick race. Perhaps this one is just a straight unders play BUT, if nobody else shows up, he’ll be there.
Race 13:
#7 Admission Office 15/1 – This is where I get myself into trouble sometimes. I’m gonna go back to the same well that I did on Pegasus World Cup Day. I bet this one at 22/1 thinking he was sitting on a monster. Had some trouble early, got caught wide and much closer then he ever should’ve been and thus, a disgusting 8th. I believe now, after cracking the 100+ speed figure barrier, we could see another improve off that effort. The move over to Franco is puzzling. You could’ve called Bravo, whos ridden him before, but either way, Manny will have to get this one settled in early (deeper in the field) and let him do his running when he wants to do his running. This horse lost to Instilled Regard by 1/2 length, lost to MrMisunderstood by 1/2 length. Horse has talent, theres no question. I know Lynch was excited for this one during PWC but it didn’t pan out. I have no reason to think that he’s not excited for his opportunity today. Again, just like the PWCT, he’ll get the exact pace to run at. No excuses for this one today. Big effort in store.
#6 Zulu Alpha 2/1 – We are playing with fire here. This could really be a sure lock single during the later sequences if you buy into the 3 for 4 at GP and bein the true horse for course. What I do like about Zulu’s running style is the fact that he’ll be sitting right in behind the leaders. and will get first crack at them. He should have a whole lot of traffic trouble as this one has some tactical speed and is spotted outside of the two horses that should go to the front. Horse has been working great, now 2nd off the layoff, I don’t know if this one could actually improve off the 111 in the PWCT but a repeat of that performance and I don’t think anybody really has much of a chance in here. This is the horse you have to beat.
#8 Spooky Channel 20/1 – This is the one that can “blow up the board” at a major number here. Since leaving Turf Paradise, he had a troubled trip in the Arlington Handicap, then followed that up with a squeezed start, rushed and still ran halfway decent in the Ft Lauderdale but LTO, he broke the 100+ speed figure barrier while going 1 1/2m. I think minus the fact that he had troubled trips 2 and 3 back, this horse just needs longer then those races. With this being 1 3/8, I think this fits right into the hands of this one. Will be sitting off the pace, which as we stated, is the most important key of this race and the improving speed figures gives me hope that this one has one more improve to put us over the top at a monster number!!!!!
Race 14:
#6 As Seen On TV 9/2 – This wont be a common horse on top for many but I didn’t know what else to do with this field for the Fountain of Youth. I like how from start 1 to start 4 this one has improved speed figures in each and every start. This one has gone from an 86 debut all the way to a 105 LTO in the Mucho Macho Man, at GP. Breeding says that the extra ground shouldn’t be an issue whatsoever and the fact that this one comes from just off the pace, is SUPER IMPORTANT. Chance It is the hype horse in here and this one just missed by a head and Chance It had it any way he wanted. I do think we can flip the script on that horse, as long as Saffie doesn’t scratch him, and the prices of the two wont even be comparable.
#5 Dennis’ Moment 2/1 – I still believe this horse is a freak but the BCJ gives you a bit of a pause. That stumble hasn’t happened before and the way the horse just laid down was something else. Doesn’t hurt when Ortiz is also tugging at the horse knowing he has nothing. Efforts like the Iroquois, against this group will get the job done. He came from off the pace that day and really won pretty easy, although the running lines say he only won by 1 3/4 lengths. Here is to hoping that Dennis’ Moment comes back in a huge way and shows everybody why he is a top3 contender for this years KY Derby.
For third its a tie. I think both #7 Country Grammer and #8 Gear Jockey can run huge at MONSTER numbers, today. Everybody thinks Country Grammer freaked LTO at AQU in a MSW but I think that was a very classy horse, doing something extremely classy against a good field. He’s a horse that doesn’t like the lead, he enjoys taunting while sitting right off and pouncing as they turn for home. 12/1 is fair, 5/1 is a joke, 20/1 would be an even bigger joke!!!! For Gear Jockey, its about figuring it out on the track. What kind of horse do they want him to be and have him grow as that type of runner. When they figure that out and he can dazzle, like he does (although still a maiden) in previous starts, look out. His best efforts, 89 and 88 are not far off some of the best speed figures in this race. He has been very highly talked about has hes been UNBELIEVABLE in the AM in prep for this start. Perhaps this is the day he breaks his maiden, and it would be at a BOMBISH type number!!!
I hope you appreciated the write up. I really enjoy doing these and I look forward to the next one in the future. Below are some suggested, cheap Pick5 wagers for Races 1-5 and 10-14.
Early Pick5:
3,4,9,12 / 1,2,3 / 3 / 7,8,9,10 / 1,2,8,9$96
Late Pick5:
6,9 / 2 / 2,3,9 / 2,3,6,7,8 / 5,6,7,8,9$75
Good lucky to everybody!!! Hope everybody cashes tickets!!