Gulfstream’s annual Claiming Crown card features an excellent series of races with full, competitive fields that provide plenty of betting opportunities. The first race kicks off at 11:50 am, while Race 2 (12:18 pm) goes off as the first Stakes in the series.
Gulfstream Park Daily Gallop Selection Tally: 3/10 (30%)
Late Pick 5 Ticket: 3 / 1,4,7 / 1,2,7,8,9 / 2,5,9 / 2,3,4,5,7,8 = $135 ticket
Budget Pick 4 Ticket: 1,4,7 / 1,8,9 / 5 / 4,5,7,8 = $18 ticket
Race 1 – 2YO MSW $50k – Turf – 1 M
Selections: 4-5-3-11
The card kicks off with a full field of 2 year-old fillies going a mile on the turf. Two Kentucky-based fillies, Ian Wilkes’ 4 Mo Clare’s and Blair Walsh’s 5 Hurricane Breeze lead the way of those with experience. Of those two, I prefer 4 Mo Claire who did little running in her first start attempting to close into a slow pace at 5 ½ F. Now at a mile, this daughter of Uncle Mo should relish the extra distance. Wilkes is an average, but profitable, 7 for 69 (10%, $2.69 ROI) with horses making their second start on the turf returning to the MSW level. 5 Hurricane Breeze improved significantly on the stretch out, using her sprint speed to nearly wire the field, making her a logical contender to do the same here. While it’s always tough to judge the intent, Gafflione does hop aboard the Clement FTS rather than sticking with 5 Hurricane Breeze. Clement’s firster, 3 She’s My Type (FR), backs a solid turf pedigree– out a dam who won twice on the turf in seven starts and a half to three turf winners in France. Clement is a respectable 12% ($1.73) with 2 year-old first time starters. 11 Tomorra goes out for Rodolphe Brissett and is a half to two graded-stakes winners, including 2015 BC Juv Fillies Turf winner Catch a Glimpse. While this filly has plenty of turf pedigree, Brissett is a dismal 1 for 28 (4%) with first time starters on the turf in MSW events. The only winner came from a short-priced winner at Belterra Park. While she might not be good enough, 8 Spartanka gets a massive upgrade on the trainer change to Mike Maker. Worth an include on deeper horizontal tickets if the price is right.
Race 2 – 3+ ST STK $110k – Dirt – 6F
Conditions: Three year olds and upward which have started for a claiming price of $8k or less lifetime
Selections: 5-4-9-10
The first of the Claiming Crown races features an interesting pace dynamic that presents itself throughout the card– nearly the entirety of the field prefers to race on or near the lead, creating a favorable situation for the few horses who prefer to come from off the pace. The race figures to setup similarly to last year’s edition where 5 Brother’s Club was able to close from over 8 lengths off into moderately fast fractions for a solid 2nd. While some of the front runners have run faster figs, he figures to get a similar setup to last year’s rendition. His return race at Laurel was a solid, grinding type victory and figures to improve 2nd off the extended break. Last seen running against Breeder’s Cup placed Blue Chipper in Korea, 4 Fast Pass returns off the short break looking to avenge last year’s 3rd place finish behind 5 Brother’s Club. Similarly to 5 Brother’s Club, his speed figs are not as fast as the top in here but as one of the few confirmed closers in the race he should receive the setup to fire his best effort. While 9 Whyruawesome will have to deal with the potential blistering pace, he may be the ‘speed of the speed’ and out run some off the lesser speed horses. Furthermore, he’s shown an ability to rate and sit behind the pace setters, an ability that may help in this situation given the number of horses likely to vie for the lead. 10 Bordini looks a little slow and cheap based on recent races but fits the aforementioned pace setup.
Race 3 – 2YO MSW $50k – Turf – 1 M
Selections: 7-1-11-12
The male counterpart for Race 1 finds another full field of 2YO maidens going a mile on the turf. While the general lean in these types of fields should be towards those with experience, this field features a group of experienced runners with limited upside & conversely, a group of intriguing first time starters. Of those with experience, 7 Bee Catcher looks the most enticing– he exits an okay maiden race at Keenland where he chased a loose on the lead winner, going 5-6 wide closing into a slow pace. While he never seriously threaten the leader, he was gaining ground late, beating the rest of the field by over 4 lengths. With any type of pace in front of him here he should have a much better trip. 1 Make a Stand goes out for Todd Pletcher who has started out with a bang in Florida, winning with 4 of his first 5 starters at Gulfstream. He’s also an excellent 7 for 34 (21%, 50% ITM, $2.19) with 2YO, first time starters on turf at Gulfstream Park. While Union Rags is a sub-par turf sire (5% turf winners), he’s a half to a 2-time winner on the turf. The dam was also a decent 6: 1-1-1 and 1 for 3 in England on the turf. Mike Maker sends out a Ramsey homebred, number 11 Maverick Kitten. While this one is full of turf pedigree — Kitten’s Joy 14% turf winners, 13% first time turf & a dam that was 1 for 5 on turf — Maker is a pedestrian 3 for 24 (13%, $1.20) with MSW turf first time starters at GP. At 20/1 on the morning line, Mark Casse sends out the Gary Barber homebred 12 Trapped Inside who is also features a quality turf pedigree. Trappe Shot wins with 11% of turf starters & the dam was 2 for 3 on the turf.
Race 4 – 3+ ST STK $110k – Dirt – 1M
Conditions: Fillies and Mares, Three and Up, which have started for a claiming price of $12,500 or less lifetime
Selections: 6-5-10-7
The 4th goes off as the 2nd Claiming Crown race, intended for Fillies and Mares who we’re in for a tag of $12,500 or less at one point in their lifetime. This race presents itself as a confusing puzzle– the 5/2 morning favorite 2 Liza Star doesn’t make my top four selections — and the remainder of the field is not separated by much. Ultimately 6 Kodiak Katie earns the tentative honor of top selection. She’s a little slow on paper but should have the benefit of a fast pace in front of her to close into. Additionally, she took a nice step forward for Kelly Breen first off the claim and has a right to take another. Breen is 24%, $1.84 second off the claim on dirt. She never really had a chance last out chasing a loose horse and that field does stacks up favorably against this group. While 5 Cuddle Kitten should be involved in a contested pace early, her last 4 races since the trainer switch to Navarro are too good to ignore. She may just end up being the speed of the speed. 10 All Good Times looks to have taken a nice step forward in her last three starts. While those have come against weaker competition at Delaware, she might get the right setup here to hit the board at a big price. 7 Porta Liza’s recent races have been subpar for her standards but she has plenty of races that fit here and is a logical contender as the 2nd Navarro.
Race 5 – 3+ ST STK $110k – Turf – 5 F
Conditions: Fillies and Mares, Three and Up, which have started for a claiming price of $25k or less since January 1, 2018
Selections: 3-4-1-9
2nd off the claim for Georgina Baxter, 3 Thinkin Cowtown put in a credible effort last out, closing into a slow pace and was the only horse in the field making up any type of ground. Baxter doesn’t claim many horses (7 over the last 5 years) so one would think there was some intent with this one. With some improvement off the claim she fits well here, especially with the expected fast pace. 4 Band of Angels looks extremely logical for Jorge Navarro, winning 11 of 21 starts, including 9 for 14 at 5 F. Given her running style and career record (21: 11-0-3), she’ll likely wire the field as the speed of the speed or finish off the board. As the morning line favorite, a bold stand would be to exclude her from any trifecta plays. 1 Unaquoi ran a massive 2nd at 80/1 in last year’s edition and has seen a fair amount of success at 5 F (7 for 19 lifetime). While only her third start against older, 9 Dance Til Dawn has excelled at the 5F distance– she needs to take a step forward, but it’s certainly possible for a 3YO at this time of year.
Race 6 – 3+ ST STK $110k – Dirt – 7F
Conditions: Three and Up, which have started for a claiming price of $16k or less since January 1, 2018
Selections: 9-8-10-4
Jorge Navarro has an extremely strong hold on Race 6 sending out 3 of the 4 shortest prices on the morning line. 9 Benefactor looks to be a commanding favorite– his last two races tower off over the field and even a slight regression will make him very tough in here. He will be forwardly placed in a race with a good amount of pace but he’s shown an ability to at least sit off pace setters. Similarly, 8 First Deal has shown an ability to rate and should receive an ideal setup, completely the Navarro exacta. As a 3YO, he has the right to take a step forward off the small break. 10 D T Goodie ships in from Parx off three consecutive solid efforts that would make him a player in this spot. While he’s shown an ability to race on the lead, given the amount of speed signed on here, Nik Juarez should choose to more of an off the pace style that he’s also had success with.
Race 7 – 3+ ST STK $110k – Turf – 5 F
Conditions: Three and Up, which have started for a claiming price of $25k or less since January 1, 2018
Selections: 3-9
While he’ll be an overwhelming favorite I’m not trying to beat 3 Shekky Shebaz. He’s clearly the classiest and fastest horse in the race, running against the best sprinters in the country in last month’s Breeder’s Cup. 9 Rocket Heat looks like the clear cut second horse and opens the possibility for a cold exacta.
Race 8 – 3+ ST STK $110k – Dirt – 1 1/16 M
Conditions: Three and Up, which have started for a claiming price of $8k or less lifetime
Selections: 1-7-4-9
1 Bobby G ships in on short rest from Laurel after closing into a slow pace against open stakes competition. As long as the short rest does not have an affect, he should receive a big pace setup to come flying late. The defending champion from last year’s edition returns as the morning line favorite. 7 Sala’s Return looks logical given his ability to sit off the pace and close into fast fractions– a situation he should see today. Additionally, he’s a solid 5 for 16 at the distance, with 6 other ITM finishes. 4 Ruler of the Nile stretches out for Michael Lauer after running well in Kentucky at sprint distances. His only effort at today’s distance came over the GP dirt and was a decent 2nd place finish.
Race 9 – 3+ ST STK $125k – Turf – 1 1/16 M
Conditions: Fillies and Mares, Three and Up, which have started for a claiming price of $25k or less since January 1, 2018.
Selections: 1-9-7-8
The 9th is one of the more perplexing races on the card as 9 Una Luna goes off as the lukewarm 4-1 morning line favorite. While she’s run well in nearly start of her career she does have a bit of second-itis lately, finishing 2nd in four consecutive starts. She certainly needs to be featured on any vertical or horizontal tickets as she seems to always fire and fits well with this large field. 1 Arabella Bella earns my selection– she’s just been running against tougher fields in Kentucky and New York. While she didn’t run well last out, she does have efforts that fit very well here. Maker has had a nice start to his meet with 2 wins and a second with 4 starters. 8 Bienville Street has plenty of races that fit here and should get the ideal pace scenario with some speed signed on. 7 VIP Nation has run well since switching to the Bruce Levine barn. She’ll have to deal with 1 Arabella Bella, who is the more classy of the fillies, but she’s been able to hold for at least a piece in recent starts. 8 Bienville Street
Race 10 – 3+ ST STK $200k – Dirt – 1 ⅛ M
Conditions: Three and Up, which have started for a claiming price of $35,000 since January 1, 2018
Selections: 9-5-2-7
The feature of the Claiming Crown card features a trio of runners from three different Servis family members, Jason sends out morning line favorite 5 Leitone (CHI), John sends out 3 Forest Fire and Tyler sends out 8 Degrom. While all three look competitive and have a case for the top selection, I ultimately landed on 9 Noble Thought for the Mike Maker barn. He comes off a solid 1 ⅛ M victory at Churchill and has plenty of dirt races that fit. He should sit an ideal trip behind the projected speed and make one closing run. Undoubtedly 5 Leitone is the hose to beat, he’s proven at the distance and has run the best races of any contenders. To his disadvantage, he will have to deal with some cheap on the front end from 4 Create Again & 6 Aequor, potentially setting it up for some off the pace runners. 2 Third Day has some decent Graded Stakes effort that would put him in contention here, his G3 Ben Ali Stakes effort at today’s distance would make him in a contender in this spot. 7 Ektibaar is an interesting claim off the Navarro barn– his work tab is very strong and he’s had some time to improve this runner. Navarro is 29%, $1.71 first off the claim on dirt. Furthermore, he’s even better giving runners time since the claim — 42%, 75% ITM, $2.28 first off the claim on dirt off a 60 to 120 day layoff. Look for a big improvement from this runner at what could be a square price.
Race 11 – 3+ ST STK $125k – Turf – 1 1/16 M
Conditions: Three and Up, which have started for a claiming price of $25,000 since January 1, 2018
Selections: 4-8-7-5
The nightcap features yet another full field of competitive evenly matched runners. There are a number of directions to go here and I give the slight lean to 4 Apreciado for Mike Maker. She’s a bit of a price in the race (8/1 ML), but if you toss the Kentucky Downs race three back his form brightens up even more. He has a versatile running style that Gaffalione should be able to adapt to any pace scenario. 8 Patriot Drive does rely on a pace setup, but he may get it in this spot complete the Mike Maker exacta. 7 Dontblamerocket has run extremely well since being claimed by Norm Casse — winning at Saratoga and the quirky Kentucky Downs. He looks to be working consistently since returning to the work tab. While 5 Muggsamatic needs to improve to win here, it’s impossible to ignore anything the Servis barn claims (29%, $1.76 first off the claim in turf routes).