Gulfstream Park Daily Gallop Selections: 13/38 (35%, $3.09 ROI)
*Does not include off the turf races where turf selections were made
Twitter: @bmata85
Best Bet: Race 7 Devant (FR) 8-1 ML
Race 1 – 2YO MCL $12 – Dirt – 6 ½ F
Selections: 8-2-12
The card kicks off with a group of two year old maiden claimers going six and a half furlongs on the dirt. The field is devoid of much form and is mostly littered with horses who have done little running in their young careers. Unfortunately I’m leaning on the favorite 8 King of the Cats as my top selection. He showed some ability first off the claim for trainer Bobby Dibona and is capable of taking another step forward. He showed some decent early speed before fading on a day that was not overly friendly to speed. The winner of the race came back to win a N2L $35k and the 2nd place finisher matched his speed figure finishing 2nd at the MCL level. While 2 Mountain Tree received some early pace to close into last out, he at least showed with the right setup that he does have ability, something that can not necessarily be said for the remainder of the field. His two best figures have come sprinting and there should be enough pace to keep the race honest. Given the aforementioned lack of form, 12 Flash Pass posses a threat as the only first time starter in the field. Armando De La Cerda is 19%, 50% ITM, $1.55 with dirt first time starters at the MCL level. While the gap in works from August to November is concerning, he at least put in a bullet (out of 23) way back in June. It doesn’t hurt to see the red hot Luis Saez jump aboard. If the winner does not come from the top three, I think any of the remaining nine are liable to take an unpredictable trip to the winners circle.
Race 2 – 3+ ST ALW $23k – Dirt – 1 M
Conditions: For Three Year Olds and Upward Which Have Started For A Claiming Price of $8k Or Less Or Claiming Price $12.5k
Selections: 7-5-3
While 5 Sala’s Return significantly outran 7 Dizzy Gillespie in their claiming crown match up, 7 Dizzy Gillespie appears to have a significant pace advantage in today’s rematch. His claiming crown effort can be seen as a throw out as he raced mid-pack while all of his 11 career wins have come while racing within one length of the lead. If he breaks well he should be able to clear the field from his outside post. 5 Salsa Return ‘s last effort came at a time when the Navarro barn was extremely chilly, starting the meet only 4 for 40, a near 20% drop from his normal win percentage. However, as of Friday, he’s 3 for 9 with two other in the money finishes, much closer to his normal percentages (33%, 56%). Outside of the top two, the rest of the field is largely uninspiring. 3 Charlie the Greek has tactical speed that should put him in the mix early which could be advantageous given the projected lack of pace, but his best races are just not fast enough to compete for more than a minor placing. 4 Quenane has plenty of races that fit here but looks to be pace compromised with his late running style. 2 Lapochka switches from turf and synthetic and has back dirt races that fit here but those were years ago. Furthermore Tharrenos is a pedestrian 6 for 43 (14%, $1.34) first off the claim.
Race 3 – 2YO CLM $16k – Dirt – 6 ½ F
Selections: 1-7-8
1 Delta Hutch has lost her last two races by a combined 58 lengths, but that has come against much tougher 2 year old stakes company. Now she returns to the appropriate level and a repeat of her maiden breaking score would make her a player at a very enticing 20-1 morning line price. Breaking from the one post and possessing early speed, she should find herself on the lead if jockey Gaddiel Martinez places her appropriately. Given the lack of speed, she could find herself on a comfortable lead, taking them gate to wire. As mentioned in the Race 2 write-up, the Navarro barn is returning to form after a slow start to the Gulfstream meet. This makes 7 Izzy Money hard to ignore first off the claim. Navarro is an impressive 31%, $1.74 with runners first off the claim in dirt sprints. Even without the trainer upgrade, 7 Izzy Money’s prior form makes her a player in this spot. 8 Afrolina gets a considerable trainer upgrade but will have to improve on her best races to compete here. She has enough speed to attend the early pace, putting her in favorable position given the projected pace dynamics.
Race 4 – Janus Stakes $100k – Turf – 5 F
Selections: 2-9-7
The Janus kicks off the stakes action on the card, the first of six listed turf stakes on the day. I’m not trying to beat the expected favorite, 2 Extravagant Kid. The runner-up in last year’s edition, he’s put in an extremely successful 2019 campaign, finishing in the exacta in 6 of 7 starts on 3 different surfaces. He’s just been running against significantly better horses, the likes of Candian Horse of the Year Pink Lloyd and Breeders Cup entrants Stubbins and Leinstar. While likely not at the level of 2 Extravagant Kid, both Georgina Baxter runners pose big threats in this spot. 9 Faction Cat ran excellent in his first start in the Baxter barn, finishing only a little over a length behind Breeders Cup placed Shekky Shebaz in The Canterbury Claiming Crown race. He should be able to work out a similar pressing/stalking trip behind the plethora of speed horses. 7 Pay Any Price comes off the extended break where Baxter has mixed numbers off 180 day plus layoffs. — 0 for 6 but 4 ITM. He should be the speed of speeds which should never be discounted in these 5 furlong dashes. It’s worth mentioning 4 Vision Perfect, the winner of last year’s edition. While the Servis barn is always dangerous, his form looks to have dissipated.
Race 5 – 2YO MSW $50k – Dirt – 1 M
Selections: 3-1-5
I’m ultimately against 9 New Day Dawning in this field of competitive maidens going a mile on dirt. Brisset switches surfaces again for this filly after a failed turf experiment. He’s a dismal 2 for 14 (14%, $0.94) with maiden special weight runners going turf to dirt. 3 Touch of Nirvana earns the top selections for the hot Ralph Nicks barn. She should find herself on or near the lead stretching out from sprint distances, a move that is solid for Nicks — 32%, $2.30 going sprint to route with maiden special weight company on the dirt. The dam won going a mile so any distance concerns should be limited. Similarly, 1 Fancified should also appreciate the stretch out for Ken McPeek who is 22% with a $2.92 ROI stretching maiden special weight company out from a sprint to route. Her last race was interesting as she showed some early speed before falling back and then re-rallying for a decent 3rd place finish. Given the stretch out, she should find herself in an advantageous early position. Of the first time starters, 5 Giradi looks to be the most interesting. John Servis is a robust 16%, $2.23 with 2 year old dirt first time starters and sends out this $190k daughter of Tiznow with an impressive work tab. She’s a half to the 2019 Triple Bend Stakes winner Air Strike and the dam herself was 2 for 3 routing on dirt. Furthermore, the dam is a half to three other stakes winners on dirt.
Race 6 – Abundanita Stakes $100k – Turf – 5 F
Selections: 7-4-1
7 Eyeinthesky returns off the layoff after showing promise earlier in her 3 year old season at Saratoga. Trainer Mark Casse took a shot stretching this filly out to the mile in the Pebble Stakes but ultimately she seems best sprinting. She’ll need to take a step forward off the layoff, something she is certainly capable as a late season 3 year old returning to her ideal distance. Morning line favorite 4 Girls Know Best looks extremely logical after two solid efforts against graded stakes company. While neither of those ended with a victory, both were efforts that would be very tough to beat in this spot. She should find herself on the lead, always dangerous in 5 F turf sprints. 1 Travieza looks a little slow on paper but can not be discounted on the trainer switch to Jason Servis. Servis is a ridiculous 33%, 78% ITM, $4.11 ROI off trainer switches in turf sprints. Given her early speed & post position draw, she should be forwardly placed either on or near the early pace.
Race 7 – 3YO Tropical Park Oaks $75k – Turf – 1 1/16 M
Selections: 5-11-7
The Tropical Park Oaks features a full field of three year olds that are difficult to separate. Ultimately, 5 Devant (FR) earns my top selection at a square 8-1 ML price. In her first start in the US for trainer Graham Motion she took money (3-1) against a competitive allowance field at Keenland. While her 3rd place finish looks non-descript on paper, she did a commendable job closing given the lack of early pace in that race. Given the plethora of early speed here, she figures to get a more honest setup. Furthermore, one can assume she takes a step forward 2nd off the layoff with this likely being the target for Motion from the get-go. Her four turf works since the last race should indicate she’s fully ‘cranked’ for today’s spot. Former Graham Motion trainee, 11 La Feve (FR) switches to the Saffie Joseph barn who is only 11% off turf trainer switches, but this French-bred filly has shown an ability to compete in these spots. The $1.6 million purchase of 7 Balon Rose has ultimately been a disappointment for OXO Equine and trainer Chad Brown. While the filly was hyped from the beginning, she ultimately took much longer than anticipated to reach the races and when she did, she managed to lose as the ⅕ favorite. Maybe she’s finally turned a corner but I ultimately want to try to beat in the exacta at will likely beat a short price. As always, Chad is extremely dangerous in this spot and should be tossed with caution.
Race 8 – 2YO MSW $50k – Dirt – 1 M
Selections: 5-10-3
The male counterpart to Race 5 also finds a competitive group of maidens going a mile on the dirt. I’m ultimately against the morning line favorite 11 Gear Jockey. He’s likely to take money his impressive 3rd place finish in the Breeders Cup Turf Juvenile. That race came on turf and his only start on dirt, albeit his debut, was not good. While the pedigree suggests he should be able to run on dirt, I’ll try to beat at the projected short price. At a much bigger price, I’ve landed on 5 Mayberry Deputy, making his 3rd career start for Ken McPeek. He put in a decent effort last out racing near the lead in a 6 F sprint, ultimately losing to Gold Street who came back to win the Sugar Bowl Stakes at Fairgrounds last weekend. If he can handle the one turn mile, he could take them gate to wire. The $400k purchase, 10 Gimme Some Mo makes his debut was Pletcher who has won with 3 of his 7 first time starters so far at the Gulfstream meet. Uncle Mo is a solid win early sire, winning with a robust 35% of 2 year olds and 22% of first time statrers. The works are nondescript but this one should have talent given the pedigree. 3 Elusive Rider looks to improve in his 2nd career start for Ian Wilkes, who is an average 11%, $1.68 with second time starters at the MSW level. This colt was way off the pace in his debut but looked to be figuring things out, making up substantial ground in the late stages of that race.
Race 9 – 3YO Tropical Park Derby $75k – Turf – 1 1/16 M
Selections: 7-2-14-13
The Tropical Park Derby features an extremely competitive group of three year olds, which became even more competitive when the two morning line favorites drew the 13 and 14 posts. Horses drawn from the 8 post or further out at 1 1/16 M on the turf are 1 for 33 at the meet so far. There’s no argument that 14 A Thread of Blue and 13 Halladay are the horses to beat, but given the post draw, I’m looking for some alternatives. 7 Scraps has the look of an improving horse, with five consecutive races with speed figure improvement. Some might overlook his last effort, coming out of a short field of Starter Allowance horses, but that field featured some quality older horses and 7 Scraps was able to sit behind a slow pace and over take those runners. If the pace develops, he could be running late at what should be a square price. The form of 2 Kadar brightens up quickly if you consider that he may not want to go further than today’s 1 1/16 M. If you only consider her two 1 1/16 M races in the US, she has run extremely well against fields that compare to the quality of today’s group. Similarly to 7 Scraps, he’ll need adequate pace to close in to, but given the number of forwardly placed horses, the race should be run in an honest fashion.
Race 10 – Via Borghese Stakes $75k – Turf – 1 3/16 M
Selections: 7-2-3
Race 11 – H Allen Jerkens $100k – Turf – 2 M
Selections: 2-7-6
The nightcap on the card goes off as the rarely seen 2 mile turf marathon. It’s an interesting race to handicap as there isn’t much turf marathon form to base any opinions off of. I’m ultimately against the second choice on the morning line 3 American Tattoo. While there is some turf pedigree and he’s proven himself to some degree going longer on dirt, he figures to take too much money given the combination of Pletcher and Jose Ortiz. I’ve landed on a horse that could ultimately be north of 50-1 when they break the gate. I have to bet 2 Smell of Roses off his maiden breaking score. While it’s never advisable to bet on maiden claimers making the jump to stakes competition, it’s worth watching the maiden breaking score of this colt. Sent off at 40-1, he set fast fractions on the lead and bolted both turns, going 4,5 and even 6 wide at times. He was still able to take the field gate to wire. If Rajiv Marah can somehow control this horse he could pull a major upset. Outside of this impossible long shot, I don’t have much analysis. Mike Maker excels at claiming horses and stretching them out to this elongate turf routes, which makes 7 Carom a player. He towered off the field in his last race and makes sense here. 6 Salute the Colonel is another logical choice at what will be a short price.