Gulfstream Park Daily Gallop Selections: 13/32 (41%, $3.68 ROI)
Race 1 – 2YO MCL $25k – Turf – 1 M
Selections: 7-4-5
The Saturday Gulfstream card kicks off with 2 year old maidens going a mile on turf. The field is led by morning line favorites 3 Factorino and 2 Now Is and while both are logical players in this spot, there are a number of runners who offer more upside. 3 Factorino drops out of stakes competition and figures to take money off his string of second place finishers at the level. However, those came against weaker maiden special weight fields before the GP Championship meet commenced. 2 Now Is has had plenty of chances in eight career starts and goes out for a barn is 0/33 on the year. At short prices, these two are worthy bet against candidates. My top selection goes to the Todd Pletcher trainee 7 Don’t Tase Me Bro. American Pharaoh progeny have been especially precocious on the turf, including BC Juvenile Turf Sprint winner Four Wheel Drive. The only sib was 3 for 5 in England on the turf and while the dam was 0/1 on the turf, she was a half to six turf winners. Pletcher is a robust 20% with a $2.13 ROI with 2YO first time starters on the turf at Gulfstream Park. The dangerous Jason Servis sends out 4 First String for owners Gary and Mary West. A $160k purchase, the daughter of Princess Liam doesn’t possess much turf pedigree, but Servis is a solid 7 for 23 (30%, $2.78) with first time starters in turf sprints. While the turf debut of 5 Strong Ending wasn’t overly special, he seemed very green throughout and seemed to figure out what he was doing late, making up some ground. Given the solid turf pedigree, he figures to improve and offers upside at a square price.
Race 2 – 3+ CLM $6.5k N3L – Dirt – 6 ½ F
Selections: 5-3-2
The 2nd features a confusing group of non-winners of three lifetime claiming horses who feature no stand outs. For that reason, I’m against the morning line favorite 6 Winning Game. While his last race on dirt fits with this group, it does not stand out and he figures to take money off his recent turf figures. I’ve landed on 5 Susikin as my top pick. Nagib Aboughaida has not missed a beat since taking over for the suspended Gilberto Zepra, winning at a 32% clip (6 for 19 at the meet). Her last race, while against weaker N2L company, was excellent, running near a fast pace and holding on for the victory. Given the lack of pace signed on a repeat of that effort would be tough to beat. Aboughaida’s second runner, 3 Only in August, has two of the best figs in the field but figures to be pace compromised given the lack of speed– even with a fast pace in front of him last out he was unable to finish better than third. 2 Chiqui the Gray has plenty of back races that would fit here but has been off form for some time now. There’s a possibility that the switch to the Azpurua barn will wake her up, but his numbers on trainer switches are sub par — 2/13 (15%, $0.96) off trainer switches on dirt
Race 3 – 3+ FL AOC $40k – N1x/$16k – Turf – 5 F
Selections: 3-2-6
Race 3 continues the trend of wide open races featured in the early pick 5, with all eight runners being listed between 3-1 and 8-1 on the morning line. Given the little separation between the runners, I’ve landed on 3 Apache Brave, the longest price on the morning line. His last race, albeit over 90 days ago, was a solid effort where he closed into a very moderate pace, nearly missing the winner. He figures to sit the perfect trip as the runners breaking from his inside (1 R Boy Bode and 2 Tale of Kantharos) should be vying for the lead, leaving an opening for a perfect pocket trip behind the speed.. One of 2 Tale of Kantharos or 6 Doctor Dub could end up being the speed of speed given their recent efforts. 2 Tale of Kantharos ran a career best last out, nearly wiring a group of $16k open claimers. 6 Doctor Dub has finally stringed together a series of races after two extended layoffs. His race two back at 7 ½ F would be good enough to win here if he can transition his early speed to today’s 5 furlongs. Ultimately, I’m not sure there is a horse in this field who isn’t capable of winning.
Race 4 – 3+ CLM $12k N2L – Dirt – 1 M
Selections: 1-5-4
I unfortunately do not have much to offer in terms of creativity in the fourth race. The three shortest prices on the morning line look to be the three most likeliest winners. 1 Flawless Moon likely has the most upside entering his 2nd career start. D’Angelo is an excellent 5 for 12 (42%, $1.91) first off the claim on dirt, further indicating that improvement is certainly a possibility. 5 Quality Special is taking a massive class drop from allowance company after not running a step in those two starts. If he can run back to his maiden breaking race he should dominate this field. However, that came setting a slow pace on a speed favoring track. 4 Third Army’s only dirt race makes him competitive with his field.
Race 5 – 3+ CLM $35k N3L – Turf – 1 M
Selections: 4-7-1
4 Belgrano drops back down into the claiming ranks after four unsuccessful attempts against allowance company. While he hasn’t done much running those starts, they’ve just come against significantly better. Furthermore, the Jorge Abreu barn has been running extremely well in Florida, starting the meet by winning with 3 of his 7 starters. 7 Robintakincharge figures to be the other logical player and will try to take the field gate to wire. His race last out was an impressive effort, setting the pace while the other speed crumbled, managing to almost hold on for the victory. Given the overall lack of speed, he could manage to wire the field. 1 Iconic returns to turf off the claim for Mike Maker, a surprisingly sub par move for the barn — 10%, $1.22 first off the claim going dirt to turf. However, his back turf races came against significantly better and could be finding the easiest turf spot of his career.
Race 6 – 2YO MSW $50k – Dirt – 6 F
Selections: 7-8-2
While I’ll be including in any multi-race play, I’m ultimately trying to fade the two Todd Pletcher entrants in any intra-race bets. 1 Carpe Omnious goes out for a Dam who is 0/8 and has a family that would point more for turf. While they did pay $550k for this son of Carpe Diem, his works look average at best. Similarly, 3 Texas Swing was also an expensive purchase at $275k and has a dam family that largey ran on synthetic surfaces. I fully admit I won’t be surprised when either wins but at short prices I think others are more interesting. My top selection goes to the likely favorite 7 All Eyes West, who exits a decent 3rd in the Smoke Glacken Stake at Monmouth. That race has come back extremely live as the winner came back to run second to likely Derby contender Independence Hall in the Nashua at Aqueduct and the 2nd place finisher came back to win a state bred list stakes. Both of his races make him extremely logical. The Ralph Nicks barn has been sending out live winners early in the meet, starting 7 for 22 (32%), including impressive maiden breaker Untitled last Saturday. He looks to send out another live one in 8 Show No Mercy. While Sire Fort Loudon has not sent many to the track thus far, all three have managed to secure a win and both sibs have won on dirt. Nicks is an excellent 25%, $2.49 with dirt first timing starting 2 year olds. 2 Unconquered Lea has one of the more impressive work tabs you will see, putting in a bullet out of 88 workers on December 14th. The tab is littered with other impressive times. However, Ben Perkins record with dirt first time starters is very concerning — 2/36 (6%, $0.70). However, it might not matter given the potential this one has shown in the morning.
Race 7 – 3+ MCL $50k – Turf – 1 1/16 M
Selections: 3-5-6
Race 8 – 2YO CLM $35k – Dirt – 6 ½ F
Selections: 3-5-9
Race 9 – 3+ CLM $35k N2L – Turf – 1 1/16 M
Selections: 8-12-11
The 9th goes off as a deep race with a full field of N2L claiming horses, returning four from the December 1st edition. Out of that field, I want to bet 8 Solar back. While he received early pace to run into, he was never put in the clear, always trying to close in between horses, a slightly uncomfortable trip. He should once again receive pace to run into and with a cleaner trip should be running late. 12 Vegas Kitten returns off the extended layoff for Mike Maker who is an average 15% with a $1.44 ROI off layoffs between 180 and 360 days on turf. However, he’s returning to face the easiest field of his career and should receive plenty of pace to run into. He’s been working consistently since the end of October with a number of 5 F workouts. While 11 Saltking hasn’t done much running in his allowance races in New York, he’s been facing significantly tougher. Similarly to the aforementioned runners, he should receive plenty of pace to run into. 1 Burn the Boats, 3 Positive Phil and 5 Sir Seamus are all worthy on their individual merits but given their running style should be involved in a contested early pace.
Race 10 – G3 Mr. Prospector Stakes $100k – Dirt – 7 F
Selections: 5-2-6-3
The Grade 3 Mr. Prospector Stakes brings together two of the best sprinters in the country in 2 Imperial Hint and 3 X Y Jet. There is no denying that those two are the horses to beat & figure to take plenty of money. However, on paper, those two are not absolute standouts, especially 3 X Y Jet. The 7 F distance proves to be a major question as he’s 0 for 3 in career and figures to receive some pace pressure from 2 Imperial Hint. Furthermore, the Navarro barn has been noticeably chilly relative to their normal performance, going 4 for 43 (9%) in his last 30 days at Gulfstream. I have less knocks against 2 Imperial Hint– he’s 3 for 5 at the distance and possess a very versatile running style to adapt to any pace setup. Before his unfortunate scratch at the Breeders Cup, he appeared to be in career form. I’m going to take a shot with 5 Lasting Legacy. Servis is firing on all cylinders at Gulfstream, 6 for 18 (33%) in the last 30 days and has Lasting Legacy coming in at peak form. I liked his effort last out, sitting off a slow pace and making a nice move to win by a comfortable margin. He’s improved in three straight starts for one of the most dangerous trainers in the game. I also want to highlight 6 Diamond Oops, who also has a chance at the upset. He was in peak form before the Breeders Cup before putting in a non-effort chasing a wire to wire winner. Given how the track was playing it might be worth putting a line through that effort.
Race 11 – 2YO MCL $25k – Turf – 1 1/16 M
Selections: 4-9-5
The card concludes with a wide open 2YO maiden claiming race. There isn’t much turf form to go on but 4 Bacano seems to be improving last start, including making a long sustaining four wide move last out, while the winner of that race had a dream trip up the rail. He should get enough pace to close into. 9 Mystery Bank is logical off a solid effort against a much tougher maiden special weight field. However, he will have to stretch out from 5 F to 1 1/16 M as the morning line favorite & a short price. The pedigree suggests he should be good be okay on the stretch out. 5 Muhlenberg doesn’t have much pedigree on the dam side but Mr Speaker was a graded stakes winner and should provide some turf influence. Anthony Pecorano is a solid 7 for 33 (21%, $1.83) with horses going dirt to turf.