Gulfstream Park Racing Analysis — Saturday, December 15, 2018, by Ivan Lopez

Gulfstream Park has another mega card in store for us on Saturday, with five Graded Stakes to be run. The feature is the Grade II Fort Lauderdale for turfers going nine furlongs, but there are four Grade IIIs also on tap. Let’s take a look at the eleven races:

1st race: 7 Furlongs. MC 35000. FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD.

Cyrus (#6) –A puzzle to begin the afternoon. This horse was gelded after his last race and has been given plenty of time to recover (Ouch!). Comes back with sharp works and Jeffrey Sanchez, one of the main jockeys for trainer Stanley Gold, will keep the mount. Both hit at a 21% clip when paired, with a $0.58 ROI.

She Love Me (#7) – If he repeats the race in which he lost by just a neck to Tax, who later placed in the Grade II Remsen, he will be tough to beat. But before and after that race, has performances who do not match with that one. Landeros has been on a hot streak lately and stays aboard.

Watch Cairo (#4) – First time starts out of Cairo Prince, who has been a very productive rookie sire. He has been working steadily since August and Brian Lynch hots at a 22% clip at the maiden claiming level.

2nd race: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Clm 16000. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.

Bay Bridge (#15) – If he draws in, which I doubt, I think he is the horse to beat. Has been running against much better horses than this bunch and now is under the care of Jorge Navarro, who immediately drops him to a more suitable spot. Jose Ortiz has the call and should be part of the first flight from the latch.

Billy Big (#12) – That outside post is no easy task to overcome, but this race lacks true speed from the gate, and Alvarado is a good off the gate rider and should prominent from the start. Works have been solid and consistent down at GPW and the last time he ran in this group, he won.

Dave Hoeght (#11) – Compromised by the lack of initial zip in this race, but extremely reliable in these groups, and this year has been very popular on the claim box. Quick last breeze, maybe looking to be closer to the pace.

3rd race: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) ™OC 75000b. FOR FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD.

Red Hot Dame (#10) – It’s Pletcher and Castellano in a sprint on the grass. I think we know from the Breeders Cup that those two can form a very nice combination, and are back at it with this filly that drops from a stakes race to a more suitable placing. Should have plenty of pace to run at. I will prefer if she had an additional furlong to work with, but Castellano is a magician at judging where the wire is.

Flashy Doll (#2) – Undefeated in two starts, both of them on the dirt. Now ventures on the grass and incites Irad Ortiz Jr. to ride her, always a positive sign. She has proven she does not have to go to the lead to be effective, so the only question is how she will handle the lawn.

Eyeinthesky (#1) – She drops from competing in a Grade I at Woodbine to this allowance rcae, but draws the uncomfortable rail in this very short sprint. Maybe with a better post, she would have been my favorite, but should be part of the exotics if she repeats what she has done lately.

4th race: 6 Furlongs. Clm 12500n2L. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.

House of Commons (#5) –Drops to face non-winners of two for just the second time in his career, and now Luis Saez takes the call, and he should be able to put him forwardly placed from the start, in a race in which we don’t see much speed signed in.

It’s a New Year (#4) – Takes the always-helpful cutback in distance and Navarro takes over his conditioning. That alone should make him a big contender in here, and Jaramillo stays on the saddle. Has two good works in preparation.

Fafa (#1) – 1 for 14 is nothing to brag about, but he has been running in much tougher races that this one, and his figures compare favorably with the others running in here.

5th race: 1ˆMile. Harlan’s Holiday S. Grade III. THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.

Audible (#1) – It’s hard to envision this horse losing this race, which will serve as a prep for the Pegasus in January 26th. His come back race was superb, in a distance way shorter than the ones he prefers and the quality of his opposition is suspect to say the least.

Village King (#4) – Just won the off-the-turf Red Smith a month ago, in which was his first race on the main track in the US. Obviously, Castellano stayed on Audible, but Johnny V. should fit him like a glove. Still needs to improve on his best to beat the big favorite.

Sightforyoureyes (#3) – This grizzled old veteran is definitely on the improvement side, having faced the likes of Leofric and Imperial Hint over the last three months. Besides Audible, this is a weaker group, so he should be in good position for a minor share.

6th race: 6 Furlongs. MC 25000. FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD.

Do What it Takes (#7) – I like the quick turnaround for this filly, who raced just thirteen days ago in a lower priced maiden claiming group. Now with that experience under her belt and conditioned by a trainer who hits at a 26% clip second time out, I expect a good showing from her.

Dana Grace (#10) – The cutback from seven to six furlongs should benefit her, and from that number ten post, she should be in a nice striking position when all marbles count. Jonathan Gonzalez repeats for trainer Kathy Ritvo.

Glorious Mystery (#5) – In a card in which there are five graded stakes scheduled, Irad Ortiz takes this call in a maiden claimer race. Do the math. Working nicely for her come back from three and a half months on the shelf, her trainer takes the shades off.

7th race: 1 Mile. Mdn 60k. FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD.

Rack Gin (#4) – I will take a shot with this debut runner, whose progression on his works is what I like to see for a first time starter. Eclipse Award favorite Irad Ortiz climbs he saddle for trainer Bobby Dibona, and he should offer a hefty price.

Gran Causeway (#5) – Drew the rail in his vow run but showed some ability coming in second to a runaway winner at 19-1. Now draws much better, has the experience and Luis Saez is a sizable upgrade in jockey. Trainer Victor Barboza still has the hot hand.

Bebeau (#2) – Pletcher is beginning to unload his arsenal for the Derby Trail. This one seems to be ready to fire first time out, and although will go from a very tough post, he looks to be primed for a top effort.

8th race: 1 Mile. Rampart S. Grade III. FILLIES AND MARES, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.

Tequilita (#5) – I will draw a line over those last two starts. She encountered a muddy track on her most recent and she is much better at this distance. Luis Saez rides back for Michael Matz and she will be intently watching the speed duel develop.

Electric Forest (#1) – In her first race after a six month layoff, she won pretty convincingly. She seemed to tire a lil bit towards the end, but she should be much fitter for today.  Jose Ortiz talks the return call for Eclipse Award trainer Chad Brown.

Tweeting (#2) – Third race for new trainer Jorge Navarro, under which her improvement has been dramatic. She just missed winning a pretty tough listed stakes at Laurel, and will be part of that early fray that should happen here.

9th race: 1Mile.(Turf) My Charmer S. Grade III. FILLIES AND MARES, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.

La Moneda (#6) – Six wins out of ten lifetime races indicate she is a gem of consistency. It is true the majority of her races have come against state bred competition, but again, this is not a very strong group at all. Johnny V. rides her for the first time.

Bellavais (#1) – In her first race running for Todd Pletcher, she showed new life, winning a tough optional claimer. Now climbs the ladder and Castellano will relish the opportunity to ride the rail against fillies that have not distinguished themselves at the graded level.

Capla Temptress  (#8) – Four of her last five efforts have come at the Grade I level, so the drop in class is substantial, and that by itself gives her a nice chance in here. Underrated Joe Bravo rides for Hall of Famer Bill Mott.

10th race: 6Furlongs. Sugar Swirl S. Grade III. FILLIES AND MARES, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.

Dream Pauline (#7) – She was scratched from a stakes race last week at Aqueduct to wait for this one, and maybe it was a clever move by her connections, who now do not have to face the very tough Vertical Oak. That last race was a much better than looks third, and from that seven hole should be able to sit a nice garden spot trip.

Awestruck (#2) – She is sporting the best condition of her life. That last race was a very good second after having some traffic problems. Brian Hernandez knows her like the palm of his hand, although a lil bit allergic to the wire for my taste.

Stormy Embrace (#4) – Didn’t lift a hoof in the Breeders Cup, a race in which I picked her as favorite. Easier spot, no question about it, but the race was too bad for my liking. Gaffalione rides back, a positive sign among all the negatives.

11th race: 1 1/8 Mile.(Turf) Ft. Lauderdale S. Grade II. THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.

Divisidero (#10) – Very gutsy run in the Breeders Cup, in a distance which is not his preferred one. That why I think he faltered somewhat in the last strides. Now goes into a trip he is much more comfortable with and Jevian Toledo makes the trip from Maryland to ride him.

Qurbaan (#4) – Third race after a long stay on the bench, I think we will see a much better performance from him today. Joe Bravo and Kiaran Mc Laughlin form a powerful tandem, hitting at 22% and Bravo has always been a favorite for Shadwell.

Glorious Empire (#1) – The only one capable to go wire to wire here. He should dominate Blacktype and  if he is able to put some easy fractions, their rivals will have a very tough time catching him. Veteran Edgar Prado rides for James Lawrence.

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