After a week of a couple chalky days and one day with nice prices we are back in store for another week of good racing. We kickoff the week with a 7 race program. As always a quick review of last week which included the introduction of the Golden Hour Double which was quite a popular bet the first day put into the wagering menu. A $5 minimum bet produced a pool of around $108k and paid bettors $48.50 with two horses going off as a favorite and second choice. Hot and cold jockeys and trainers from last week include: Bill Mclean who has saddled 4 winners in his last 10 including 7 in the money finishes, Reid France who has 3 wins out of 8 starters including 6 in the money. Juan Hernandez seems to be part of the writeup every week. In fact he went 9 for 21 last week with 9 seconds or thirds. He is just running away from the other jockeys in terms of the jockey standings. Frank Alvarado also had a nice week of riding with 6 wins out of 14 starts. On the cold side however Clifford Delima is 0 for his last 11 and jockey Brayan Pena is 0 for his last 13.
As far as our handicapping went we were off in terms of our top pick winners but our top three selections covered the card. We hope for a little more success today with our top picks..
71 races selections – 22 top pick winners (31%), 44 top picks in the money (62%)
Here are my thoughts on the 7 race program:
Race 1: 1 Mile $4,000 Claiming F & M 4 & up (1-5-6)
Seems to be a paceless race here.
1 Private Kitty appears to be one of the few runners in here who could be on the front end. That’s important because this race looks like a paceless race. If she gets a walking lead up front she could be tough in the stretch. Only concern is if the layoff returning runner 2 Tooley Tunes sends up front to get as far as she can go, that won’t benefit our top pick at all.
5 My Idol is our second pick here. She’s a hard knocking runner with a couple of seconds since being claimed by trainer Quinn Howey. She could be the one to beat in here but she seemed to have the length of the stretch to go by her last out winner but just never did so. Maybe if that race takes something out of her she might not have her usual kick.
6 Lizzy’s Inthegame seems to always run on a Thursday because it seems like everytime she runs I’ve written about her. She is a horse that will be coming from well out of it. There is no speed at all so it will be a tough job to get the win but her past shows she could get into the money. Route races have also been her best runs.
Race 2: 1 Mile & 1/16 $5,000 Claiming 4 year olds & up (4-3-2)
4 Temple View will be the top pick here. I would like to cross out his last race. It was an odd drop in class that day plus it was an awfully slow race. Today there appears to be more pace for this gelding to chase. Jonathan Wong reclaims this runner. He is 2 for 2 with this horse and gets his go to rider Juan Hernandez aboard.
3 Koa Cat appeared to not have much of a kick last time out. Since that race trainer Jack Steiner put in a workout in the morning hoping to freshen him up. Kent Desormeaux hops aboard today. Expect this gelding to sit a stalking trip and pounce turning for home.
2 On the Wings Of is a gelding stepping up in class. He finished fourth last time making up ground to a winner who is in here as well. There was no pace to chase last out. Today with a little more speed up front, it could set up for him to be running on late.
Other to consider: 6 Askin’ for Trouble went gate to wire in a very slow race. I don’t think he will contest for the lead today. Expect him to sit a stalking trip and look to pounce. Gelding is also stepping up in class just a bit.
Race 3: 5.5 Furlongs $8,000 Maiden Claiming 3 year old Fillies (1-2-6)
1 Keepinmypromise will be the top pick here. She’s dropping in class slightly and now in a new barn. She returns to the 5.5 furlong trip where she ran on for second two starts back. Only negative for her is the post position drawing the rail again.
2 Sweet Divine is a second time starter for trainer Isidro Tamayo. Isidro is 15% with maiden second timers. The blinkers are going on this filly who should improve quite a bit after just one start.
6 Tahoe Blue is priced at big odds however if you cross out her last two starts against one level of competition tougher than this group, she has one running line that stands out. Her debut she sat off the pace and rallied. She’s 20/1 today and I’m not saying she’ll win but I think she will outrun her odds.
Others to consider: 4 Toni Two Pocket is dropping in class but has always run the same races over and over. Speed and fade in the stretch. Blinkers come off which is interesting. 3 Desert Fog takes a huge drop from open maiden company to maiden claiming. Speed and fade on debut and won’t be alone on the front end. 5 Glace Bay Girl is a first time starter for Steve Sherman. He’s not known for super numbers with firsters however keep an eye on this filly to see how she runs and maybe second time out she will be a contender.
Race 4: 1 Mile Starter Allowance $50,000 3 year olds (2-1-5)
2 Megameister is looking for his third win in a row. The son of Bodemeister has not been behind a runner since going two turns and coming up north. He had a bit of a pace battle but he cleared off in the stretch. This gelding could be tough to beat.
1 Active Pass will be going two turns for the first time. His sprint races have been stalk and pounce coming home late. The added ground should improve this geldings running ability late. 4/1 price is not bad either.
5 Praise Loudly exits the El Camino Real Derby last out where he was simply outclassed by the competition. He returns to starter allowance company where he’s run third twice. In fact he finished behind our top pick two back. Gelding should be a contender with the class relief today.
Other to consider: 3 Kona Skye finished second sandwiched by our top and third pick last out. He can go to the front but he can’t seem to keep up with our top pick. If given an easy lead then he’ll have a shot however I don’t see that scenario unfolding.
Race 5: 5.5 Furlongs $8,000 Maiden Claiming 3 year old Fillies (1-4-3)
1 Coach’s Valentine was much the best on debut last out. She was beaten a neck after having an average getaway. Rene Amescua has had a nice meet and has a 20% win percentage from maiden second time starters. Only negative is the inside post position but she does get another half furlong to run at.
4 Commissioness ran an average race looking at the paper but he was making up ground in the stretch. He gets more room to run at as her race two back was the closest she’s been. Will need to pass some runners from a common last out race to win.
3 Tiz the Standard runs the same race over and over. She’s a 10 time maiden and has 5 second or thirds. She stalks and looms up on the turn and weakens her rally in the stretch. Just don’t know what to make of her.
Others to consider: 2 Caribou Chianti is a firster for trainer Jeff Metz. This horse has worked quite a bit over the track. WIll be interesting to see how she does. 6 Eight O Five drops in class and puts the blinkers on. She has shown speed and faded in all three starts. Don’t know how the blinkers will change her. 7 Proud to Shoyu broke a step slow and didn’t run her race on debut. Blinkers on and and outside post to be in the clear. Could be sneaky with the unknown racing form.
Race 6: 5.5 Furlongs Allowance Optional Claiming $50,000 3 year olds (2-5-6)
A good mini feature to kick off the late double. Trying to beat Bulletproof One since there appears to be another speed contender.
2 Little Cents has been a very consistent runner over this tapeta surface. Since running at Del Mar last summer he hasn’t been out of the exacta. He sits a stalking trip and looks to pounce into the stretch. There appears to be quite the amount of speed for him to run into.
5 Foreign Protocol will look for back to back wins. Cuts back half a furlong today and will be coming late. Actually beat a couple competitors last out but was also beaten by some two back.
6 Admirably is an interesting play at 5/1. His maiden win was going wire to wire but his recent races have been stalking the pace and rallying in the stretch. Never been out the trifecta over this tapeta surface.
Other to consider: 1 Jive Talkin broke the maiden going wire to wire last out. He won’t win if he does that again. I think his best chance is to stalk the pace and rally. Actually lost to our third pick on debut.
Race 7: 5.5 Furlongs Starter Allowance $50,000 3 year old Fillies (9-3-7)
9 Friend of Autism will be cutting back from a route to a sprint. She should be the one with the most stamina. If she gets a pace to run at she will be the one to watch in the stretch. Hernandez and Wong team up once again and this time could be a price at 5/1.
3 On Purpose comes west after racing at Turfway Park. She broke the maiden for 30 going wire to wire. Will step up to face allowance company. Could face speed pressure up front today.
7 Pearl Dragon has run a couple decent races at the allowance ranks. She sits close and hangs in there in the stretch. The pace setup could help her.
Other to consider: 8 Tippy Top will need to pass some runners out of a common event last out. She is another one who will benefit from the hot pace up front. 4 Draw Me ran a good rae at the allowance optional claiming ranks at 73/1. Maybe there’s a reason why she went off that high and today is 6/ 1. 5 Miss Ski broke the maiden stalking from just off the pace. Won at a price that day in a slow race and thus the big 20/1 line.
Best bet: Race 5 Coach’s Valentine 2/1
Price play: Race 7 Friend of Autism 5/1
Good luck with all your plays this Thursday!