It’s a special Monday of racing with Presidents Day today. 8 races on tap as we conclude the racing week highlighted by Bob Baffert’s Azul Coast winning three El Camino Real Derby. Unfortunately Anneau d’Or finished off the board in the Risen Star at fair Grounds but we will continue to track him going forward. As far as our picks thus far this week we’ve had 7 top pick winners in 16 races. Look for an ROI next time I have time to see how I’ve done but here are my picks for this Monday. It appears to be straight forward early but the latter part of the card may offer more value.
Race 1: 5.5 Furlongs $3,200 Claiming 4 year olds & up (1-4-6)
1 Many Moods will be looking for his third win a row today. He’s making his first start off the claim for trainer Jack Steiner who has a 38% win clip first off his last 13 claims. He also has a high 29% win clip at the current meet. Top jockey Juan Hernandez retains the mount on this speedy gelding. He should show speedy along with another horse to his outside. Hopefully he will clear off turning for home.
4 Mo Dinero is another runner making his first start off the claim for his new connections Quinn Howey who is flourishing with a 33% win clip. He has a good track record as well with runners off the claim 31% wins from his last 16. Kent Desormeaux gets aboard this gelding who is running on his favorite surface by far. Expect him to sit off the early speed and make a run turning for home. Has a big look if the speeders stop.
6 Mr. Diplomat one of two runners for a slumping Felix Rondan. This horse draws the 7 pound apprentice and should have speed to chase. Has finished behind our top pick twice before. Don’t expect a win but could fire for a spot underneath especially with his late running style in this speed filled race.
Other to consider: 5 Flynn will absolutely be one of the horses in front after a furlong. He has shown the ability to wire the field in the past but of late he’s cleared off and come back to the field turning for home. Maybe the class drop makes the difference with him stopping but there is other speed and 7/5 isn’t attractive.
Race 2: 1 Mile $8,000 Maiden Claiming 3 year olds (3-6-4)
Interesting side note. All but the outside runner started their career down south.
3 Spider Rico is taking a drop in class from the 12.5 condition to this condition. He finished fourth last out beaten two lengths. The second place finisher came back this weekend to break his maiden at that condition. Class drop and ability to stalk off the pace makes this horse a candidate. He has also just shown better racing lines especially comparing to the couple new faces shipping in from SoCal.
6 North Fork finished seventh well beaten last time. He was picking up some pieces passing runners late. Taking the blinkers off and dropping another level in class. Appears valuable at 10/1.
4 Affirmracer is the 9/5 morning line favorite. No horse in here should be that low of a price. He has only raced twice and his last journey was just 5 furlongs. I get that he ran impressive despite breaking slow but first time routing will be a question mark. Way he made up ground last time should be beneficial going two turns.
Race 3: 1 Mile $3,200 Claiming 4 year olds & up (3-5-2) These three standout over the rest by far.
3 Temple View is coming in on a three race win streak. During this win streak he has also been claimed four straight times. But it’s been for only two barns. Steve Miyadi reclaimed this runner last time and drops him in class to the 3,200 level. Could sit just off the leaders and pounce turning for home.
5 Candy’s Martini is another coming in on a win streak. This gelding is a nine time winner who should be sitting a similar trip to the top pick. Second place finisher last out has come back to win. Julien Couton rides this horse well and certainly could make it three in a row.
2 Monsajem Pervade is heavily favored on the morning line at 7/5. He has faced much tougher company for sure as he drops from the 8 claimers to this 3200 claiming condition. Certainly could be the superior of the field but he launches from well back in a race without a lot of speed.
Race 4: 6 Furlongs $8,000 Claiming F & M 4 & up (4-5-3)
4 Vacaville Special takes off the blinkers after rallying from last to fourth last time out. She should benefit from the extra half furlong of added ground. Five time winner will look for a pace to chase at 8/1.
5 Pastorate will probably be on the engine early. She set the pace last out and held second going 5.5 furlongs. The extra half furlong will have her trying to hold on for the money against the others in here.
3 Diamondsnchampagne will step back up the class ladder coming off two lower level wins. She’s a six time winner over this tapeta surface and will have to hold on for another half furlong as she also stretches back out to 6 furlongs.
Others to consider: 7 Sierra Sunrise should benefit from the early speed. She should be coming for the minors late. Hopefully not too late. The extra half furlong will help for sure. 1 Ramoncita Light comes in off a win at a lower n2L level. Steps up in class and draws an extra half furlong. Should also be coming from the back.
Race 5: 6 Furlongs $12,500 Maiden Claiming 3 year old Fillies (1-3-6)
1 Keepinmypromise ran well last time out making up a lot of ground late. Gets an extra half furlong to hopefully get into the winner circle. She draws an unfavorable rail draw but if she has speed to catch it will benefit her.
3 Stand in Your Love is a second time starter who puts on blinkers today. She was out finished in the stretch losing ground and ending up third. Hopefully blinkers can keep her going today.
6 Kenna Is Spicy is a first time starter for trainer William Delia. He has had success in the past with debuting maiden claimers. Top go to jockey for Delia Catalino Martinez gets the mount today.
Other firsters: 7 Sweet Divine is a first timer for Isidro Tamayo. It’s a rare time I’ve seen Tamayo with a firster. Usually Tamayo is associated with horses off the claim. This filly could be one to watch next out. 8 Gifty is a firster for Greg James. His runners usually can run sneaky good here and there. Draws an outside post to avoid traffic.
Race 6: 1 Mile $12,500 Claiming 4 year olds & up (6-1-4) This appears to be a race for third as two horses stand out by far.
6 Shifty Dancer looks for back to back wins. Comes out of a 4K starter allowance event. Steps up in class but appears to be a wire to wire candidate for a runner coming out of the red hot Jonathan Wong barn. He’s had a good couple weeks winning two races a day nearly. Looks to be the lone speed in this event.
1 Mr. Q is exiting a common race to our top pick. Two starts back he came on from off the pace. He will benefit from a pace to chase but if not will be coming on late. Still has to make up a couple lengths on the top pick here. Top jockey Juan Hernandez who had success in the past with this gelding rides back.
4 Native Chieftain is a horse that could mess with the top picks lone lead. In the past this gelding has been on the lead and is capable of going gate to wire. Is making second start off the break and is a respectable seven time winner.
Race 7: 1 Mile Maiden Special Weight 3 year old Fillies (2-4-5)
2 Mylittlerunaway went way too fast last time. 23 flat and 48 flat is a wicked opening speed. Blinkers go off this filly hoping to relax the filly. Jockey Kent Desormeaux gets aboard today. Interesting note is she took on the boys last out losing to American Farmer who ran a huge second in the El Camino Real Derby Saturday.
4 Foggy Bottom will go from a sprint to a route today. In the past she’s been able to sit off the pace and rally into the money. I expect there to be more speed up front benefiting her late running kick. Hoping she sits midpack and not dead last.
5 Claudia Jean is a shipper for SoCal based trainer Anna Meah. I like her race two back where she stalked and rallied to just miss late. She faced tougher down south on turf last out. Blinkers go off this filly and I’m hoping her two back race is duplicated.
Others to consider: 3 Zakar one of two sprinters to a route for the Wong stable. This filly was a 175k Keeneland September purchase in 2018. The route should be to her liking. 7 Torquay ran a good race sprinting on debut. She picked up the pieces moving past runners late. Steps up in class to face tougher but should like the added ground. 1 Kayla’s Cowgirl goes from facing state Breda to now open company. Speed and fade so probably will be quicker of the two runners for Wong.
Race 8: 5.5 Furlongs $3,200 Claiming 4 year olds & up (1-3-4-5)
1 Zippy Groom fanned four wide and just missed by a nose last out. Two back he rallied and won at this condition as the favorite. Morning line is a nice 5/1 today. Only negative is the inside post position.
3 Intimidate exits a common race to our top pick. He was third beaten half a length. Last two sprints have been similar stalk and pounce runs. Definitely taking steps forward recently.
4 Tuscan Warrior is a first off the claim runner for Jonathan Wong. Horse didn’t fire last time well behind our top picks. Cross that race off he’s sitting on a couple good races with a win and second. All the worth wondering what happened last time and is Wong going to be stopped here.
5 Power Times Two is taking a slight drop in class today. Could stalk off the pace and make a run if good enough. He does his best running late.
Long shots underneath: 8 Union Wine cuts back from a route to a sprint. Could show speed as he’s done in past and possibly fade or try and stalk the pace and rally. Big price 20/1. 9 Lil’ Chieftain is taking another drop in class. He hasn’t won in over two years. Will probably be part of the speed duel to setup closers.
Best bet: Race 7 Mylittlerunaway 2/1
Price plays:
Race 4 Vacaville Special 8/1
Race 8 Zippy Groom 5/1
Good luck today and next week! Three days of racing next week Friday to Sunday. We’ll be back for another write up in 10 days.