Golden Gate Fields Racing Analysis — Thursday, May 14, 2020, by Dave Chen

After being shut down for 6 weeks, we are back up and running today at Golden Gate Fields. First post is 12:45 and today we have 80 horses entered for the 9 race program. Also we have a mandatory payout in the Golden Pick 6 Jackpot. The carryover is around $398,000 and the pool of new money is expected to get around $2 million or maybe more.

In addition to just racing we are back on the turf after racing on tapeta over the spring. We have 4 races over the turf course today. The racing should be very competitive this weekend as we also have a 10 race program tomorrow with an early first post of 12:15. The highlight of the rest of this meet will be the San Francisco Mile which was originally scheduled for the end of April but will now be on closing day. 4 of the 8 stakes races from Gold Rush Weekend have been rescheduled to run over the remainder of the meet while the other 4 will be rescheduled for the Summer or Fall Meet. One other rescheduled stake race includes the Alcatraz which was scheduled to be run this weekend but will now be pushed back to closing Saturday. The All American will be first up on Memorial Day and the last three weekends will have a stake race each day.

More information can be found on goldengatefields.com but now let’s get back into today’s program. Jockeys and trainers will hope to continue their success prior to the shut down of racing including Juan Hernandez, Kent Desormeaux, Jonathan Wong, and Quinn Howey and more. Here are my thoughts for today:

99 race selections – 28 top pick winners (28%), 65 top picks in the money (66%)

Race 1: 1 Mile & 1/16 Turf Starter Allowance $50,000 F & M 3 & up (5-3-1)

We’re back with a turf race to kick off the day.

5 Posh Holly is stepping up in class from 20 claimers to the starter allowance ranks. She was last seen making her first start off a 4 month break and ran well finishing second to a talented filly in who has never missed the exacta over the surface. She gets back on the turf where she was stakes placed as a 2 year old. Also get Frank Alvarado aboard on the turf. Looks like some value to start the day.

3 Shanghai Truffles ships back up North for trainer Patrick Gallagher. This filly has been here before but both tries were on tapeta. Her race two back makes her a big play here as she finished second at this level down South. She and our top pick are the only winners on turf. Ignore the last race because of the poor break and a sprint race. Good jockey trainer combo here of Couton and Gallagher.

1 Dreaming About You will be coming from well out of it. She should benefit from the pace scenario but the question is whether she’s good enough to win. She comes out of a 12.5 claiming event so she’s stepping up in class. Her lone turf run in the past was not bad either as she finished second.

Horse to watch: 2 Lady of Perception is a lightly raced filly. She broke the maiden for 25 sprinting and then finished third last out in this condition sprinting. She should appreciate the added ground and the question will be how she handles the turf. I like her odds at 10/1 underneath and will keep an eye on her next time out.

Race 2: 5 Furlongs Tapeta $5,000 Maiden Claiming F & M 3 & up (8-2-3)

Bottom level claimers here. Some class droppers and some horses who have run at this level over and over.

8 Rebel At Heart will be the pick here. She has not run well since finishing second in her first four tries. Since she has dropped in class each race. Dropping to the basement she also takes the blinkers off. She’s been working steadily and looks like she’ll be ready today. Francisco Monroy hopefully will keep her in the clear.

2 Bank of Many is the most experienced and oldest in this field. She is a 14 time maiden and that’s not a good stat line however she has faced tougher in the past. In her first try dropping into the basement level she set the pace and faded to third going long. The stamina should hold up with the cutback to 5 furlongs today.

3 Jemsek is a new shooter. She ships back up North after racing down South at night at Los Alamitos. She was actually here in the past for one run against Cal Bred maidens where she finished a well beaten 7th. Hoping the drop to Los Al gave her some confidence to run well here. 

Others to watch: 5 Subtweet is a second time starter who drops in class after a subpar debut. 7 Please Zip It is a 12 time maiden who cuts back to 5 furlongs. Originally purchased for $50,000 but in today for 5. 4 Charming Lass is one of a couple 3 year olds facing older. She has yet to hit the board in six tries and drops to the basement level and is 4/1. 9 Capo Vino is a lightly raced 4 year old. She cuts back from a mile to 5 furlongs. Interesting to see what she does out of the gate.

Race 3: 6 Furlongs Tapeta $12,500 Maiden Claiming 3 year old Fillies (2-4-3)

2 Takes a Village is an experienced 11 time maiden but she has faced tougher competition than many of the other runners. She dropped from open maidens to 25 and drops in half today. She has speed and has tired in the past. The class drop should do her a big favor. Good speed jockey William Antongeorgi gets back aboard.

4 Sassy and Hot would have been the best bet if racing had been conducted on April 2. She was the lone speed that day however today she won’t be alone up front. She got tired and finished second beaten a neck at 5.5 furlongs so the 6 furlongs won’t be a plus for her. She hopes for a lone lead today.

3 Kenna Is Spicy has a good late kick. She’s a runner who should benefit if the pace melts down. She closed from well out of it on debut and closed into second last out. She’s a good price to include underneath.

Others to watch: 8 Streusel who is a second time starter from the cold Jedd Josephson barn. She closed into third behind Sassy and Hot last out. The extra half furlong benefits her late kick. 9 Super Party exits a common race to our top pick. This horse wasn’t a factor however and drops in half the claiming tag. Interesting runner here as Tim McCanna has nice numbers with second timers.

Race 4: 5.5 Furlongs Tapeta $4,000 Claiming F & M 3 & up (5-8-7)

This race starts the mandatory payout of the Golden Pick 6. Pool should be around $2 million. There is a ton of early speed in this race with the 1 Sarah’s Smirk, 2 Lydia O Lydia, and 3 Real Keeper. This should set up for some closers as the speed could tire each other out including a layoff runner (3). 

5 Waverly Way has been routing nearly exclusively. Today she cuts back from 1 mile to 5.5 furlongs. The early speed should benefit her allowing her to make a run turning for home. She’s been knocking on the door very close recently and appears to be primed to make a run today.

8 Secretly Paranoide who is also coming out of a route race. In fact she showed speed in that common route race finishing 5th. I expect her to sit mid field and try to make a rally in the stretch. Her races two and three back attract my attention.

7 Sinawava is 1 for 22 but she has a chance from the pace scenario stand point. Two back she closed from off the pace and missed by a length. She drops back to the 4 claimers as well. Not saying she’ll win but she has a big shot underneath at a price.

Race 5: 1 Mile & 1/16 Turf $20,000 Maiden Claiming 3 year olds & up (4-5-8)

Shippers highlight this race.

4 Cape Point is one of a few SoCal shippers coming in here. He not only ships up but is taking a drop in class. Dropping from open maidens to the maiden 20 and will also go two turns. He should appreciate the trip up North today.

5 El Borracho is an interesting runner here. His two races on turf at Turf Paradise catch the eye. He stalked the pace and rallied just missing two back and last out had trouble going wide. Lone try over this turf was sprinting and was third. If Turf Paradise form holds up he is worth a shot at 8/1.

8 Strugar is a 4 year old who was purchased for $900k as a yearling. Today he is in for 20. He hasn’t been competitive on dirt and will try turf today. Wonder if anyone will put in a claim on this gelding.

Other to consider: 7 Constitutionaffair is also trying turf for the first time. Also ships in from down South. He has a couple nice minor awards routing so he should like the distance. Question will be how he handles the turf.

Race 6: 5.5 Furlongs Tapeta $8,000 Claiming F & M 3 & up (4-2-3)

This race appears to lack a ton of speed. Could be gate to wire winner here.

4 Diamondsnchampagne is a 7 time winner over this tapeta including 6 wins at today’s journey. She appears to be the quickest in this field. Even if there are others with speed it doesn’t seem like they will be able to keep up with her. Don’t expect her 5/2 morning line odds to hold up.

2 Jenpirestrikesback is a horse that I have been a fan of. She’s a lightly raced 5 year old with 2 wins and a second. She does her best running from off the pace which isn’t a plus here as there’s not much pace to chase. The plus is she does drop from starter 50s and she runs hard every time. Andy Mathis has a 26% win clip with runners off a 61-180 day layoff.

3 Ride Out The Storm is a daughter of Clubhouse Ride making her first start in nearly 6 months. She is dropping in class off the layoff and is also cutting back in distance. She will probably like going longer and this race could be a prep for something longer (perhaps on grass) where she has 2 wins.

Race 7: 1 Mile & 1/16 Turf $12,500 Claiming F & M 3 & up (9-7-2)

Good turf event here as many runners who have struggled on tapeta return to their favorable turf course.

9 Live It Well fits the category to the point. Over the winter she’s been forced to run over the tapeta and she hasn’t done well having hit the board once in 5 tries. She gets back to the footing she should like where she broke the maiden and finished a nose beaten second at today’s level. Frank Alvarado gets aboard offering a 6/1 price that looks nice.

7 Say It With Roses also returns to her favorite surface which is the turf. She broke her maiden against open company and then faced allowance company. She drops in for her lowest claiming price of 12.5 today and with her speed she could try to go gate to wire. There may be other speed to contest with her but her class should hold up. Second place finisher last out runs in the opener today so that could be a sign for how this horse does.

2 Odessa makes her second start of the year. She ran a good second last out off a 9 month break. She gets back on turf where she has a second place finish. She should get a good stalking trip to run at. Lethal combination of Juan Hernandez and Jonathan Wong.

Others to consider: 5 American Royalty gets back on turf. She has stalked the pace and rallied for multiple seconds at this condition. Her tapeta for could be misleading but if she returns to turf form she’s dangerous. 4 Moonshine Annie is 1 for 26 and hasn’t won in nearly three years. She gets back on turf and drops in class. She could be coming on late. 8 Rouge Bouquet returns to turf. She picks up the pieces late and could play a role underneath in the superfectas.

Race 8: 6 Furlongs Tapeta $12,500 Maiden Claiming 3 year old Fillies (2-3-5)

Some lightly raced 3 year olds kick off the late double.

2 Stand in Your Love cuts back from a route to a sprint. She should have the stamina edge here over the others. I think she could go gate to wire in here.Two back at this level she lost the lead in mid stretch. The negative though was a 47 second half mile time and she still couldn’t hold on.

3 Beautiful Babe is an interesting runner here. She debuted against state bred maidens and didn’t fire at 49/1. She then dropped in for 12.5 and rallied to finish 3rd at 6/5. Today her odds on the morning line is 6/1. Odds seem interesting for a runner with a big chance.

5 Why the Long Face is a debuting 3 year old for trainer Ron Ellis. He has good numbers with runners debuting and interesting to note this daughter was purchased for $50,000 as a 2 year old. This seems like a logical spot for her on debut.

Others to watch: 6 Spirit Lake missed by a neck at this level on debut. She closed from off the pace in a super slow race. Last out she didn’t fire at 5.5. Today you get a rider upgrade to Frank Alvarado. 8 Jazzy Einstein is a debuting daughter of Einstein. She’s had some steady works and is one to watch as trainer Isidro Tamayo tends to have more success with a race under a horse’s belt. 7 Breakfast Ball makes her second start today. She finished fourth on debut. Second and third place finishers run earlier on the card so that could be a sign of whether this horse has a shot or not. Tim McCanna strikes at 10% with second time maidens.

Race 9: 1 Mile Turf $12,500 Claiming 3 year olds & up (1-3-10)

Big competitive field of 10 to close out the program on turf.

1 Conquest Sabre Cat is a 7 time winner on turf. He has been running on tapeta over the winter but gets back to a surface he should like. This son of Kitten’s Joy is 3 for 5 including a third over the Golden Gate turf. I expect him to sit a stalking trip and save ground from the rail for Juan Hernandez.

3 Soberano is 0 for 11 on turf but he has faced tough competition down South. He is in for his lowest level claiming tag and will probably be coming from well out of it. Hope Julien Couton is able to stay out of traffic coming for home.

10 Carolina Island returns to a surface he favors more here. He has 3 wins, 2 seconds, and a third in 14 tries over the grass. Kent Desormeaux gets the call on this gelding. He does have an outside post but look for Desormeaux to save ground early and make his run late.

Others to consider: 4 Eldritch has been steadily dropping in class with each try on tapeta. He returns to turf today where he does have two wins. Finished fourth in a common race to Soberano and could be seen coming on late. 9 Gain Ground is a horse that has a shot to run well underneath at a price. He’s back on turf and should sit a stalking trip. He hasn’t won here in 4 tries but does have two thirds.

Best Bet: Race 6 Diamondsnchampagne 5/2

Price Play: Race 7 Live It Well 6/1

This should be a great racing program. Good luck to everybody playing the mandatory payout and remember the early first post of 12:15 tomorrow. Good luck!

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