We get ready for another week of racing in the Bay Area. 7 races today with hopes of another good week of racing. The jackpot pick 6 carryover has gone up to $315,000 without a single winning ticket in nearly a month and a half. Hot jockeys recently include Catalino Martinez who went 5 for 16. Trainer wise Ed Moger Jr went 4 for 12. On the cold side jockey Cristobal Herrera hasn’t found the winner circle in his last 11 mounts. Tim McCanna and Clifford Delima both are 0 for their last 13. Our picks all finished in the money just a lot of second and thirds last week. Hope to reverse that trend this week. Nice Thursday card once again with a couple of races with bigger field sizes for a Thursday.
92 race selections – 28 top pick winners (30%), 61 top picks in the money (66%)
Here are my thoughts:
Race 1: 5 Furlongs $3,200 Claiming F & M 4 & up (1-2-4)
1 She’s in Luck will be dropping in class from beaten 6250 claimers to this 3200 condition. Also will shorten up from 6 furlongs to the 5 furlong distance today. I expect she will be sent from the inside post and will try to hold on in the stretch.
2 Naomi Fraley will be making her first start off a near 15 month break. She’s actually a half sibling to the horse drawn to her inside. She ran two good races down South prior to being sidelined. If she runs those races she will win. Has three steady works over the track and she should have a say since this race is only 5 furlongs.
4 Smokinhotredhead is another runner making her first start off a 5 month break. She was last seen winning at Ferndale in an n2L condition. Cutback might be a little short for a runner who likes running late similar to 3 Morning Dove.
Race 2: 6 Furlongs $12,500 Claiming F & M 4 & up (3-6-1)
3 Bounty of Gold takes a class drop from starter allowance company bag into claiming company. She has been close the last two tries and the class drop should make a difference. I expect her to sit just off the leaders and go by in the stretch.
6 Unchaining Melody has finished third and second in two tries at this level. She’s a mare who does her best running late. She hopes for a hot pace up front to run at. Third time at this level and condition could improve her another step.
1 Fuega also drops from starter allowance into claiming company. She is also taking the blinkers off. She also will rate and hope to run into a hot pace. She has only hit the board once in five tries over this tapeta.
Other to consider: 2 Miss Lucky Lager is one of the two speeds on paper. She shows speed but often gets tired in the stretch. If she breaks well and gets an easy lead and relaxes she could go gate to wire however there appears to be another pace contender to challenge.
Race 3: 5.5 Furlongs $6,250 Claiming 3 year old Fillies (2-4-6)
2 Princess Rio has run two really good races since returning from the route races. She will sit off the pace and make a run in the stretch. She got up in time two back at 9/1 to break her maiden. She then went against winners for the first time and rallied into third. An additional class drop gives this filly a big chance.
4 Perfect Sale is a perfect 2 for 2. She broke the maiden sprinting 5 furlongs for maiden 8 an won from off the pace. She went a route of ground last time for the 6250 claiming tag and went on determinedly. She cuts back to 5.5 furlongs today. In a race without a lot of speed we could see this horse on the front end hoping to repeat her last effort. Jack Steiner is 33% off the claim from his last 15.
6 Emma’s a Beast broke her maiden for 8 three back going wire to wire. She stepped up to the 12.5 condition her last couple tries and didn’t fire. She did come rally for second last out. It’s interesting to note her race two back she finished 5th behind our top pick. It’ll be interesting to see what jockey Juan Hernandez does whether to send or rate.
Other to consider: 3 Commissioness broke the maiden last out for 8 and faces winners for the first time. She gets Kent Desormeaux which is a plus considering his 19% win clip. Three back was second to our third pick. 1 Teaspoon of Pepper makes her first start in two months. She has routed most in the past. Maybe this could be a race for her to go longer in the future. Will be interested to keep an eye on her next out.
Race 4: 1 Mile $12,500 Maiden Claiming 3 year olds (2-9-5)
This is a race with a couple runners going from a sprint to a route (1 & 8) and some trying two turns once again. The 3 and 6 look to be the pace setters. The 3 ran second to a next out starter allowance winner but had an easy slow pace and still couldn’t finish thus I understand the 10/1.
2 Collusion Delusion takes a big drop from state bred maiden special weights to an open 12.5 maiden claimer. This is a huge class drop for this gelding. Another positive is he attracts leading jockey Juan Hernandez to ride. Horse could rate and try to go by runners in the stretch.
9 Totally Tiger a son of Smiling Tiger will ship up North for trainer Andrew Lerner. Similar to the top pick this runner is also taking a class drop. He faced state bred maiden 50s down South and ships up North for this 12.5 condition. He ran a good third last time out, making up ground. Has gone two turns just once against tougher maiden special weights on turf in the past. Could improve today on the class drop and facing newer faces.
5 Blues Rapper is a 10/1 price play to consider using underneath. He made up ground sprinting 6 furlongs at this level finishing fourth. Jockey Ricardo Gonzalez retains the mount here and could have this gelding relaxed on the backstretch for a late run. Trainer Bill McLean is 11% going from a sprint to a route from his last 27 runners.
Other to consider: 4 Matson has been a beaten favorite his last two tries for maiden 8. He steps up to the 12.5 condition today. Ignore that last race as he clipped heals when trying to rally in the stretch last out. This horse could be a value play at 5/1 on the m/L.
Race 5: 6 Furlongs $6,250 Claiming 4 year olds & up (3-1-5)
This race features a couple of early speed runners (2 & 4) who could set the pace up front. Look for some closers from off the pace. One runner (6) is making his first start off a layoff and had a work at Turf Paradise a couple weeks back. Might need a race.
3 Aotearoa is a 9 year old looking for lifetime win #9 and looking for two in a row. He won at a lower beaten 5 claimer race last out from off the pace and will look to repeat that effort against one level tougher today.
1 Stocked draws the inside post position and could benefit most from the pace setup. He does his best running late and is taking a slight drop in class. Price is right at 5/1 and he could run them down.
5 Bold Roman makes his second start off an 11 month layoff. Had a good streak of three wins in a row prior to being sidelined. If he returns to form he could run a good race. He also returns to the 6250 condition he won at last March.
Other to consider: 7 Malibu Alex is one of the classier runners in this field. He has run in the higher claiming and allowance races in the past including a stake race. He has steadily dropped in class his last couple tries going from 40 to 25 to 16 and today he drops to the lowest claiming tag hoping to find the winner circle.
Race 6: 1 Mile & 1/16 Starter Allowance $50,000 3 year olds (3-5-1)
This is a good group of starter allowance runners in here.
3 Fort McHenry will be our top pick here. He was originally a $1.1 million purchase. He exits the San Felipe run down South. He was simply outclassed that day running into runners like Authentic, Honor AP, and Storm the Court. Those runners are on the path for the Kentucky Derby. This race is a starter allowance race. This gelding’s lone win was over at Gulfstream Park West going wire to wire. Blinkers go back on for this gelding. Only question will be the tapeta surface.
5 Active Pass will be making his second start around two turns. He was a good second last out getting beat by a common foe in this event. This horse will benefit if the pace melts down. Juan Hernandez retains the mount. The extra 1/16 could allow this horse to keep closing.
1 Bottle of Smoke will look for three wins in a row. The price won’t be what this horse went off at in the past. He will rate and look to go by in the stretch. Will this horse bounce from those two stellar wins is the question.
Other to consider: 4 Mahi Mahi makes his first start off the claim. This horse will be testing the waters at this starter allowance condition. 2 Megameister may have somebody to battle with up front today and thus might not go wire to wire. Beaten by a couple common foes here. 6 Enos Slaughter will have a lot of ground to make up in a race where he looks overmatched.
Race 7: 5 Furlongs $8,000 Maiden Claiming 3 year old Fillies (2-10-3)
2 Proud to Shoyu will be our top pick to close out the card. She cuts back half a furlong to 5 furlongs. She’s gone off a big odds in her first two tries but displayed potential last time missing by just a length plus. I’m hoping the distance won’t be an issue for this filly. Hoping we get 5/1 at post time.
10 Sizzling Grace drops in class after two tries against maiden 25 company. She drops to nearly the bottom and cuts back in distance. She draws an outside post but I think the class relief could be a difference. She should sit in the second flight just off the leaders looking to pounce around the turn.
3 Coach’s Valentine ran well on debut rallying and just missed by a neck. Last out she drew the rail and brushed out of the gate. Hoping the draw near the middle of the field can allow her to duplicate her run on debut.
Others to consider: 5 Tiz the Standard is an 11 time maiden who has run second or third six times. She likes to pick up the pieces late. Maybe 12th time is the charm. 8 Eight O Five showed speed last time and tired in the stretch. Nobody is faster out of the gate but others might try to pressure her to keep going. Beatable favorite at 5/2.
Best Bet: Race 6 Fort McHenry 5/2
Price Play: Race 7 Proud to Shoyu 5/1
Good luck and stay healthy!