Race 1
SOUL PRODIGY (4) looks to be the horse to beat in the opener. He was second in a similar race in his debut, then flopped against tougher on the turf. The return to a competitive level and now in his third lifetime start should get him home versus an average field. MR. ARTISTIC (2) finished behind the top pick in his debut, but ran third in a similar race last out. Solid connections and continued improvement offer hope for him in a spot like this. ROUSING SLAMMER (5) will be making his fifth lifetime start while running at four tracks. He finished ahead of ‘ARTISTIC in his last race, but also had the benefit of more experience. An improved effort could put him in the winners circle.
Picks: 4-2-5
Race 2
ONE EYED ROBIN (4) finished behind two of these in his most recent start, but looks to turn the tables with a cleaner start. First off the claim for Jonathan Wong is always a good angle, and he looks to be able to track his stablemate SHARK CAT around for a much cleaner trip today. He will be spotting weight to some of his rivals, but he deserves the top billing here. TIZ EMMA (3) has to be respected off of two consecutive wins. He projects to get a nice tracking trip but will need to get the jump on ‘ROBIN given the post disadvantage. LINFIELD (1) has been scuffling over his past three efforts, but gets a significant class drop today. His effort four starts back in SoCal would play very well against this group, but it feels hard to trust him for a big effort today, when he has been a non-factor in so many of his lifetime starts.
Picks: 4-3-1
Race 3
This race is littered with horses who’ve hit the board for similar conditions and tags as this contest today. Let’s give MISS GEORGIE GAL (8) the nod in this mess of a race. She returns second off an eight month layoff; her first race off the layoff was down south, so the conditions obviously felt she still has some talent. However, she’s a 5-year-old with five career starts. Tread lightly. BROCARD (7) makes sense here as she ran well in her debut and just missed, followed by a flop in a step-up in class and a surface change in a race to toss. Jockey has been cold, however. At a price, how about I’M SO ADORABLE (9)? She made three starts in SoCal with no real impact, then ventured north and just missed against slightly weaker. She gets a big jockey upgrade today and certainly has the right to improve.
Picks: 8-7-9
Race 4
In a race with plenty of cheap speed, let’s try and see who gets the best trip here. A tactical trip is likely best with first run over the fading leaders, and SOUND JUDGMENT (5) checks all the boxes there. He’s been competitive at this level, this surface, and this jockey. He should get first run around the turn and you’ll have to catch him late to score. The same positives apply to SIERRA MELODY (3). He’s a tactical sort, if perhaps a bit cheap. He should also appreciate the cutback in distance here and has every right to hit. The obvious horse for this date and year is ELECTORAL (4). It’s hard to overlook a horse who has won two of his last three, however, he’ll need a fast pace and a good trip to come from far back. He also loses the 7 pound apprentice allowance he has enjoyed in his three most recent starts, coincidentally, those are his best performances to date.
Picks: 5-4-3
Race 5
Bottom level maiden claimers greet the starter in the 5th race today, and as you can imagine, there’s not a lot of consistency amongst the group today. The horse with the most eligibility to improve is SEVENTH WAVE (9). He made his return after being away for over 2 years and made a credible effort, finishing a close-up third. He races for a high percentage barn and seems likely to improve on his return performance. NATHANSMIMSY (11) returns to the Bay Area after a failed stint in Texas. In his one local race, he ran a well-supported second at a higher level. He enters the top barn for the circuit and gets a talented rider as well. Post is a concern obviously, but he certainly is eligible to throw a big effort here. Many of the others have essentially taken turns beating up on each other, so how about taking a stab at the SoCal invader NEWELL (3)? He hasn’t done much to warrant any support at the windows lately, but he shows up for a high percentage barn, attracts a high percentage rider, and takes the shades back off. He’s sported some sharp morning activity, so perhaps the scenery change will wake him up for the minor upset here.
Picks: 9-11-3
Race 6
In the feature, let’s take a stand against two of the likely betting favorites and get a mild price here. AMERICAN FARMER (7) has closing ability and has competed well on this course, but has yet to face older horses. It took him five starts to break his maiden, so even though he’s a local minor stakes winner, there’s too many questions to endorse on the front end. GIVE ME THE LUTE (4) has been sparkling while sprinting, but this race will take him around two turns and his routing efforts previously were last year. They weren’t bad efforts by any means, but this seems like somewhat of an awkward twist to enter him here, considering they shipped him south for a sprint stake three weeks ago. For the win end, let’s try and get BUILDER (2) home first. It’s rare to see a 5-year-old get claimed for $62,500 on this circuit, so the connections must feel there’s some upside still left in this guy. He carries a tactical style of pace and can certainly improve first off the claim for long-time NorCal trainer Moger.
Picks: 2-4-7
Race 7
Interesting maiden race for two-year-olds. FROST WARNING (1) is by Frosted, and this may be one of the only one of his progeny in the circuit. Given the tough rail draw and lack of sprint winners, I’ll lean elsewhere. The horses that have prior racing experience don’t really offer much to look towards in this spot. ENDLESS SUNSET (8) is trained by Mike McCarthy, and he doesn’t seem to ship north with a horse that doesn’t have a big shot. He’s by Violence, and he’s got some solid drills under his belt. Playing a chalky first timer doesn’t generally pay dividends, but he has reasons for confidence. TWICE THE PRICE (4) is also by Violence and sports good local works – he certainly offers hope, but he also has a cold trainer and a jockey whose stats may have been somewhat inflated due to being an apprentice. He’s lost that weight break recently. ROCKTILLYOUDROP (3) is another firster who gets Kyle Frey first call. Two gate drills at most recent are somewhat disturbing, but he may be live. SMOKE STACK (7) didn’t run much in his debut and couldn’t close into a hot pace, but perhaps the race under his belt will help give him an education for this outing. Plenty of ways to go in this race.
Picks: 8-4-7-3
Race 8
Two solid, tactical runners rise to the top here. ARCH PRINCE (5) and PREMIUM FOREST (9) look to be the best options here, and the nod goes to ‘FOREST. He is a 14-time winner and should be even sharper after coming back from a freshening in his last effort. He will need to work out a decent trip starting from the far outside, but you can do far worse in this spot than a horse who loves to win races. ‘PRINCE also should be sharper today, but his comeback effort was much less impressive than the one by ‘FOREST. This is the lowest level he’ll have been available for in over a year, so perhaps some class relief will get this six-year-old to snap alive. At a price, I’m eager to see what HECK YEAH (6) can do. He’s got plenty of back class, but admittedly, he hasn’t showed much in his last five starts. Having said that, he’s third off the layoff and has two sprints under his belt for a shift to routing, so perhaps there are reasons for optimism.
Picks: 9-5-6
Race 9
In the nightcap, let’s go with IN OUR A (9) to win at a price. He won his debut at a huge number and promptly went on the shelf for 20 months. He returns gelded but keeping the same rider who won on him in that debut, and he has plenty of sharp drills for the return. Class drop is concerning, but there’s likely little risk in him being claimed as a late 4-year-old after this big layoff. Big shot at a price. ESKIMO ROSES (2) takes a class drop and a move up north. Adds the shades and finds a good spot to wake up here. AUTISM IMPACT (3) has been running in mixed breed races at Los Alamitos, but he attracted one of the top jockeys in the colony there and ran well there. His speed should be sharpened enough to run well here and perhaps hit the board at a price.
Picks: 9-2-3