Race 1 – 12:45pm (PST) 4yr old and up Clm 3200n2y 5-1/2 furlongs All-Weather (Selections: 5-4)
General Comments: Rail horse Lil’ Chieftain will draw a lot of attention with Desourmeaux and the sharp Feb 28 workout, but was dull last out and has been unplaced since 2018. We’ll take a firm stand against here.
Top Choice: (5) Lu Cat is the clear speed of this heat and since we’re only going 5-1/2 furlongs that is a lethal combination. He chased a rather fast pace last out against a better bunch. He’ll be able to run as he pleases here. Jockey change back to Catalino Martinez who rode this guy to both of his wins. Very strong choice.
Backup: (4) Zippy Groom had no chance last out when getting behind 10 lengths on a rather slow pace. That was some closing kick he showed essentially coming home in a sub 23 second last quarter mile. If by chance Lu Cat gets some pace pressure this guy could roll over the top. Note races two and three back where he won and missed by a nose at this level. Solid chance at good odds.
Race 2 – 1:15pm (PST) 4yr olds and up Clm 4000n2L 5-1/2 furlongs All-Weather (Selections: 6-1)
General Comments: Poor field of non-winners of two line up here. This bunch is a combined 6 wins from 110 starts. None of these guys seems to like winning. Tough race.
Top Choice: (6) Baby You Got It had the lead a couple of times in mid stretch (Jan 24 and Nov 8), but failed to sustain the lead. He beat Carters Blue two back. He’ll find a good spot just outside and behind the speed. Like that Amador sticks with him for a third race. Best of a weak bunch.
Backup: (1) Carters Blue may be a ‘pack’ animal. He sports a 1 win to 11 placings ratio and even though he beat most of this group by at least 4 lengths last time I would shudder if anyone singled or bet heavily to win. Could be the best horse, but may not have a desire to be the lead dog.
Race 3 – 1:45pm (PST) 4yr old and up Clm 4000b 1 mile All-Weather (Selections: 1-2)
General Comments: Race features a trio of powerful closers: On the Key, Unusually Green and Reno Johnny. This $4000 heat looks loaded to me. Would not be surprised to see multiple claims dropped. Elevate was a voided claim on 12/28 due to unsoundness.
Top Choice: (1) Candy’s Martini goes first off the claim for Wong (a 30% win angle) after winning two of his last three. He barely qualifies for the conditions (non-winner of a $4000+ race since Dec 15th) having won on Dec 5th. Should find a good spot up close to the likely leader (50-1 Flatter Cat). Live.
Backup: (2) On the Key can get the job done regardless of a pace set up. He gets a huge jockey change with Hernandez. Always seems to get a piece of the pie (lifetime 56% in the money). Would not leave him out of consideration on the win end.
Race 4 – 2:15pm (PST) 3yr olds MdnSpWt (CA Bred or Sired) 1-1/16 miles All-Weather (Selections: 6-1)
General Comments: Four of these guys exit that last MSW heat at a mile and were only separated by 3-1/4 lengths (Gallant Warren, El Centenario, Just Like Fred and Collusion Delusion).
Top Choice: (6) Canyon Crest one of the new faces to this bunch only missed second place last out by 2-1/2 lengths after the winner KP All Systems Go won off by 6. Should handle the tapeta and draws a nice outside post here. Cuts back in distance when most are stretching out another 1/16. Live at a short price.
Backup: (1) Gallant Warren should improve off that last route effort. All of the dam’s previous runners were route horses and she herself was a 3x winner going longer. Sire Gallant Son was mostly a sprinter during his career, but did win the 2010 Inglewood (Gr 3) going 1-1/16 miles. Good chance at good odds.
Race 5 – 2:45pm (PST) 4yr old and up F&M Clm 16000 5-1/2 furlongs All-Weather (Selections: 6-4)
General Comments: This race is loaded with speed. Premiere Lady and Impecunious have been merciless early and there are a host of pace pressers as well: Kelly, I Love Romance and Lucky Christiana. Looking for a closing type.
Top Choice: (6) Crown Kitten is a 10x winner, but you’d never know it if you look at her past odds. She has a great closing kick and was caught in traffic late last time after moving stoutly into the race at the top of the stretch. Gomez should be able to get her in the clear this time.
Backup: (4) Namorita comes here fresh after 6 months off. Has a steady, fast work tab. She also has a strong closing kick. The table will set up perfectly for her and Crown Kitten. Maybe only a matter of who gets the best trip. Another strong chance.
Race 6 – 3:15pm (PST) 3yr old fillies Mcl 8000 1 mile All-Weather (Selections: 9-2)
General Comments: Competitive bunch of 9 fillies going a mile here, kicks off the late pick 5 sequence.
Top Choice: (9) Autism’s Quest for Johnny Taboada and Sam Calvario look extra tough here. She beat most of these home last out when leading at the stretch call, but tiring late. Nice March 1st workout in tow and it looks like her turn to graduate today.
Backup: (2) Musketier Waltz gets a big jockey change to Krigger and is bred for this type of distance. Runner up two races back. Will save ground from this post and come late with a run. Live.
Race 7 – 3:45pm (PST) 4yr old and up F&M Clm 20000n2x 1 mile All-Weather (Selections: 1-6)
General Comments: Hard to see a different result from the Feb 14th dash at this level where Crazy Sexy Munny beat Lady Phyllis. Feels like a replay of that race will occur here at the slightly shorter distance.
Top Choice: (1) Crazy Sexy Munny is an amazing 9 for 9 in the exacta (7 wins) on the tapeta. She has been on a roll as of late vaulting from the $4000 ranks to winning last out at this $20000 level. Out drove Lady Phyllis to the wire last time. As the saying goes when a filly gets good, they get really good.
Backup: (6) Lady Phyllis will try to turn the tables on the top choice after closing hard late last out. She definitely fits at his level with two straight placings. Could upset if the top choice fails.
Race 8 – 4:15pm (PST) 3yr olds AOC 40000n1x 1 mile All-Weather (Selections: 4-7)
General Comments: Excellent group of first allowance level three year olds line up here including four who exit the El Camino Real Derby (Final Final, Ajourneytofreedom, Mysterious Stones and Wine and Whisky). Should be a great betting race.
Top Choice: (4) Mysterious Stones was up with the pace in the El Camino Real Derby. He will really appreciate the shortened distance today. Note he led into the stretch four out of his last five and held on to win both times at a mile. Regular rider Antongeorgi only adds to the appeal. Great shot at a great price.
Backup: (7) Wine and Whisky was best of the bunch that met up in the El Camino Real Derby placing 4th in said race. He nearly missed two races back at a mile and sixteenth. Seems to like the distance game and is logical for a placing here.
Race 9 – 4:45pm (PST) 4yr old and up Clm 40000 6 furlongs All-Weather (Selections: 5-6)
General Comments: Interesting race from a pace perspective. Looks like a showdown for the early lead between Sunset Dragunn and Whatwasithinking.
Top Choice: (5) Whatwasithinking is the top choice despite the anticipated showdown. He draws outside of his rival and might just intimidate him to a stalking roll. On the other hand, should a duel ensue my money is on him to win outright. His pace numbers are off the charts (see two consecutive 44.2 half miles splits). Seems like a great claim and he loves to win (9/16). Our money lands here.
Backup: (6) Bear Chum ran out of his mind last out and should find a great stalking spot again from just outside the early leaders. I think his best game might be at the 5-1/2 furlong trip, but he should be competitive here and is definitely live for all placings.
Race 10 – 5:15pm (PST) 4yr old and up AOC 25000n1x 1 mile All-Weather (Selections: 6-2)
General Comments: What a race to close out all sequences for the day. Super competitive field of 10 first level allowance/$25000 claiming types. Race is loaded with speed and we see an upset here.
Top Choice: (6) Cimpl Man really needed that last race after nearly a year off. He drops and stretches out to a much more favorable distance. Blinkers go off and pace will set up beautifully for him. Looking for him to light the board up to close out the card.
Backup: (2) Tortosa comes down in class after facing 2nd level allowance types and stakes company for his last few. He’s also been gelded since we last saw him. Pace situation will be ideal for his style and he has fired fresh in the past (Apr 6th 2018). Could close out a monster exacta.
Top Choice Season Statistics:
73 selections – 25 wins (34.25%) $2.00 Win bet ROI $2.70 (+35%)