Golden Gate Fields Saturday January 18, 2020
Warren Wilson
Twitter: @HorseAnalystWW
Top Choice Season Statistics :
27 selections – 6 wins (22.2%) $2 Win bet ROI $1.73 (-$0.27)
Best Bet: Habobanero in Race 8.
Race 1 – 12:45pm (PST) 4yr old & up F&M Clm 3200n2y 5-1/2 furlongs All-Weather (Selections: 4-2 )
Top Choice: (4) Ninnavee likes to win races sporting a 12/49 lifetime win mark and she finds a good spot to make it 13 wins. Last out was beaten only ½ length while finishing ahead of Secret Paranoia and It Girl. Good stalking speed will position her right.
Backup: (2) D’s Two Thumbs Up will offer significant value for one who won at this level going 5 furlongs back in August. She’s got a couple of drills in prep for this and Ordonez has been know to fire with longer odds in the past.
Race 2 – 1:15pm (PST) 4yr old & up Clm 5000n2x 1-1/16 miles All-Weather (Selections: 5-2)
Top Choice: (5) Temple View has been a hot commodity at the claim box having won the last two in impressive style while changing hands each of his last three starts. Now back in the Wong barn and I expect his good form to keep going. Strong turn moves powering him to the front by the stretch call in his last two mean you won’t need to hold your breath.
Backup: . (2) Turnaround and D Wayne Baker trying to replicate the same formula that had him winning last out by 2-1/2 lengths. He came into that race off a 40 day break and comes in here off a 37 day break. Has good speed and proved he could rate if need be in a race without much pace.
Race 3 – 1:45pm (PST) 4yr old & up MdnSpWt 5-1/2 furlongs All-Weather (Selections: 1-4)
Top Choice: (1) Continental Wine is hard to look past here having just missed winning last out by a nose. Sports two sharp workouts in prep for this event and retains the blinkers after showing marked improvement last out. Strong chance to graduate.
Backup: (4) Inquisition has been a very inconsistent sort, but comes from the strongest female family of this bunch. Dam Top Notch Lady was a graded stakes winner in her day. Steadily working out for Ledzema and Gonzalez keeps riding. Not giving up on him yet.
Race 4 – 2:15pm (PST) 4yr old & up F&M Clm 6250 1 mile All-Weather (Selections: 6-2)
Top Choice: (6) Crazy Sexy Munny was claimed last out into a much better barn and finds a good spot here. Wright has historically scored at a 26% clip first after claim at GG. Filly won five races last year and looks to start 2020 right where she left off. Big chance here.
Backup: (2) War Moccasin has waited a long time between drinks, having not won since last February at SA. She ran a very good race last out vs tougher and is signalling she may be ready to take another drink in the winner’s circle soon.
Race 5 – 2:45pm (PST) 4yr old & up Str 4000 1 mile All-Weather (Selections: 5-3)
Top Choice: (5) Giant Mark once again charts to get a comfortable lead here and when he has he is virtually invincible having won 11/33 on the GG tapeta. Will be the chalk, which is not what we like, but can’t go past him.
Backup: (3) Mr. Q also loves the GG tapeta having scored 4x with his latest a career best. Been in the exacta each of the last 8 and figures to pickup the pieces once again.
Race 6 – 3:15pm (PST) 3yr old Filles MdnSpWt (S) 5-1/2 furlongs All-Weather (Selections: 1-4)
Top Choice: (1) Sadie Bluegrass looks primed at first asking here. The Steve Miyadi/Nick Alexander (owner) combo has scored 10/54 (18.5%) with first time starters at GG. This one is the first foal from a dam family that moves progeny up 11 speed figure points based on my system. Miyadi doesn’t typically work them fast so the steady, decent work tab seal our confidence. LIVE.
Backup: (4) Sure Shot Anna is another firster who looks ready to roll. Strong worktab for the Steve Sherman barn who is actually not that great with first time starters. Another with a strong dam family who moves progeny up 10 speed figure points and she is the first foal. Solid chance.
Race 7 – 3:45pm (PST) 4yr old & up Clm 12500n2L 5-1/2 furlongs All-Weather (Selections: 1-5)
Top Choice: (1) Stocked beat two of today’s foes last out (Grand Air, Ride Into the Sky) in what I’d call a key race since the winner Tap It Champ came back to win a first level allowance and Hot n’Famous (7th) came back to win a 5000n2x. He has good tactical speed to give Alvarado options and has been on a steady class rise since being claimed for 3200 back in October.
Backup: (5) Ride Into the Sky gets off the rail for this one while going second out for Trujillo who is very good with recent claims. He beat the top choice two back by a long neck and with the right trip could work out a winning trip.
Race 8 – 4:15pm (PST) 3yr old Fillies Str 50000 5-1/2 furlongs All-Weather (Selections: 5-6)
Top Choice: (5) Habobanero finds a much easier group today, as she has been keeping company with the best 3yr old fillies on the grounds. Cut back to sprinting makes a lot more sense and steady workouts in tow says she’s sound. Best bet of the day.
Backup: (6) Friend of Autism also cuts back to sprinting after lacking closing punch while going longer the last two. She is 2/3 when sprinting on the GG tapeta and Antongeorgi sticks with her. Should have a clean trip from this post.
Race 9 – 4:45pm (PST) 4yr old & up Mcl 8000 6 furlongs All-Weather (Selections: 4-9)
Top Choice: (4) Clifton Hollow makes his second career start after showing some interest late in his debut. This one’s dam Girls School is a full sibling to 2003 Gottstein Futurity (EmD) winner Schoolin You and this is her only foal to race. Love the sharp Jan 11th workout and the jockey switch to Gonzalez. Wright barn was 4/14 (28.6%) with 2nd start maiden claimers in 2019. Upset special.
Backup: (9) My Small World debuted on a rainy, windy day at 5 furlongs and managed to close over 4 lengths late, then stretched out to a route when forced 5 wide on the back stretch on Dec 29th. Cuts back to a sprint for Trujillo who historically hits (15.2%) with maiden claimers. Main stable jockey Gomez takes the mount, another positive. Chance to rock the tote at huge odds.