Fairgrounds Racing Analysis- Thursday Nov 29, 2018- By Spencer Luginbuhl

W%11%
ROI -69%

Race 1
5-3-2

#5 El Hombre: This son of El Corredor started in MSW but then has slowly been dropped down the class level. He is also switching back to dirt he ran a big 51 on a sloppy track on his debut and now faces state-bred company for the first time on the dirt. He is lightly raced with only five starts and many others in here have lost at the 5K level. The trainer is good off layoffs, and the work over the track was ok.

#3 From Now On: 15 stars is a little over the hill for me to take at a short price. He has already lost at a lower class level but the last time he was stretched out he missed by a nose, and it was one of his best Beyers. A third at this class level is a nice prep, and the Beyer wasn’t too far off what can win today

Race 2
5-3-4

#5 Fame Feather: Compared to my other contenders she loves the FG turf course as both her wins in her lifetime have come over today’s course. She also won an optional claimer for 30K and a good second at the 50K level with Beyers around the par for this level. She is coming out of a state-bred N2X race to open company today.

#3 Flashly: This lightly raced filly is out of the Australian sire Denman. She broke her maiden very nicely as a FTS in Chicago and then tried a listed stake at Saratoga. She was close on the pace and faded badly. Now she drops into an allowance but now is under the care of Brad Cox. Trainer Wayne Catalano is good, but cox is on a different level. Her works have been good she has a bullet two back she will probably be the favorite of this race I just like the horse for course angle a bit more than the trainer change.

Race 3
pass

Race 4
1A-6-5

#1A Blockbuster: Won on debut for the Mark Casse barn and then tried a G3 he ran off the board for that and now drops to a more suitable spot. His works at FG have been on point, and I feel that the trainer intent of putting this horse in graded stakes race second out tells me this horse is probably pretty good.

#6 Ship of the Line: Trainer Jack Sisterson is 11% on the year with limited starters, he is 19% with 2-year-olds with a huge 4$ROI. This one likes to show speed, and the jock who is off to a great start stays on and should be a reasonable price.

Race 5
pass

Race 6
7-10-1

Race 7
pass

Race 8
6-7-9

#6 Room To Finish: So this filly started for a tag they liked they liked he debut enough to move her up and got another second on the west coast and now ship to the midwest. She usually comes from far back, and there’s not a ton of speed signed on so she will have to be a bit closer today I love the workouts coming into this.

#7 Coexistence: This might be a seconditis type horse 3 second in 5 starts, but she has run four races above par for the level here today and should be pretty hard to stop.

Race 9
pass

YTD 2 MEETS
WAGERED 248
TOP PICK % 28-126=22%
W/L -(51.70) R.O.I. -(20.85%)

SARATOGA 2018 SUMMER MEET RESULTS
TOP PICKS WAGERED BASED ON 2$ WIN BETS
WAGERED 106
TOP PICK %= 10-55 18%
W/L=(-39.10) R.O.I. -37

BELMONT 2018 SPRING MEET RESULTS
TOP PICKS WAGERED BASED ON 2$ WIN BETS
WAGERED 142
TOP PICK %=18-71=25%
W/L=-(12.60) R.O.I -9%

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