Welcome back to the GenoG Challenge where its more like “Opponents owning GenoG Challenge”. Two efforts and two losses for myself but I’m back for redemption!!! Today I’m facing off against a guy by the name of Dan Helder. Good handicapper who in Oct2018 took down the Super High Five Jackpot at KEE for a cool $12,200 on a $12 ticket sooooo by the looks of it, I might be up against it today! Enough of that… lets get to my selections on this 9 race card from FG!!!!!
Race 1
Top Selection: #2 Guilty Kitty 9/5Alternate Selection: #7 Friend of Dubai 5/1
I hate to start everything off with the chalk but I do believe this one has the best chance to improve second time on the track and distance. Showed speed in debut, only to fade badly getting beat by 6 3/4 lengths that day against MdnClm20 that day. Gets the drop in class, Steve added a work on 1/20 to keep this one fresh (although slow) and I think the post is the biggest draw for this one. Although a short price, should be extremely tough to beat in this spot.
Race 2
Top Selection: #9 Mizzen Air 20/1Alternate Selection: #7 Little Snip 15/1
Look at this race and tell me where the speed will be coming from? To me, in my opinion, there are two and only two speed horses in this race and those are my top two selections. You can argue that coming from the 5.5f sprint the 7 might have more early foot but I think the consistency is there with the 9 that leaves me no question we could be walking the dog out here. Mizzen Air finished strongly last out only beaten 2 3/4 while finished 3rd BUT dueled the entire way and was still able to run on and finish out nicely. ShaunB jumps on today and with the outside post, he has 1 choice and that’s going to the front. Watch out at a BIG BIG number!!!!
Race 3
Top Selection: #1 Spun Line 9/2Alternate Selection: #3 Michel It’s Autum 4/1
I think debut for the rail horse is just a complete toss for me. Routing plus sloppy main track, nothing really seemed to click with this one as she was bet all the way down to 5/2 as they went into the gate. Now this filly will get the fast track and has been staying active in the AM which is what I like to see after a lackluster debut. 2 works, 1/14 4f :48 and 1/20 4f :49.1. I don’t think you’ll ever get anything close to 9/2 but it’ll be our top selection.
Race 4
Top Selection: #4 Throwacross 7/2Alternate Selection: #3 Well’s Gold 10/1
Ugh… not another chalk. If I’m being honest, when you look at the impressive run on 3/23/18 over this course going 7.5f, it’s hard to really select anybody else in here. The 87 speed figure can only be touched/surpassed by the favorite (#10 Remembermis) and that horse will have one heck of a time getting the job done today parked way out there with no early speed whatsoever. Give me Flo and Edward Johnston who is 32% first off the claim and 20% in turf starters.
Race 5
Top Selection: #5 Sunrise Hawk 9/2Alternate Selection: #6 Neverquitdreaming 10/1
One can only hope this isn’t a speed biased today because our top choice will be the dead closer in here. I like Murrill getting the nod today who really knows this track well and times runs as good as anybody at this track. One could say that the 84 speed figure shown last out is somewhat of an “outlier” but I think its more then repeatable and IF repeated, should be plenty to beat this weak field. Jeansonne is 25% first off claim, and has had 2 winners in 21 starts this meet. Choice!
Race 6
Top Selection: #4 Tudox Lifting Off 5/1Alternate Selection: #1 Beach Waltz 7/2
Really trying to beat the massive dropper on the rail here who should be a HEAVY HEAVY favorite. I honestly think 5.5f is just too short. Whether it was just to get this one back to the track, whether it was the only race available that this filly fit, we can come up with all kinds of reasons/excuses. Now back to going longer, this one has been known to chase speed as fast as :22 and change first 1/4 miles and that early tactical speed will be very very helpful here getting a good trip sitting right behind the pace setters. I wouldn’t be surprised if this one goes chilly on the board with all the directions you can go in. NOTE: Amoss/Graham have won 22% of their 41 runners when they’ve teamed up over last 60 days.
Race 7
Top Selection: #1 Aces High 5/1Alternate Selection: #3 Shining Knight 3/1
This combo of Adam Beschizza and Joe Sharp are just really tough to beat when they have live runners and that’s what we have here. First of all, the rail is winning at a nice 16% clip over this distance this meet, second that with Sharp being 22% first off claim and did I mention when jock/trainer hook up they have been successful? Try 16% winners over the last 60 days. This horse has speed drawn inside which I love over this track and shouldn’t have a ton of company. Beschizza should be able to sit on him and have plenty coming for home. Pick.
Race 8
Top Selection: #8 Lauriano 20/1Alternate Selection: #6 Real News 5/1
Maybe this is where we can sneak one in at a monster price. The connections first out put him in for 30 going 6f on the dirt. New owner realized this was a chance to pick up a runner that really should be on the grass. Dam has 5 winners from 6 starters with 1 turf winner, trainer is 25% first off claim, high success rate in small barn and the move from Mcl30 up to this MSW seems like a tall order. The love the fact this one showed speed first out and would expect Chantal to send here and see if we can’t hang on over the small cut back and an INSANE number!!!!!
Race 9
Top Selection: #1 Oma Lee 6/1Alternate Selection: #6 Bankers Honour 5/1
To end this 9 race card its an angle that we played earlier and that’s speed drawn on the rail. Its had such a high success rate and with this one, the 2step drop in class is noteworthy and it helps that trainer is 31% when he has horses do that. Graham gets the call today who has had a wonderful meet and ESPECIALLY on horses with speed. 2nd off the layoff should mean this one is in for a top performance today. Look for Graham to send this one to the front and never look back.
I wish everybody the best of luck today if you are playing FG!!! If perhaps you all want some Pick4 insight or other horses that I’ll be using in the sequences make sure to @ me on Twitter @DaVilleKY32. Thanks everybody for reading and lets cash some tickets (and for me, save $25)
Thanks, Geno, for the opportunity for a little friendly competition. Here we go!
Race 1:
Top Selection: SinginginthewindBackup: Guilty Kitty
Quickly landed on first time starter, Singinginthewind, with the remainder of the field not offering much on paper. Steering clear of the Asmussen runner at the likely 4/5 post time odds, even though Guilty Kitty is the most likely winner. I’ll be using those two to kick off horizontal wagers.
Race 2:
Top Selection: Mizzen AirBackup: Little Snip
I’ve never been more certain of a ML mistake/misprint, as Havinfunyet must have been meant for the 7/5 ML. 7 wins in 10 tries at Fair Grounds, and a mile specialist with 7 wins and 3 seconds from 12 tries. Need to go elsewhere for wagering purposes though and landed on the 9, Mizzen Air, as my top selection and 7 a close 2nd. She should be on or near the lead without a lot of speed in the race and May take it gate to wire. I may get cute and key Havinfunyet with the 7 and 9 in the exacta. And will spin a few supers with 7 and 9 filling two of the top four spots.
Race 3:
Top Selection: Another MimosaBackup: Spun Line
Feels like a repeat of race 1. I’ll take, Another Mimosa, the 2nd time starter with room for improvement trying dirt for the first time. The other 2nd time runner has high profile connections with Cox and Geroux, and is almost certainly going off as the heavy favorite with solid recent works. The rest of the runners are what they are…not very good.
Race 4:
Top Selection: RemembermisBackup: Throwacross
Remembermis will be my top pick in race 4. No recent turf starts to lean on, but the all-weather surface form should translate well back to turf here. I also think the pace may be fairly fast, which should set up nicely for the 10.
Race 5:
Top Selection: NetelaBackup: Miracle Mountain
The same reasons I selected the 10 in the 4th are the reasons I like the 3 over the 1 in the 5th. Recent dirt mile form at FG is strong for the 3 while the 1 will attempt to move all-weather and turf form to the dirt.
Race 6:
Top Selection: CannyBackup: Cubs Win
I think this one comes down to the 3, 5 and 9 exiting a Dec. 1st key race where they were your trifecta horses. The key race has produced 2 additional next out winners and I think these three should fill 3 of the 4 superfecta holes with similar performances. I’ll look to key all other runners w/ these three and for the 3 to be on top with the 2nd run post lengthy layoff.
Race 7:
Top Selection: Twist OffBackup: Pear Lemonade
Hope we get anything close to 12/1 on Twist Off, my top pick. This one looks sneaky good and has a ton of late speed if the inside horses knock heads early. Could easily see an exacta with 6 and 8 flying late. 6 will be my backup top choice if 8 were to scratch.
Race 8:
Top Selection: Real NewsBackup: Just Might
I’ll lean on workouts and trainer stats to side with the 6, Real News, in the 8th. Stall does well first out on turf and this young equine athlete has put in 3 solid consecutive works. It also doesn’t hurt that the pedigree is heavy turf either. However, this race ultimately looks pretty open if the monster steps that Just Might has taken over the past three races don’t hold true to a return to turf.
Race 9:
Top Selection: KarslynBackup: Oma Lee
Karslyn will be my top choice in the finale, hard to ignore Karl Broberg at this level at a generous 6/1 ML. Although we’re not at Delta Downs, I doubt we get half of that ML at post time. Not much else I like here, Karslyn should be close to the lead early and have enough closing kick to be there for the photo…now just hoping I’m ahead enough vs Gene to not have to sweat it out!