Fair Grounds Racing Analysis — Thursday, January 10, 2019, by Gene Grieshaber/ Dennis Trusty picks are below Gene’s

Welcome to the first ever GenoG challenge!! I posted on Twitter that I challenge anybody who thinks they an out cap me in a single days worth of action, I’ll give them $25 by doing so! First up is Dennis. I really like Dennis, I call him a friend of mine BUT… today is just not that day to be friends. Money is on the line pal!!! Let’s not waste anymore time and let’s get to my selections:

Race 1
Top Selection: #6 Foreign Connection 3/1
Alternate Selection: #4 Marcia Rose 6/1
I really like #6 Foreign Connection is this spot here for Joe Sharp and Adam Beschizza. A very well spotted first time starter who has a slew of works on the tab for a trainer that is 20% with MdnClmers, 15% in Debuts and when Beschizza aboard winning 21% of the time over the last 60 days which includes a run of 7 wins in 28 tries over the last 14 days. Although, the chalk, this should be in an easy winner to get the day started!!

Race 2
Top Selection: #8 Tough Kicks 4/1
Alternate Selection: #2 Sandstorm 5/1
First off the layoff, this horse clips heels and was pulled up. It’s nice to see that trainer Jamie Pastor brings this one back nearly 30 days later, showing no signs of injury. I really like the previous runs over this surface and distance, including 86,82,81’s back Jan ’18 and Dec ’17 which would be more then enough to not only challenge for the win but perhaps plenty good to get the job done today. 2nd off layoff and we got a sneaky good work on 1/4 4f :48.4… I like what I see here.

Race 3
Top Selection: #2 Citali 6/1
Alternate Selection: #4 Flatter the Queen 6/1
Classic jail move here. Connections purchased this one last out on Dec29 and now moves him up from 5k to 7500 where he missed by a neck 2 back over this track and distance. Speaking of track and distance, this horse is 2-0-1-0 at FG, 16-3-3-2 at this distance so neither should be an issue. On top of all that, a couple of stats really stand out… how about Sophie Doyle winning 5 of last 9 races for Eduardo Rodriguez with +$5.20 ROI, trainer Rodriguez is also 21% first off claim. 3rd off the layoff, I think pace set up is perfect and should be really really tough in here at a decent price!

Race 4
Top Selection: #9 Musical Man 3/1
Alternate Selection: #1 History Earned 8/1
A great spot for Maker/Geroux to team up here with this one. Switching back to the surface that I believe this one prefers, you can see all the trouble this one had two back at same level and distance and still ran 3rd that day although beaten a wide 12 length margin. A clean trip from the outside post with a horse that doesn’t tend to show a ton of speed shouldn’t be an issue whatsoever. Best horse, best connection combo scores at a short price.

Race 5
Top Selection: #7 Bye Bye Shanghai 8/1
Alternate Selection: #5 Foldover 12/1
I really like a couple of nice prices in here but my top selection is going to go to the Joseph Foster runner ridden by Murrill. Its hard to argue looking back at the three runs over the turf during maiden campaign that this one didn’t relish that surface. He had a pair of 3rd place finishes and a 4th against similar, if not better then what he will face in here. I love the fact that Foster was able to lure Murrill over to ride today. If you question “class” let me just remind you that this runner, ridden by Pompell, last out was 2.2/1 against this same group last out on dirt. I think the switch, rider change to a top jock, look out!!!

Race 6
Top Selection: #5 Wings Up 7/2
Alternate Selection: #4 Afleet Roger 6/1
Love this angle here thanks to my man @ScatDaddyBrad on Twitter who I spoke to about the run last out for this one at CD. That day NOBODY was making up ground down the lane besides this one. When you watch the race back he was out running horses, he wasn’t passing tired ones. The fact he makes up ground, ran a faster last 1/2 mile then the winner is something that is going to be really hard to beat in here. Softer field, Casse brings in Santana, I expect this horse to be closer to the pace today and crush them as they turn for home!!!

Race 7
Top Selection: #3 Rock N Sake 8/1
Alternate Selection: #5 Halfflatt 6/1
Horse for course in here who is 14-4-5-0 at FG on the turf and 12-2-6-1 at this distance lifetime. Finds a reasonable spot here after running a really nice 2nd off the layoff in the slop on 12/27. Gets back to the grass today, puts ShaunB back up to ride. This one will be really really tough in here at a nice price on the board!!

Race 8
Top Selection: #1 Wonder Run 4/1
Alternate Selection: #6 My Friend Flavin 5/2
I love this angle here with the rail runner who has speed, was up against the wrong biased in last two starts and now gets perfect ground, perfect post and should get a fairly easy lead from the inside. ShaunB looking to score a double for me towards the end of the card here. This one likes the FG surface being 6-1-2-1 and the distance being the most prominent stat at 11-3-3-2. Trainer Flint is 22% 3rd off the layoff, rail winning at 21% clip in these spots and did we mention that ShaunB is ON FIRE the last 7 days (7-4-1-0)?

Race 9
Top Selection: #1 Chip Leader 7/2
Alternate Selection: #7 Italian Charm 4/1
This runner is 7-4-1-1 at FG on the turf, 6-5-1-0 at the distance. Count me in!!! On top of that, this one has consistent speed figures that just tower over the others in here including a 96 over this track/distance on 1/5/18 beating AOC80k runners by 2.5 with Graham aboard, who’s aboard today. 2nd off the layoff, this one will be sent to the front, we can only hope he hangs on as they move down the lane!!!

Race 10
Top Selection: #2 Cameron Rules 12/1
Alternate Selection: #10 Bank On Andy 9/2
I don’t think my top selection in here has really been able to showcase the talent he has at this level due to some really unlucky race riding over the past 2 races off the layoff. Now 3rd off the layoff, Mouton gets Murrill to jump on for the first time, I think we could see a really big improvement from this one in here who isn’t facing a whole lot to write home about. Combine that with the fact that this one has worked twice since being off since 11/29, I think we can more then assume a huge step forward is in line. Will it be enough? We will see.

I wish Dennis the very best of luck and if perhaps anybody else reading this is interested in trying to beat me for a free $25, reach out to The Daily Gallop or myself @DaVilleKY32 and we will set up a race day when I cover Oaklawn Park for the Gallop. I hope everybody has a wonderful day and best of luck if you are playing this Thursday from the Fairgrounds!!!

Thank you, Gene, for giving me the opportunity to whip your butt in this contest haha best of luck hope we come up with 10 winners and it’s a draw Btw checked trusty google weather looks like a perfect day of racing in N’awlins mid 50s high 40s sunny

Race 1 My top choice is the 1 Say Yes Again it would have been the 6 but because when he worked that 4 out of 63 and it took him soooo long to get back to the track i have to go with the most logical class dropper but if he’s scratched. My 2nd choice is the 6 Foreign Connection because of what i said up top and my 3rd choice is the 4 Marcia Rose im not gonna lie if they both scratch i gave up on this race outside of the 1 and 6 idk how this race can go and i dont want to just say no pick it was either Mitchell Murrill or Jack Gilligan and im going to go with Mitchell Murrill by a slim margin

So again, my selections 1-6-4

Race 2 Top pick number 8 Tough Kicks cheaper, forgiving the last race where she clipped heels because Colby is getting back on, she has by far the best turf record in the race with 22-7-6-2. 2nd choice the 2 Sandstorm why is she not my top choice well class doesn’t matter too much at Evangeline and since there is some speed in here maybe they go too fast and the 8 runs over them late. 3rd choice the 6 Dancing Waves getting back on turf might be what’s best for this horse been claimed quite a bit which makes a notice for me I think they claimed this horse for the grass this might not be the race but maybe next time out but maybe it is the race

Selections 8-2-6

Race 3 Flatter the Queen number 4 I think sits the trip behind a speed duel of the 6 and 7 and 8 and I like the price of 6-1 and just sits 3rd and they blow up. My second choice if the 4 is scratched the 1 Swamp Ruler same reason but he’s a bit further back maybe the 4 gets the jump. My 3rd choice is the 7 cause out of those speed horses im going to go with Broberg to last longer than the other 3 and first off the claim stats 1103 starts 29% win percent 58% and otb

Selections 4-1-7

Race 4 the 8 horse needs a drop in class if he runs for 30 he wins easy he runs for maiden special he won’t ever win so for that and because price won’t be good I’m going to take a shot go for the kill right here #5 Striking Star 20 to 1 ok I’m crazy yes I am stretching out was 7 to 1 last time lugged out 7 path 5/16th and somehow 2 path 3/8ths if this one connects it might be lights out. 2nd choice Atlantic Ruler number 4 seems like the 8 but the only different is I think he is better than the 8 and he seems to be improving whereas the 8 seems to be staying the same. 3rd pick is the 8 I mean he is consistent I don’t think he can beat the 4 but if the 4 is out then he can beat the 4

So my Selections are 5-4-8

Race 5 My top selection Day Dreamer the 2 first time turf the trainer is 25 percent off the claim he will be favorite he will be right there in the end and is my top selection. 2nd choice Go for Moonshine the 3 he seems to be an average horse nothing wrong with that but he gets to the leaders and just runs out of gas. Number 7 Bye Bye Shanghai is my 3rd choice his turf races look better than his dirt he never ran for a tag on the grass until now might improve

Selections 2-3-7

Race 6 He ran for the same price last time and as 5/2 Jerrys Pridenjoy the 6 my top choice he is 4/1 m/l. My 2nd choice 4 Afleet Roger first time starter only reason why this horse isn’t my top pick hasn’t worked since Dec 24th but he’s bred decent for this James Baker is a good trainer for this level and Declan Carroll I think has a very bright future and I know he can ride very, very well if this horse had a work after that day top choice no problem. My 3rd choice is Just in Tee got C. Lan off for a more aggressive Gabriel Saez dropping in class treat him like a first-time starter

Selections are 6-4-8

Race 7 Well in New Orleans going to have go with the 7 Voodoo Spell he was 8 wide last time in Chicago having some of that deep-dish pizza flying late for 2nd as long as he doesn’t go out to Bourbon Street and then go get a shrimp po’ boy he will be rolling late… Uncle Youdge number 9 he’s going to show speed dropping in class if he runs either race of Laurel Park, he wins this race no question. If this horse wasn’t out so wide, he would be my top pick 11 Whiskey Bravo he loves this track he also maybe he isn’t the same horse

Selection 7-9-11

Race 8 In this race the 5 horse looks like a stand out will be 6 to 5 well if he is 6 to 5 he can’t be my choice in this contest so instead I’ll take the horse that ran 2nd to him a little bit ago O’L Red the 2 yes he got killed when he ran against him a long time ago but he always runs his best race when Viator trains so I’ll take a chance at 6-1. My 2nd choice is the 1 Wonder Run and he has the best name for him… Wonder Run, I wonder if he will run today cause if Wonder Run runs like he can he can win if he runs like his last 2 horses, he won’t hit the board. If somehow the 2 and 1 scratch I have no choice but to take the 5 because I would rather win the race at that point than try to bet him

Selections are 2-1-5

Race 9 ok this is just a shout out not my pick but I hope Potomac River runs well that’s the horse on my profile he means a lot to me he’s the 2 horse with that said heres my picks the 13 an also eligible I don’t know if he will get in but if he does I want him that’s why he is my top pick fantastic grass horse… 10 Dontblamerocket 2nd off the layoff and is 8-1 will go off about 5 to 1 record at Fair Grounds is 6-3-2-0 great record and just loves the turf… and if this horse wasn’t 7/2 m/l I would take him over the 10 the 1 Chip Leader back on grass need I say more

Selections 13-10-1

Race 10 why is the 9 horse in for 5,000 I think somethings wrong with your favorite he was in for 17,500 last time and now in for 5,000 after being walked off, I’ll take Cameron Rules the 2 12-1 if he runs July 3rd 2018 race closing with a rush if he does that hes going to be right there. Curzon Street 10-6-0-2 at the Grounds this 10 year old is still clicking if the 2 scratches I got a great back up. If the 10 horse wasn’t 9/2 he would be my top choice if I need to score a big one in the last race I need to go with the 2 or 8 not the 10 but with that being said the 10 is the horse to beat but is beat able

Selections 2-8-10

I’ll also be doing a percentage on the board and winning races between both me and Gene you can see our percentages on my twitter @dennis_trusty so if I don’t win I can still have the better percentage lol thanks for reading best of luck

Close Menu