Emerald Downs Racing Analysis — Wednesday, September 23, 2020, by Keith Drebin

Race 6. The 2nd leg of the Pick 5 is as tough as the first leg. Nearly everyone in here has a legitimate shot. REMEMBERTOBREATHE made a very early move into a fast pace last time out, and was outfinished late by a couple of contenders in here. BREATHE runs his best races when he’s allowed to settle back off a fast pace and start his rally at the 1/4 pole. He switches to a much more patient rider for this and should get a good pace to rally in to. One of many in here who pull off a win. CEDAR RAPIDS lost a little momentum at a crucial point of the race last time and fell a head short at the wire. CEDAR rallies from far back, so he’s always going to be at the mercy of the pace and traffic. With some racing luck he’s another major player here. AWESOME SLATE has run good in all 3 of his local starts and raced far wide on both turns in his most recent. He’s won 10 of his 31 lifetime starts and if he manages to save a little ground he could add to that win total today. If you can narrow down your picks in the last 3 legs of the Pick 5 you may want to go deep in these first 2 legs to keep your ticket alive. Selections 1-4-7

Race 7. FATS DOMINUS showed last time how brave he gets when he is clear of early pressure. This looks like a repeat situation. The only other horse in here who’s ever been on the early lead won his last start from a couple lengths back, so not expecting him to challenge FATS for the lead today. Looks like a great chance for a wire-to-wire win again. PISTOL POWER has a great record  going 2 turns of late and generally fires a big shot every time he runs. He has enough tactical speed to at least stay in hailing distance of the lead, and if FATS backs up PISTOL is the most likely horse to beat him. PISTOL makes his first start for trainer Velasquez, and he’s been as hot as anyone at this meet. LOLLY EXPRESS ran a deceptively good race when he went a mile 2 races back. He ran against a much better field than this one and was impossibly wide on the second turn. LOLLY continued on fairly well down the lane, but it was too difficult of a task to make a big impression at the wire. This race will be an easier task. Selections 5-1-6

Race 8. SEMI SWEET and GAZING have had a good 3 race rivalry going this meet and appear to tower over the rest of this field. The pace of all 3 races has favored GAZING, but this race is full of speed and should play into SEMI SWEET’s hands today. Expecting to see a lot of tired horses in front of her when she rallies and she has a good shot to repeat her pulling away victory she posted in her first start of this meet. GAZING has raced several lengths ahead of SEMI in the early going of their races, which have unfolded with pretty moderate fractions, yet SEMI has gotten by her in 2 of the 3 meetings. Considering how this race should unfold, thinking GAZING will have a hard time holding SEMI off in this race, too. SHOE GAME faced easier last time and was a clear winner, but she’s already faced the top 2 twice and wasn’t much of a factor. Bottom rungs of the exotics is probably her best hope. Selections 2-8-4

Race 9. CONCALE has shown promise against better in all 3 of her lifetime starts. She loomed, then tired late in her debut, raced far wide on a rail favoring day in her 2nd start, and had traffic trouble and a lackluster ride in her 3rd start. The drop to the bottom in the maiden ranks is a big one and CONCALE may see a hot pace duel up front fall apart late and set things up for her to score a late rallying win. I’VE ALWAYS SAID has also faced tougher in both of her lifetime starts. She’s shown some early foot, but tired badly late each time. Can’t write her off after just 2 starts, but generally, this barn fires with horses coming off the bench. She draws outside the other speeds in here and this may be her now or never moment. CHANTE showed a big closing kick after breaking slow in her first local start, but she’s been somewhat dull in her next two runs. There’s a lot of early speed in this dash and when she fires, she closes ground. If she produces one of her better efforts, she’s plenty capable of getting by everyone late. Selections 3-7-4</div>

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