Race 1
Speed has been dominating the Emerald sprints for the last month, and the morning line favorite has good early foot, so he’s the logical choice, right? Except it’s no fun to take chalk to start the day, so let’s take a horse who apparently has no clue how to leave the gate. CONTINUE ON VICTOR has broken at least 10 lengths behind the field in all of his starts. He’s shown a long, sustained, effective run after he’s gotten his feet underneath him in his last two. He faces a field with several speed types, none of whom look they’ve been begging for this 6 1/2 furlong distance. Probably best to leave the room so you don’t have to see VICTOR leave the gate, but if the early leaders are tiring as expected, the last 3/8 of the race could be worth watching. LOBANESS is one of the speed types in here. Since going wire-to-wire nearly 2 years ago, he’s maintained his good early foot, but hasn’t shown much of a finishing gear. He draws the advantageous outside post and if there’s a speed horse in here who might be able to clear off, he’s the guy. Yes, he broke his maiden going 6 1/2, but does it really look like the added distance today is in his favor? VICTOR may cause his backers to cry early, LOBANESS may cause his backers to cry late. TIZ BRILLIANT is far from consistent, but he’s going to be a big price and the trouble line from his last start is lengthy. He broke a bit slow, then steadied and appeared to climb (maybe from the dirt kickback) up the backside, moved to the extreme outside around the turn and then, just when it looked like he was beginning to kick, a tiring speed horse swerved sharply into his path and the jock had to take up and then just galloped TIZ to the wire from there. TIZ seems to run best when he’s able to get to the outside, and the small field and expected fast pace may allow him to get there easily enough. Chance to light up the tote board.
Selections 3-7-4
Race 2
Time to go to the logical favorite. BUCKLEY BAY got an absolute gift last time when he was the only horse in the field with any early foot and he galloped to an easy wire-to-wire win. 3 of his 5 opponents in here were in his last race and the 2 newcomers really don’t have his kind of speed, so doesn’t this race figure to play out just like his last one? The horse who figures to be laying closest to BAY early is his stablemate, so they will work together to keep the pace slow. What more do you need to know? Stablemate PLAYOFF BOUND raced just off of BUCKLEY’s slow fractions in their last meeting and then couldn’t stay with him down the lane. It was PLAYOFF’s first start in over 5 months, so he figures to be fitter this go around, but fit enough to go by BUCKLEY? Guessing he isn’t. VICENTE’S SHADOW is one of the 2 new faces in here. He’s had 3 sprints this meet and has been hung far wide in all 3. He finished 2nd in his only race at a flat mile, and he shouldn’t be scraping the outside fence in this 6 horse field. He probably isn’t a threat to get the top spot, but could spice up the lower spots of the tris and supers.
Selections 2-6-4
Race 3
Very little doubt who the second pick is in here, so let’s look for the horse who will beat him today. STAND TO is the obvious choice. After putting in a solid effort in his career debut, he showed the expected improvement in his second start. STAND battled the eventual winner from start to finish, and it took until the final jump until he was beaten a head and a neck for the whole thing. There’s no reason to think that there could be even more improvement coming in start number 3. It looks possible that he could get a fairly easy lead in here, but he’s already shown that he’s going to run his race even if he’s challenged early. What needs to be said about TIME ‘N TIME AGAIN? 16 starts, 0 wins, 7 seconds, 4 thirds. He’s been second 4 out of his last 5 starts. He never quite has the late burst he needs to get by the final horse. He had a perfect trip behind 2 dueling leaders last time, and though he only got beat a head, he never really gave you the sense that he was digging as deep as he could in order to get the win. Takes blinkers off today, but not sure that will change things. Guessing someone gets to the wire before he does. MOSQUITO FLEET got thrown to the wolves in his stakes try last time, but in his 2 maiden races before that, he had finished only a length or so behind TIME in both. In his most recent maiden race, he looked like he was rallying a little better than TIME was, but he ran up on some traffic in midstretch and lost a little momentum when he had to shift out to get a clear path. Probably the 3rd choice in here, but a win is not out of the question.
Selections 5-3-6
Race 4
Some interesting pedigrees and workouts among the first time starters in here, but going to stick with the 2 experienced runners, who both had promising debuts. WHISKEY NOT WINE took a bit of a right hand turn leaving the gate and lost some early position. His rider hustled him hard and WHISKEY moved up strongly in the deepest part of the track to chase a promising runner through fast fractions, before tiring a little late. He likely will break better with an out under his belt, and he showed enough speed in his debut that he could lead these the whole way around. TWILIGHT RIDER also broke a bit slow in his debut. His rider appeared to let him gather himself before asking him to run around the turn. It took awhile to get going, but he showed a good rally late, against what could end up being a very good group of 2 year olds. No reason he couldn’t move up enough in here to get his diploma. HEFTY GARCIA debuts for Lucarelli in here, and that barns 2 year olds have all been firing this year. The barn doesn’t necessarily tip you off in the mornings, but the pedigree, the work tab and the presence of Matias suggest this guy can run.
Selections 4-5-2
Race 5
Originally thought CREST DRIVE took advantage of being in a paceless race on a speed favoring day to get the victory in his last start. But, he actually ran fast fractions to get to the lead, and, for the first time in nearly a year, he showed no signs of throwing in the towel. That, coupled with the fact that it was his first race for a trainer, Jesse Velasquez, who is having a big meet, make it seem that this effort was no fluke. Unless the rail horse re-discovers his early foot, CREST should have no trouble getting a clear lead, and he showed last season he can string wins together. Wire-to-wire again. REDROCK TRAIL hasn’t shown his usual early speed in his 2 starts since being claimed here. He actually finished well in his last try while being hung far wide on a rail favoring day. REDROCK switches back to the last jockey who was able to put him on the lead in a race. From the one hole, what style will we see? That could have a big say in how this race plays out. If the top 2 go at each other early, PISTOL POWER could be the one to benefit. POWER is only a nose away from having 2 wins in a row coming into this race. He always fires his best shot, but he has no early foot and is going to need a lot of help up front if he’s going to get the win. Not expecting a big enough speed duel for POWER to get all of it.
Selections 2-1-7.
Race 6
SUNSHINE BEACH has run two strong races to begin her career. She had traffic trouble early in her debut, rushed up to take the lead going into the turn, before tiring late. In her second start, she took a clear lead at midstretch before being caught late by a filly who ran 3rd in last week’s stakes as the 2nd favorite. Since her second start BEACH has come back to record a fast work last week. Barring some dramatic improvement from one of her rivals she looks like a short priced winner. STELLACZAR had a little traffic trouble down the lane when finishing 3rd behind the top pick in their last out. She probably wasn’t going to finish ahead of BEACH, but surely she would have been closer. She showed big improvement from race 1 of her career to her 2nd and if she continues to move forward in this start and has a cleaner trip she’s the most likely upsetter. CLUB ROYALE looked to be uncomfortable while racing in a cluster of horses nearing the turn and appeared to take herself out of the traffic on her own. She tried to make another run when clear, but the top two finishers had already pulled far ahead. Despite the ordinary final time, the horses who have run back since that racea have all run well. The winner ran 2nd in last week’s stakes. The 2nd, 3rd and 5th place finishers came back to all be in a 4 horse photo for the win in their next try and even the last place finisher came back to run second at 60-1 in her next start. ROYALE would probably need to improve to outrun the top 2, but 2nd out improvement is generally expected with 2 year olds, so she’s a possible player at a big price.
Selections 6-3-9
Race 7
It’s easy to see the lack of early speed in this group. LAST ONE STANDING has been on top of the early lead in every one of his last 4 starts this meet. Among the entire rest of the field there is only horse, one time, who has been with the leaders early. When you find what appears to be the best horse in the field AND he figures to get an easy lead, your handicapping is done…on to the next race. Simply put, LAST ONE STANDING is going to be tough to beat here. MR BINGLEY’s best race of the meet was when he was pushed to duel for the early lead. In fact, he beat LAST ONE in that race, though, LAST ONE killed his own chances by breaking slow and having to be rushed to get to the lead. BINGLEY was allowed to drop quite a ways back early in his latest, made a nice move leaving the turn, then was tentatively ridden behind horses through the lane. This might be a great time to use BINGLEYS speed again. If he’s allowed to drop way back again, he probably can’t outkick the closers when the running starts. HURRICANE FORCE is most likely the best closer in here. He had a curious trip last out. After a fairly good break from the inside he and/or his rider decided to take themselves much further back than is normal for FORCE, then while the other closers were moving inside to save ground around the turn, FORCE and/or his rider decided to move as far wide as possible in order to find running room on a day when the inside part of the track was the place to be. FORCE ran his last quarter in under 24 seconds, but trying to make up 11 lengths in the lane is near impossible here this summer. If starting from the outside post allows FORCE to be more involved in the first part of the race, maybe he can get by the leaders late.
Selections 6-3-8
Race 8
Probably the spread race of the Pick 5. Hard to trust any of these. DOUBLE A PROSPECT seemed to lose himself after being claimed at the end of last year’s Emerald meet. But, in his last 2 starts, he’s shown signs of getting his form back. He ran a closing 5th in a solid 6 furlong dash two races back and followed it up with a 3rd in his first mile try of the year. It looks like there will be an honest pace in here and none of the speed horses have shown any stick of late, so PROSPECTS stalking gear and an inside post could have him positioned to make the first run. It’s been a long time since PROSPECT has seen the winners circle and he has a tendency to hang at crunch time. Like him in here, but don’t trust him in here. DYF has had a great Emerald meet. 1 win, 1 second, 2 thirds from 4 starts. No one in here comes close to matching his current form. In his last start he made an early move into a hot pace, looked like an easy winner at the top of the lane, but nearly paid the price for the early move and barely held on, while running his mile record on dirt to 2 for 2. The race DYF ran in his last start would probably be good enough against this field, but he was claimed out of the race and also draws a tough post going a flat mile. He sure is good enough to win his second straight here, but it’s no sure thing that he runs that race again. INDYGO BO was part of a big speed duel in his last and tired badly down the lane. 2 of the pace rivals are back in here, but both of them faded long before BO did, so it’s possible he could catch a breather somewhere in the middle part of the race. If he’s able to grab that breather, in this field, he may be able to last to the wire..Again, he’s a live possibility, but be careful. Selections 1-9-4
Race 9
ZANAB has improved in all of her sprints this season and now stretches out to what may be her preferred distance. She launches her move from near the back of the pack and needs to have a pace battle up front to help her kick, but the two inside mares look like they will provide the battle. ZANAB won here last season when she moved from a sprint to a mile. No reason she can’t do it again this season. IF YOU WANT IT laid far back while the frontrunners battled in her last race. While the leaders tired, she launched her run and won going away. The two frontrunners from the last race are back in here, so it’s entirely possible she will get the same setup as she did in her winning race. INDIAN POWER lasted far longer than her pace rival did in their last.The two mares battled through fast fractions that day, but it’s difficult to see the pace being slowed down this time around. If somehow INDIAN can get the first half mile slowed down, she may put up a fight when the closers roll up to her. Selections 5-6-2
Race 10
Not too difficult to identify the horses in good form here, afterall, there are only two entrants in here who were beaten less than 10 lengths in their last start. SOVEREIGN NATION battled through fast fractions before running 2nd in his last out. The final quarter mile was slow, but that could be a product of the fast 4 furlongs at the beginning. NATION looks quicker than any of these, and if she can get to the lead without a huge battle she may be long gone. FRENCH COAST figures to be tracking NATION early, but she doesn’t appear quick enough to keep her from backing the pace up. Though she has shown signs of hanging at crunch time, if FRENCH does find a finishing gear she may be able to reel NATION in. COOLER THAN YOU has a good finishing kick when sprinting, but the trouble is he gets double digits back early, before he launches his kick.You need everything to go right in order to win from the clouds at Emerald. COOLER appears to be the third of the 3 contenders in here, but with his running style and the likely shape of this race, it’s difficult to see a win for him here. Selections 5-9-8