“And runners away” Emerald Downs enters the racing mix this afternoon with 10 competitive betting races and an average of nearly 9 horses per race
Race 1
11-year-old warrior DREAMCATCHER had several races from Turf Paradise last winter that would win this. Don’t know what happened in his previous, but jockey who got a lot of run out him in Arizona gets back aboard. He finished 1-2-3 in 15 of his 17 starts in 2019. With that kind of consistency, I’m guessing he returns to form in here. The outside post will have him in an excellent spot to stalk and pounce in here. INTELICRYPT looks the quickest in a field that doesn’t show a lot of committed speed types. He has had success at these shorter distance races previously. He was an easy wire-to-wire winner going 4 1/2 in Arizona in his last, only to have his number taken down. Don’t see his kind of speed in here, and he could take them a long way. Another 11 year old, DOCTOR BRUCE S clearly loves his job. He rarely runs a bad one on a fast track. In his first two starts last season, he ran very well against a couple of tough-for-the-level speedsters. He’s a little win-shy and tends to break a step slow, but you should see this grey in the mix down to the wire.
Selections 10-7-2.
Race 2
Of the horses who have run before, VROYSKY and BRETT stick out. Give the nod to VROYSKY. He had traffic problems in his debut and then showed good speed in a solid 6-furlong maiden allowance race last out at Turf Paradise. Cutting back to 5 furlongs could make him the one to catch if he breaks alertly from a sometimes tricky post. Trainer Joe Toye has been a consistent top 10 presence in the Emerald trainers standings and could easily win the first two races of the season. BRETT showed good promise in 3 of his first four races last year, including finishing 2nd in a good maiden allowance in his debut and 3rd in a stake in his 2nd start, and then had trouble in his season finale. Promising young trainer, Jorge Rosales, won with a couple of horses coming off the bench in Grants Pass last week. Could do it here today. ATTA BOY BILLY broke poorly in both his starts last season and also went against a strong track bias in the last one. He finished up deceptively well in both starts and has last year’s leading rider Wales up. Breaking slowly again will put him in a tough position going 5 furlongs, but if he’s learned to leave the gate more alertly than last year, there may be more to see here than what shows on paper.
Selections 1-2-5
Race 3
“Speed kills” is a universal saying in horse racing. If a solid contender appears to be able to get to an early lead and then relax with little or no pressure, he’s going to be a difficult horse to get by late in the race. LOBANESS looks like he just may be that kind of horse in here. He was pressured on the lead in all his starts last year, but continued on fairly well to get decent chunks of the purse without winning. No one in here has shown the ability to make the lead in a sprint race but him. Rider Gary Wales does well getting horses like this to the lead and at 5 1/2 furlongs he’s going to have to be caught. NORSKI showed decent tactical speed at Santa Anita and may be laying the closest to the leader should he tire. The outside post is the perfect spot for a horse with his running style. When jockey Whitaker decides to hit the gas pedal she shouldn’t have to deal with any possible traffic issues that would cause her to hit the breaks. The glaring problem here is he only shows 1 win in 15 starts, but 6 seconds and 3 thirds. Think he’s a must use in the lower rungs of the exotics, but probably not a huge player on top. ROCKET POWER has an advantage over all of these in that he ran at Golden Gate just 2 weeks ago. He generally comes running from the back of the field and unless this race sets up differently than it appears, that may not be the style that wins here. On a positive note, he’s trained by last year’s runaway leading trainer, Frank Lucarelli and his starters always merit a second look. On a negative note, he won his first lifetime start and hasn’t won since. He has 2 seconds and 4 thirds in his last 10 starts, so he’s a key player in the exotics. If the top pick doesn’t win, this is looks like an evenly matched group.
Selections 1-6-3
Race 4. This is a total headscratcher for me. There are huge knocks on every horse in here who have run before, and all the first time starters have trainers who have success with these types before, but none of them show workout tabs that point them out. FREESTONE had a lot of betting action in a tough maiden allowance in his debut at Golden Gate. But that was over a year and half ago and he hasn’t been seen since. His trainer, Blaine Wright, is top notch and this isn’t the first time he’s entered a horse aggressively like this. That’s how you win races. This horse shows a pretty promising worktab for this race, and if there’s anything left in the tank this race could be over early. ALWAYS WORKING ran a good second in a mediocre maiden race at Turf Paradise in his second lifetime start and didn’t fire much in his next start when trainer Joe Toye claimed him. He’s had 2 fast works at Emerald since then. He’s sired by Harbor The Gold, by far Washington states leading sire, so it would be no surprise if he improves a bunch in his home state, but it’s possible that he just isn’t much stock. But, does he need to be in here? ROUGH RIDER is a 5 year old and has only made 2 lifetime starts. Red Flag #1. He got beat 24 lengths in his debut and 67 lengths next time out. Red Flag #2. He only beat one horse home in each of those starts. Red Flag #3. But, he took good betting action in both of those starts against tougher at Santa Anita and did show a tiny bit of early speed in both those races. He’s had 3 straight fastest-of-the-day workouts in May and June. Can he run some, or is he the true example of a “morning glory”? Those works are going to get my attention once…..but only once
Selections 4-6-1
Race 5
It looks like there are 2 need-the-lead types in here, so this could set the table for the closers. STYLE DADDY could be the one. There’s a lot of positives to see. He’s trained by Blaine Wright, for starters. The outside post should keep him out of traffic when it’s time for him to move. Jose Zunino isn’t a big name rider here, but has always had a good record when he rides for Wright. He had a pretty consistent finishing kick when he was sprinting in California and that should work well in here. His 1 win in 13 starts is bothersome until you realize it’s pretty much par for the course in this group. AZADI beat a decent field in his debut at Turf Paradise and was claimed for $12,500 by Lucarelli. He broke bad in his next start and didn’t show much. Now here he is, in for $5,000. What to do? Lucarelli plays the claiming game as well as anyone locally and is always tough to read. He’s worked regularly, though slowly since arriving up here. Again, that is another part of Lucarelli’s style, he doesn’t tip anything off in the morning workouts. Lucarelli is defending leading trainer, this horses owner is defending leading owner. Guessing they are both wanting to come out firing. Thinking this guy is live. MOLAF is Blaine Wright’s second horse in here. He hasn’t really decided on his running style. He has been on/near the lead, though except in his maiden breaker, he generally backs up a little. And he hasn’t showed a real strong kick when he comes from out of it. His only 3 races on his form where he ran on a real dirt track might be his 3 best races period. He’s had a solid string of works up here and get Gary Wales to ride. This race could easily be a Blaine Wright exacta.
Selections 8-6-3.
Race 7
Doesnt take a lot of imagination to pick short priced favorites to win, but 8/5 morning line favorite GRAZEN VALOR has several things going for her that point her out. While most of her opponents are coming off long layoffs, GRAZEN ran close up 3rd at Golden Gate in May and 2 weeks ago led a race going a mile for nearly 6 furlongs. A sprinter who shows good speed in a mile race and then cuts back to a sprint is an old time angle that still works. GRAZEN has previously mentioned Blaine Wright as her trainer and Gary Wales as her jockey. She’s been running mainly on the synthetic surface of Golden Gate, but her one try on traditional dirt saw her get beat a short nose. Got to beat her to win. SALSA VERDE may have the best chance at an upset. She won a mile race at Golden Gate in May, so that may give her a fitness edge over most of these. It could be argued that she ran some of her best races versus better fields on “real” dirt in So Cal before she went north to Golden Gate. Jeff Metz is her trainer and he has always hit at a high win percentage at Emerald. The one big drawback is that she has only run in races at a mile or more. She figures to be a long way back early in a 5 1/2 furlongs race and will need someone to battle with GRAZEN early to have a shot. ABRAA JABRAA is the only one of the rest of these who had any success after she broke her maiden last season. The 3 races she had where she didn’t have traffic troubles resulted in a win and 2 second place finishes. Her trainer, Tim McCanna, won several training titles a few years back at Emerald before he moved most of his stock to Golden Gate. He has a smaller stable here now, but he’s still dangerous with what he runs. He’s not known to work his horses fast in the morning, so ABRAA’S fastest-of-the-day 5 furlong work last week may be telling you she is ready for a big race.
Selections 4-5-7
Race 8
GUARDINGTHEMONEY has the perfect outside draw to spring an upset in here. There may only be one other horse in here with sprinters speed, and he drew the one hole and looks a little cheap to boot. ‘MONEY will be in perfect spot to stalk or make his own pace in here. Last year he dueled with 2 very, very tough sprinters in his first starts of the meet and held on quite well under the circumstances. It should be a lot easier for him on the front end in here. His trainer, Jose Navarro, is vastly underrated. He gets a lot of run out of lesser stock and he proved his ability by training the champion 2 year old filly here last season. He’ll have this one ready. The rest of this field seems evenly matched. SMOOTHEE LEE improved a ton last year and wound up the meet with 2 straight wins. He’s not really quick, but he can stay close enough to the leaders that he won’t be left with way too much to do in the lane. Gary Wales rode him to his last 2 wins and got more early speed out of him than any other jocks last year. He’s back on him again and that should be a plus. SMOOTHEE won 4 of his 8 starts last season, and his last 2 wins were by a head and a neck, so there’s no question about how hard he tries. GENTLE PRINCE got eliminated right out of the gate in his last start, but before that he had put together a pretty good string of races at Emerald and Turf Paradise. He’s generally a route horse, but the 2 sprints showing on his form are a win and a second. He has 3 wins and a second in 4 starts at Emerald, so you know he likes it here. The field figures to be bunched together down the backside, so staying out of trouble will be important. Jockey Jake Samuels hasn’t ridden here much. May have a live one here.
selections 6-4-2
Race 9
It is always risky to go against crowd favorite WINE AT NINE at Emerald. But the fact that he lost his first 3 starts last year, that he looks like he will be in a big multi-horse battle on the front end and he’ll be a short price has me looking for an upsetter. My head says play against him, but my heart won’t feel bad if he beats me. VINCENTE’S SHADOW may be the one. He’s shown a consistent closing kick sprinting on dirt and this may be the right spot for that style. He ran some really smart races here last year in some deceptively tough spots. The 9 hole should keep him out of trouble when he begins his kick. His last 2 works have been quite good and his 9 placings in 13 lifetime Emerald starts tells you what he thinks about this place. If WINE AT NINE wins here he will have earned it. There’s a young horse with early foot in the 2 hole, and outside of WINE is a horse who ran some fast early fractions at Golden Gate this spring. Not expecting an easy lead for anyone in here. That being said any horse who has won 18 races in 45 starts like WINE has deserves a 2nd and 3rd look. Afraid he may win the front end war, but lose the finish line battle. LEGITIMATE CAUSE beat VINCENTE in his first Emerald start last season. He also has that strong closing kick that this race may be looking for. He only ran 5 times last meet and didn’t seem to progress as much as VINCENTE, but Lucarelli shows a lot of confidence in this guy by putting him a tough spot like this. You don’t win training titles by overmatching your horses. He may need to improve to win this thing, but he’s a must use in the exacta and trifecta.
Selections 9-8-7
Race 10
A typical lower end maiden race to end the card. Not a whole lot of ability showing in the form. PORT LIONS showed pretty good early speed in her 3 starts last season while running with better. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of early speed in this group, so a drop in class, a years maturity, and possibly no pace competition could get LIONS to the winners circle. Howard Belvoir has been a top trainer here for more years than he wants to admit and Whitaker has been his stable rider for not quite as long. She figures to be the favorite but it’s hard to be confident on anyone here. DRAGON LADY is debuting on the bottom, which generally isn’t a positive sign, but Blaine Wright is deadly with this kind of move. He’s great at judging the talent level of young horses and he generally doesn’t waste any starts getting them to the right spot to get a win. Making your debut as a 5 year old isn’t really how you want to do it, but it could be a tip off that she has enough ability to warrant the connections patience. It also could scare off potential claims and give Wright a chance to steal one here. O’S SO SERIOUS has only been beaten once in her life and that in itself can be seen as a positive in a cheap maiden race. She broke a little sluggish in her debut, but made a pretty nice run on the far outside around the turn, before tiring down the lane. The winner of the race won by over 9 lengths, so SERIOUS didn’t get beat much by everyone else in the race. Again, for a top trainer, like Lucarelli, to bring back a 4 year old maiden that only has gotten to the races once tells me they still have some hope for her. This fillies family has had a bunch of quick horses in it and she shows a fast work from the gate just a few days ago. Won’t be shocked if she leaves the gate with run on her mind and is in the battle right away.
Selections 4-8-11