Race 1
No fun starting out a great betting card by taking the chalk, so taking a stand against the logical favorite. EMMA’S A BEAST is dropping out of a tough heat. The 2nd and 4th place finishers came back to run 2nd and 3rd last week. EMMA got clobbered coming out of gate and it cost her some positioning early and then she was forced wide the rest of the way. She’s got a little speed and there doesn’t seem to be much of that in here. Claiming a horse for $8,000 and running it right back for $5,000 isn’t a ringing endorsement, but Terry Gillihan’s consistently high win percentage tells you he knows how to read the condition book. Thinking she’s the one in here. LUCILLE and SECRET PARANOIA look like they are jumping up in class, but they are going from non winners of 4 lifetime to a non winners of 3 lifetime, so it’s more of a lateral move than it appears. Both had rough go’s in their last. LUCILLE broke several lengths slow and was playing catch up the rest of the way. She made a long sustained run but was forced to run extremely wide the whole trip. An alert beginning should have her in a lot better position early in a race where the pace may be slow. SECRET PARANOIA broke fine, but the outside 2 horses came over on her a few jumps out of the gate and she had to check and was also forced to play catch up while racing wide as well. She’s shown pretty good early foot in her sprints in California, so expecting to see her right on top of the pace in here.
Selections 3-4-5
Race 2
DOCTOR BRUCE S is going as good as ever at age 11. He’s had 2 sharp sprints and now may actually stretching out to his best distance. He’s got a great post, and depending on what the horse next door does he’ll either be on the lead or in a great stalking position. Several of his opponents don’t look like they are in their best of form coming into this and a sharp BRUCE could have found a great spot to get his second in a row. WEST COAST INDY ran on well to finish second after his one sprint prep. Expected improvement will make him a big factor in here. But INDY needs a hot pace in front of him and it may or not develop in here. On top of which, in his Emerald races he’s had a tendency to hang a bit at crunch time. May need to time things perfectly to get the win here. EDDIE AND THE KING has been away over 6 months but connections must be feeling good about his conditioning to go straight into this mile race without a sprint prep first. He’s got good tactical speed and it will be interesting to see how he and the inside horse play this. If they avoid dueling early this could end up being a slow paced affair that is dominated on the front end.
Selections 1-3-2
Race 3
It’s not hard to visualize 6 of the 7 entrants in here wanting to be on or very close to the lead and a very large gap back to the only closer of this group. Under those circumstances I’ll take the closer. ITS ALLABOUT JERRY ran a huge race last time out. He appeared to stumble or prop leaving the gate and by the time he regained his momentum he was 30 lengths off the lead. He was still last by a large margin at the quarter pole. From there to the wire he was full of run. JERRY has had most of his success as a router, but this race seems to set up perfectly for him to get a win at 6 furlongs. If he can be close enough to actually see the rest of his field down the backside he should have some very tired leaders in front of him to reel in late. GENERAL MACH FOUR loves to win races. 12 for 35 lifetime and 8 wins in 17 starts in 2019. All his wins showing were wire-to-wire efforts, but an outside post gives his rider a perfect opportunity to stalk the other speedsters without getting dirt in his face and try to make the first run at the leaders when he sees fit. A well timed ride could return GENERAL back to the winners circle yet again. Who’s going to be the speed horse who survives the battle the longest? CODY’S CHOICE was in a huge speed race last out as well, and it was with better horses than these. 6 furlongs is generally a stretch for CODY, but he ran a very good 6 1/2 furlong race last year with this rider last year. If somehow he could get clear early, his chances would improve greatly.
Selections 7-6-2
Race 4
Contentious group, so going to look for a price. HAVEULOSTYOURMIND had some trouble in his first start of the season and he was facing a tough group of maiden allowance horses to boot. This is a big drop into a $15,000 claiming group. MIND got bumped around leaving the gate, ran in uncomfortable traffic up the backside before steadying out heading to the 3/8 pole. He closed pretty well down the lane without having a wide open path and then looked like he got a bit tired late. A race under his belt, an outside post and a big class drop says this could be the money run. He doesn’t have a lot of speed, but there could be a decent pace in here to help him out. A fast 5/8 work last week adds to his appeal. STANLEY’S WAVE comes out of a very rapid maiden race last time out and this should be an easier group. He was bumped hard leaving the gate and then raced way wide the whole trip around there. He showed decent speed in his first two outs last season and with a better break he should be close up with the leaders early. MAJESTIC CAFE ran a close up second on this level last time out, so that makes him an obvious contenders. But it was a moderate field he faced and the final time was just average. He’s got a great post to stalk the leaders from and he’s eligible to improve and he’d be no real surprise if he gets the money.
Selections 8-6-7
Race 5
No one in here I’d be super confident in. Pretty dull forms to be seen all around. MOLAF is the logical call. He’s strung together 3 pretty good races in a row and ran a solid 3rd at this level opening day. He had a good speed duel up front to help him that day, but it looks like he probably will get one today, as well. He’s no world beater, but he looks like the most reliable horse in here. LOBANESS has been a big disappointment in his 2 starts this meet, but he’s meeting much, much softer in here. The first half mile he ran in his last race would probably put him a couple lengths in front here and that may all the confidence boost he needs to carry him home. Jockey Gary Wales jumps off the top choice to ride this guy. Knowing the handicapping prowess of most jockeys not sure if his choosing LOBANESS is a plus or a minus. Tough to make much of a case for any of the others, but AZADI has only run 3 times and adds blinkers for this, so it’s possible there could be some improving still to do. He didn’t break well in his last start and was far wide the whole around and only got beat 2 lengths by our top choice. Have more confidence in MOLAF firing, but if AZADI moves forward with the addition of blinkers maybe he’s the upsetter.
Selections 3-2-1
Race 6
HURRICANE FORCE isn’t exactly the model of consistency, but anything close to his 3rd place opening weekend for $5,000 claimers will win this $2,500 claiming event for fun. He raced wide around the turn and closed well while getting beat by a horse who won his next start and is the ML favorite for $10,000 later today. HURRICANES route race 2 weeks ago was dull, but the his other route race showing on his form was dull as well, so maybe sprinting is his game. Trainer Toye signals his intention here with the jockey switch to. Gary Wales. Joe Toyes “tell” is that he will always have the 1st or 2nd leading rider on his “live” horses. MANY MOODS is the all-or-nothing play in here. He wants to be on a solo lead, in that opening weekend $5,000 sprint he was outfooted for the lead by a very fast horse and he gave up at the quarter pole. With the 11 horse scratching, MOODS should find a much easier path to the lead with these. MOODS is tough to run down if he has a daylight lead at the quarter pole and that looks like a distinct possibility in here. The top 2 picks look to have a clear edge in here. TRUST IN LIBERTY ran a big race to finish 2nd against some of these 2 weeks ago. He’s drawn an outside post in a big field but he can’t possibly be any wider than he was in his last start. He finished very well down the lane considering how much ground he lost. His overall form is a bit spotty, but if you just look at his sprints from the last part of Emerald last year and his sprints in Arizona over the winter and you could make the case that his race the other day wasn’t such a fluke.
Selections 2-10-9
Race 7
SOMETHIN’BOUT IRIS chased a speedball who ran away and hid in her last, but IRIS continued on to be a clear second in a heat that was rapid from start to finish. There isn’t anyone in here who looks like they will push IRIS thru the kind of splits she saw in her last. She doesn’t have to have the lead, but in hern e she’s a real wire to wire threat. There may be a little reason for concern in that she was claimed for $12,500 last year, was then put on the shelf for nearly a year, runs a good 2nd for $15,000 and now is in for $8,000. But she did get beat by 9 lengths in that second place, so the price drop seems logical. FORTUNE IN SILK finished a couple lengths behind IRIS in their last race but chased the same fast fractions before fading. There was a big inside bias in play on July 2nd and SILK raced wider than IRIS, so maybe there isn’t much separating the two of them on a neutral. JADEY AT THE BAR is the wild upsetter pick. She wants to race up close to the lead, but she absolutely blew the break in her last and was trying to close some ground from the far outside, although closing ground is really not her game. 1 win and 8 seconds in 22 starts tells you that she’s probably not a great win candidate, but she was in the thick of it in most of year Emerald and Turf Paradise sprints last fall and winter. She’ll be a big price and could fill out the lower rungs of the horizontals.
Selections 2-10-1
Race 8
Contentious heat here. OLD SCHOOL IKE ran a big race a couple weeks back. He broke a couple steps slow and then had a hard wide rush around the first turn to finally shake loose on the lead on the backside. Considering the slow break he went quite fast to make the lead and not surprisingly he tired and got passed by a horse who was taking a sneaky edge in class. There’s some other speed in here, but thinking with a clean break IKE still should have an easier time getting to front than in his last. When he gets a clear lead he’s a tough one to get by. There could be some tired horses turning for home and it’s possible REMEMBERTOBREATHE could pick them all up for his 2nd win in a row. He’s a tough old guy who still knows where the wire is. He can be placed anywhere and no matter the pace scenario he should be well positioned to pick up the pieces. CEDAR RAPIDS finished just behind BREATHE and figures to be closing again. RAPIDS tends to get himself back at the tail of the field and usually gives himself a little too much to do to get the win. He had a perfect trip on the rail to get within a length of BREATHE in his last. Can’t always count on a rail skimming trip from the back of the pack. A minor slice most likely
Selections 7-8-9
Race 9
Another good betting contest. JAVU loves to be involved in a good pace battle and from an outside post he’ll be able to put himself in the right place to fight. There are a couple potential pace horses on his inside, but 6 1/2 furlongs looks like a stretch for them to go wire-to-wire. JAVU was claimed, ran once and has been away since February. But trainer Ortiz always hits at a high percentage and is quite aggressive at the entry box. Ortiz owns this guy and you can be sure he’d be running a lot cheaper if all was not well. Expecting him to fire fresh. MIXO ran a big 2nd in a fast race in his first local start, but that runs his local record to 1 win in 24 starts. He tends to roll into contention around the turn and early in the stretch but never seems to keep his momentum late. He ran faster than anyone in this race last time, so he’s a must use, but probably not real heavy in the top spot. OMACHE KID goes goes for his 3rd in a row at this meet. Never underestimate a horse when he gets on a hot streak, even when he is moving up the ladder, but this is a tougher group than he’s faced here. KID used to lay close to the lead, but it’s starting to look like he runs his best when he’s taken off the pace a few lengths. Don’t be shocked if he pulls off another one here.
Selections 8-6-4
Race 10
After a series of good handicapping challenges before this race, sadly, it looks like a chalky finale. DRAGON LADY didn’t get away real clean in her last and was quite a ways out of it early on. Took her a while to get going, but when she swung out at the top of the lane, she picked it up and finished with a strong rally. There’s a little speed on the outside in here and LADY should find plenty of tired horses who are waiting for her to go by them in the lane. Short price, but she probably deserves it. SAN JUAN STORM also ran 2nd in her last one, but there wasn’t much to see out of her opponents that day. Her jockey rode both of the top 2 picks last out and went to the top pick here (again, is this a positive or a negative). She had a clean, inside trip in her last and with 9 lifetime starts, not much reason to expect improvement. TWISTY LUCK is a bit of an unknown in here, which is reason enough to be the 3rd pick here. She wasn’t too well thought of by the California bettors, but she ran good enough to be a factor here. She’s bred to have some early lick, but she’s broke bad in her both her starts, and the inside post is not the place to try to correct that habit. She’s got two pretty good works since she moved up here, and with a clean break she may surprise these. Selections 6-5-1</div>