Race 1: The Thursday evening card kicks off with a MC for $8k, and of the two heavy favorites I prefer the lighter raced #6 Linchpins Wake. She ran a great race in her debut, firing a huge figure, and closed well. She returned to the same level and was bet to under 2-1, but failed to fire as she was last out of the gate. Lucarelli claimed her and drops her a level today, where he has great numbers. #2 Living Legend goes out first off the claim for Dan Markle, and moves up in class. He has a positive ROI claiming and moving them up, and this filly gets a smaller field today, where last time she was caught early in some traffic, and never got into the race. #3 Stand in Your Love has 6 ITM finishes in her 7 race career, but seems very camera shy. Her figures make her a contender, as she gets a third crack at this level after moving down steadily through her campaign.
Race 2: This open MSW has a couple nice horses who have made their way to the races recently as 3 year olds. #1 Spittin Image has run two good numbers at this level, and should move forward for trainer Stenslie. Has shown he likes to be on the lead, and might be fit enough in his 3rd start to wire them from the rail draw. #2 Long Lance broke awkwardly in his debut, but still ran respectably, showing interest late while passing horses. Has worked well coming out of that effort, and doesn’t need to move forward much to win. #3 Stand To is stepping up from MC $25k, but his figure fit with this group. Could improve with the confident class move, as he has put in great works in the mornings. The heavy favorite is 0-15 and looks to offer no value at the projected price.
Race 3: Older fillies and mares try and get their second lifetime win, going the two turn mile. #3 Salsa Verde has already gone a route this season at Emerald, where she didn’t do much running, but then returned in a sprint where she closed with interest. She broke her maiden earlier this year in GG at a mile, and may have some closing kick with the sprint tune up last week. Drops to the lowest level she has seen for trainer Jeff Metz. #1 Sigrid’s Gold might be able to control the pace from the inside post, as she does her best on the lead. Her race last out was the best of her career from a figure standpoint, and any improvement make her among the horses to beat. #7 Why Are U So Sweet comes in off a good effort, after breaking poorly, and may be raced into shape after 3 starts this meet.
Race 4: This bottom level claimer is a group of hard-knocking race horses who love to run, albeit for smaller purses. #5 Seattle Smoke has yet to win this year, coming up a neck short last out in a thrilling stretch duel, but is on the verge. His figures have improved with each outing this season, dropping steadily down the claiming ladder, and if he stays on course, should be formidable. #4 Dudley Studley usually puts in a solid effort, so we can put a line through his last out, and look for this gelding to bounce back to solid form. Dropping a level and picking up Gutierrez bodes well for his chances today. #8 Cats Gulch is coming in off of two efforts where he pressed the pace, only to give way mid-race. If he can carry that early pace further today, he should be contending in the stretch.
Race 5: Another $2.5k claimer going 6 furlongs, and you can count on #8 Crest Drive to break for the lead from the outside post. He has been putting in solid efforts on the front end, eventually tiring in the stretch, and may have needed the racing to get back into form. Claimed out of his last race, new trainer Rigoberto Velasquez has been hot this meet. He wins at a 31% clip, with a positive ROI, when he gets a new horse in his barn. #6 Bernie has been ITM in over half of his career starts, and is coming in off his best race of the season. Beaten less than 2 lengths last out, he had some traffic trouble in the stretch, and should improve without being impeded. #7 Cats Touch has taken money, and finished on the board in all of his starts this meet. His figures put him squarely in the hunt for the win if he can stay close to what looks to be a solid pace. Retains jockey Jose Zunino, who knows this horse well, despite switching barns.
Race 6: In this N2L you can make a case for much of the field, but I think that the lightly raced #2 Dazzling Debbi has the most upside. She narrowly missed clearing this condition in her seasonal debut, losing by a head at a higher level. She is dropping down and should fit well, where most of her opponents are very unproven. #8 Bellamagic has been steadily improving her figures since coming off the layoff, and any move forward would put her in the winner’s circle. Went off favorite last out and this level, closing well to be 3rd. #5 Lookforthedimple is coming in first off the claim for Rosales, as he must have seen something he liked previous to the last race. The barn change might be what is needed to shake this filly up, as she seems to be rounding into form.
Race 7: The $40k Boeing Stakes for older fillies and mares offers up a great field of well matched competitors. 5 of the 7 runners met last month in a high level optional claimer, in which #7 Killarney Lass set the pace. She showed good fight while being collared by the pressing foes in the lane, and should move forward 2nd off the layoff. She worked a bullet at 3F since her last out, and will be sharp for this race. #1 Diamonds R broke last in her seasonal debut, the common race among these runners, and put in a solid, sustained run to finish 3rd by a neck. The way she finished says the extra furlong today won’t be an issue, and might even be an advantage. She has also worked well since that outing, posting a 5F work in a blistering 57/2. #2 Magical Spell went up against a monster in Daffodil Sweet last time out, and was bet hard in her seasonal debut, both with less than ideal trips. The bullet work shows up here as well, and stretching another half a furlong gives her more room to work with.
Race 8: We go the two turn mile at Emerald with a large field of 10 for a tag of $3.5k. #2 Eddie and the King came back off the break last out at this distance and finished runner-up, after dueling on the lead, and earned a respectable figure. He loves running route races, finishing ITM 14 of his 23 attempts. #9 Candy’s Martini was claimed last out by leading trainer/owner combo of Lucarelli/Chad and Josh after running a good comeback race at a mile. It seems like this team is on a mission to stack up wins. Drops down a level in class today, and could be tough if he moves forward from his last effort. #1 Check and Raise closed extremely well to get up for the win in his last out, so tries slightly tougher here, as it’s become clear this horse excels at the mile or longer races. Trainer Manny Ortiz has great numbers with his horses 3rd off the layoff, hitting at 33% with a positive ROI.
Race 9: The Mt. Rainier Stake for older colts and geldings, it’s hard to look past the class of the field, #5 Barkley. Winner of the 2018 Longacre’s Mile, he returned in 2019 to win in his seasonal debut, only to be put away for the remainder of the season. His comeback race of 2020 was a good effort off such a long layoff, but he was slow out of the gate, spotting the field and eventually running 2nd. With that race as a prep, he should be primed for a good effort today on his road back to another Longacre’s Mile attempt. #6 Papa’s Golden Boy is the speed of the race, and may have enough to lead them along until the wire. His front running win this meet was impressive, but faces a more experienced bunch today. #2 Elliot Bay also scored easily in his seasonal debut with a wire job, and looked like he did it easily. Came back to work very quick since that race, and should be fit.
Race 10: This higher level allowance race has some nice up and coming types looking to break into Stakes company. #7 Hard to Deny broke his maiden with a romping victory two back, and returned in n allowance to go off favored. He fought to set the pace with his rivals, but flattened in the lane. Facing winners a second time, he may be more comfortable than his previous. #9 Lochness loves to send it from the gate, and the outside post leaves little choice but to go. The slight cutback to 6 should help this speedball. #1 Igotabooboo has only raced twice, won at first asking, and was bested half a length next out facing winners. The figures both came back strong, as this gelding is looking to further his career and step up against the heavy heads further down the road.
Race 11: The nightcap is a MC $5k, and after a trio of 3rd place finishes this year, I think #3 Magic Mahogany might be ready to graduate. After two decent sprint efforts, he was stretched to a mile last out and ran decent. Cutting back from the route may have this horse sharp enough to get the job done today. #7 Sovereign Nation has shown interest on the front end, and if you throw out the last race, has very competitive figures. Drops slightly in class and retains hot jockey Alex Cruz in the irons. #4 Big Heater has made a jump in speed figures in his recent races, and his back figures from California are also above par for the level. Is also cutting back from the mile race, so should be involved early.
-Good Luck!