Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves baby corn, baby talk, baby oil, and baby races at the Pea Patch. His fiancé is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.
Fade me.
Race Two: 2:18 post – Allowance 51000n2L 1 Mile 3YO
5-2-6-1
This allowance race attracted a pretty salty field full of some familiar faces. #2 Haunt is our 2/1 ML favorite and deservedly so. He ran a clunker in his first attempt on the sod last time out on 6/29/19, but I feel confident in tossing that effort. #6 Hitch will certainly give us some better odds even though he finally graduated last out at Churchill Downs on 6/16/19. If Tyler Baze can get the first jump, he is a real threat. #5 Galindo is sure to get enough pace to set up his running style. He has always been an honest runner that always seems to just miss, so that is of some concern to me, but the drop in class should greatly help his chances.
Race Three: 2:46 post – MSW 50K 1 Mile Turf 2YO
3-6-9-1
The first of today’s baby races isn’t nearly as glamorous as the seventh race on today’s card, but it is still an interesting puzzle. Fourteen horses have been entered for this mile on the turf, yet only ten will run. Ellis Park is notoriously late at posting early scratches, so watch the AEs in this race. If #11 Bodecream draws in, he is good enough and has been gelded since his last start. #6 Lanse Mitan was well-bet in his Ellis Park debut on 6/30/19 and he ran a credible third for Rudolphe Brisset. Any improvement makes him a very logical winner. #3 Spike looks to be the most live of the seven entered FTS. Brad Cox wins at 20% with his FTS and this one has been working great and is bred for the sod. #9 Shanghai Moon is a high-priced baby that should like the sod and Kenny McPeek has put a strong series of workouts into him for his debut. McPeek isn’t very strong with FTS, only winning at 5%, so I am apt to give this one a race.
Race Four: 3:14 post – Allowance 51000n2L 6 F 3YO&Up F&M
7-2-3-1
On paper, this race looks to have a ton of early speed. #3 Vomba has been an improving filly that finally graduated in her fourth start last time out on 5/26/19 at Churchill. She controlled the front end on a sloppy track at Churchill and she should find herself with a similar opportunity today. I normally fade maiden winners in their first effort after graduation day, and today is no exception. Brad Cox drops #2 Irish Mischief into this sprint off of a credible effort against tougher at Churchill on 6/20/19. She should get the first jump on Vomba and it looks like she is the most likely winner. That said, I am going to look for a little bit of a price on the far outside with #7 Urban Insight. She dirtied up her form by running a clunker on 6/22/19 against much better at Churchill Downs. I’m drawing a line through that effort as it was just too bad to be real. For some reason, this filly has fired some head scratchers in her running lines. Charlie LoPresti has put three “tighteners” into her this July and the early pace sets the race up for her running style.
Race Five: 3:42 post – MSW 50K 5 1/2 F Turf 3YO&Up
9-2-12-4
#9 Tohui definitely sets the bar for this turf sprint as he has run two very credible second place races at these conditions. Miguel Mena stays aboard for rarely seen trainer Luis Jurado, who is no joke. I expect a Polaroid today and we probably won’t get any sort of value. #2 Island Storm is the biggest threat of the known runners, but it should be noted he lost to Tohui on 6/15/19. #12 Macho Jack is the most interesting FTS in the field, but he is going to need to draw in off the AEs. Since Ellis is always late with that information, you’ll have to see if he drew in. If so, he looks ready, but there are a few experienced runners in this field that will prove difficult.
Race Six: 4:10 post – Claiming 30000n2L 6 F 3YO&Up F&M
8-7-2-3
I can’t stomach a ML favorite that hasn’t won since breaking its maiden, yet that’s what we have in #2 Bronze Charm. Sure, she’s a consistent filly, but we can do away better than her. #7 Blue Sky in Dixie is the newest shooter in the field and she graduated with ease in her first outing for trainer Norm Casse. Though she debuted in the claiming ranks, I think that speaks more of her pedigree and future broodmare status than her talent. She only needs to improve a touch today to remain undefeated. Norm has worked her steady numerous times since her last start, so I see no reason to discount her chances. Jimmy Graham looks to have had his choice of three fillies in this field and he stayed with #8 Shaharazad. I normally don’t give too much credence to jockey moves as we can never know the politics involved, but Graham bouncing off the ML favorite is a pretty strong angle. Trainer Daniel Peitz places his horses very well and he drops her down to this level for the first time after running against much stronger since her graduation day. Her last race was also much better than it looks on paper and she should get a good closing trip from the outside.
Race Seven: 4:40 post – MSW 50K 7 F 2YO
11-10-2-1
When Dale Romans gives up a Saturday in Saratoga to spend time at the Pea Patch, you know he’s got a live one in #11 Dennis’ Moment. Even though the ML has this $400K purchase at 8/1, it is highly unlikely we are going to get more than 2/1. He was heavily bet in his 6/23/19 Churchill debut before losing jockey Robbie Albarado before the first call, but he looks no worse for wear as he has fired three solid works since his tumultuous first start. In a race with six FTS and no apparent monster, I see no reason why he won’t be a player today. Brian Lynch has a nice-looking $360K Liam’s Map in #10 Sounion. Lynch only hits at 9% with FTS, but this colt has looked very well-intentioned in the morning by firing a string of quality works, including two bullets from the gate. In any other baby race, he’d likely be my top choice. It’s a baby race… watch the tote board for early steam, but I’m sure you’ll see some cooking coming from the #11.
Race Eight: 5:10 post – OC 40000n2x 6 F 3YO&Up
5-3-2-8
Steve Asmussen takes the blinkers off of #5 Principe Guilherme after experimenting with them the past two races. That experiment looks to have dulled his last two efforts, so I am drawing a line through those starts. He looks like he hasn’t improved as a 4YO, but I think the blinkers mask his improvement and I expect a winning effort today. #3 Bye Bye Birdstone ran a huge race here at Ellis Park on 7/5/19. So huge, it may be too big as it was definitely his career best and could result in a bounce. If he is legit, he is a threat.
Race Nine: 5:40 post – MSW 50K 1 1/16 Turf 3YO&Up F&M
1-3-9-10
Corey Lanerie jumps back aboard #3 Amazima for her second career try on the turf. Her first attempt was a solid third place against better at Churchill Downs on 6/23/19. Any improvement in the second start of her current form cycle off of an eight month lay-off makes her dangerous. She completely fits and is a threat to win. #9 Barbadolla hasn’t been this long and she is shipping in from the west coast for trainer Phil D’Amato. We don’t see too much of Phil here at the Pea Patch, so she might be well-intentioned as she has been running against stronger fields at Santa Anita. It’s entirely possible that he is trying to get a win into this daughter of Street Sense. I am drawing a great big line through the last race of #1 Call to Victory as it was on a yielding surface that she didn’t like at all. Any of her other three races beats this field.
Race Ten: 6:10 post – MC 30000 1 Mile Turf 3YO&Up F&M
7-9-4-2
#7 Take Charge Cacky ran a pretty good third place in her only career start for Eddie Kenneally on 6/13/19 at Churchill Downs. It’s interesting that she debuted at the MC $50000 level, so I have to wonder just how good she is. Any improvement made in the last month makes her a threat to win today and they are dropping her some more down the ladder. It’s an interesting move as she looks to have drawn a rather weak field. # 9 Kimberly Frances falls several steps down the claiming ladder for her second career turf start for Dale Romans. She has been away for a couple of months, but her turf pedigree isn’t horrible.