Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves frozen peas, English peas, split-pea soup, and the Pea Patch. His fiancé is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.
Fade me.
Race One: 1:50 post – MC 10000 5 1/2 F Turf 3YO&Up
8-1-5-3
Today’s opener is a pretty weak MC $10K with several horses trying the sod for the first time. #8 Shorely looks to be much the best for trainer Joe Sharp. He debuted as a 4YO art Churchill in a 5.5 turf sprint and showed a little speed before setting the pace on the main track three weeks later. Declan Carroll gets in the irons bringing his bug-weight break with him. He should be controlling speed, but #5 Hermano might have a little something to say about that. Hermano is trying the sod for the first time for Ruis Racing coming in off of a 13 month lay-off. Shelbe Ruis has worked him five times since the beginning of June and she throws the blinkers on. He definitely makes some sense. #1 Western Hills hasn’t run a step in his first two races, finishing a distant last in both races. Owner/breeder/trainer William Bradley has decided to geld him during his ten month lay-off and has definitely worked him into shape. It appears that Bradley has nothing but time invested in this class drop, so it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see him run better and perhaps even change barns.
Race Two: 2:18 post – Claiming 5000n1y 6 F 3YO&Up F&M
1-6-4-8
This low-level claimer is full of hard-knocking mares as every horse except one has more than 35 career starts. #5 Honey C is 12YO and has 123 starts, 27 of them here at the Pea Patch. I can’t use her in this spot, but I thought it was worth noting. #6 Her Kitty is the lone filly in this race and she has been running against much better for her entire career as this is the lowest level she has ever run. Her lone Ellis Park appearance was a little over a year ago and it was a win against much better than these. Her 6/28/19 workout was very respectable, so I am willing to forgive the clunker she threw in her last race. There seems to be a fair amount of early speed in this race and #4 Northern Connect should be the beneficiary of it. She’s pretty consistent and this is surely the weakest field she has seen in quite some time. #1 Desert Thief has made a living out of the sprinting game and she was claimed for much more than today’s price by M and M Racing and trainer Norm McKnight. They don’t make a lot of mistakes in the claiming game and they love to win races. Her last three workouts are amazing for this level and she is always on the engine. No one in this field has her early pace and she should air if she can avoid the bad starts she has gotten in her last two races.
Race Three: 2:46 post – Claiming 5000 5 1/2 Turf 3YO&Up
2-7-5-6
9YO #5 Anteros hasn’t been much since his last win, but his last win was here at Ellis Park eleven months ago at these exact conditions. Interesting. #2 Proven Warrior looks to be lone speed and, honestly, his last five races have been pretty good for this level. I fully expect jockey David Cohen to take the lead, ration him out, and walk the dog. #7 U S Citizen is the 2/1 ML favorite, an even though this 10YO has 39 career turf starts, he hasn’t been on the sod in the running lines on the form. He is certainly consistent and very useful. If it’s not the other Kim Hammond, it’s this Kim Hammond.
Race Four: 3:14 post – OC 15000 1 Mile 3YO&Up F&M
9-4-1-5
Morning scratches have decimated this race leaving only five starters. #4 Zena Rules has been incredibly consistent against the similar company this year and she gets a race with plenty of early speed, thus setting up her running style. She’s dropping a bit in class off her last race, a win at Churchill Downs, but I have to wonder if she took advantage of a sloppy surface in her last. You have to use her, but she will certainly need the early pace to deliver. #9 No Cacha Na also likes the front end, but she has shown to be a little more versatile than the others as she doesn’t need the lead. The Asmussen trainee draws a little better on this strangely-configured trip and she has been beaten better in her last two races. Jimmy Graham climbs back aboard and Asmussen is pretty astute at the claiming game. He won’t mind losing her after collecting three paychecks.
Race Five: 3:42 post – MC 16000 1 Mile Turf 3YO&Up
1-6-12-10
Trainer Joe Sharp drops #6 Penalty Shot, a $100K purchase, to his lowest level, but we have to recognize that this 4YO didn’t debut until this year, so there were surely some problems with health or talent for this one. He made the one mile turf trip in his last race and made the lead before fading down the stretch. A little improvement would result in a win, but we can find more value elsewhere. #10 All in Stew Oui had a rough start and ran a bit of clunker in last race on the dirt. I’m willing to forgive that effort as he has been much better in his turf outings the four previous races. None of them have been winners, but he has been facing much better. This drop in class makes sense and should be beneficial. #1 West of Ireland was working fine in the morning before his debut but he caught some traffic and never really got running. Eddie Kenneally has gelded him and is throwing the blinkers on today. The 7/11/19 work may have been a tester for the hood. It’s a little short, but it inspires confidence. Scratches have allowed #12 Skychief to make this field for trainer Mike Maker. He is dropped to his lowest level and should relish this trip. His form is a little darkened by a race washed off the sod and we may get a little bit of a price being drawn in late.
Race Six: 4:10 post – MSW 50K 6 F 2YO
5-9-12-3
Today’s baby race has eight first time starters, creating quite the puzzle. Of the experienced runners, #9 Samurai Cause has finished second in all three races for trainer Steve Asmussen yet he has never made the lead and has always finished well back. He can certainly win today, but there won’t be much value. #12 Nucky ran a pretty credible race after being dropped into claiming company on 6/20/19 at Churchill Downs. He backed that effort up with a solid 7/6/19 workout as well. Peter Miller surely could have attracted a better jockey for this one, no? #5 Star Martini was a $460K purchase by John Oxley and he is in the capable hands of trainer Mark Casse, who wins at 16% with FTS. The dam has dropped a couple of winners, Pioneerof the Nile babies win at 11% at first asking and the workouts, including three from the gate, are confidence-inspiring. I am a little concerned that Casse gives the nod to a bug boy, but that may be intentional to get a little break in weight. Two other FTS are worth a look. #3 Two by Two has been working great for his debut, but Ian Wilkes doesn’t win too many at first asking. #8 Baudette Blizzard has cranked a few good works as well for Dallas Stewart. Ice Box babies haven’t been very precocious, but he was a huge equity purchase. Keep an eye on the early steam for these two.
Race Seven: 4:40 post – MSW 50K 6 F 3YO&Up
8-3-6-9
This MSW is eerily similar to the previous race as six of the runners are making their first start and two others have raced only once. We have another ML favorite that loves to get second in #3 Nola Win. It looks as though trainer Dallas Stewart has had some difficulty keeping this maiden in racing shape as his running lines are full of breaks. The last five workouts have been very useful and the extra year of maturity is an advantage over the nine 3YOs. Bug boy Declan Carroll gets the mount for the first time allowing a seven pound weight break. Nola Win looks to be the most likely winner and could easily air this field, but make sure you get the price you want. In a race full of questions and mystery, I am basically saying, “if he doesn’t win, it could be any of the others.” #4 Encinitas is another 4YO making his sixth career start against maidens. He has been knocking on the door as well and will be another short price. If this race of unknown entities develops any sort of speed battle, this closer should get the pace he wants to use his closing running style. The problem is that we don’t know how the first time starters will run. All of this said, if a first time starter were to win this race, he would have to be pretty good at first asking because the two previously mentioned horses have run some good figures. This MSW isn’t exactly an easy spot for a debut. Joe Sharp has a $340K purchase in #6 Final Call that has worked credibly in preparation for his debut. Steve Asmussen has an $850K purchase #8 Volatile debuting after a string of quality morning workouts. He is a son of Violence who wins with 22% of his FTS babies. Even the Brad Cox FTS has a shot. This is definitely a race to check out the early tote steam as the word will be out on one of these.
Race Eight: 5:10 post – OC 40000n2x 1 Mile 3YO&Up
9-6-8-4
You know you have an evenly matched race when the ML favorite is made at 4/1 in a nine horse field.. #8 Rare Form gets that distinction and deservedly so. This Dale Romans runner won a nice allowance race at Churchill Downs on 6/20/19 in his last race and that race included a recent Saratoga starter in The Rock Says and the ever-popular Mississippi. Dale Romans has had a hard time getting Rare Form to string a few nice races together, so I’ll play against him. #6 Hunka Burning Love looks to have improved since being claimed by Mike Tomlinson. He has flashed some early speed in his last two races and won against similar level claimers at Churchill Downs on 5/23/19. I think there is a bunch of early speed in this race and he won’t get an easy trip, so I am going to lean in another direction. #9 Limation showed so much early potential for trainer Steve Asmussen as evidenced by his easy win in the Louisiana Super Derby on 9/2/18. Since then, he has been an erratic handful for Asmussen. Limation was finally gelded before this start, a move Steve was likely trying to avoid. I think it does the trick.
Race Nine: 5:40 post – Allowance 51000n1x 5 1/2 F Turf 3YO&Up F&M
6-9-5-8
#5 The Aurelia Factor was bred to love the turf but previous trainer Bob Baffert never got around to trying the sod. Now in Steve Asmussen’s barn, she makes her first attempt on the grass here at the Pea Patch. We don’t have much information to use since the barn change and none of the published workouts show any turf conditioning. She could win, but she will surely be too short of a price to excite us. #6 Dreaming Diamonds has been extremely popular at the claiming box for a number of astute trainers. She is also trying the grass for the first time in her career, but we will surely get a much better price on her. Rayan Gazadar also stays aboard, which is curious, as Asmussen has been giving him a leg up on a lot of his Ellis Park runners. Did Gazadar turn him down for this one? We can draw a line through the last race of #8 Even Beat as it was washed off the turf. Mike Maker has her back in much more familiar conditions and she should come running down the lane. #9 Libby Knows has twice worked nicely for trainer Larry Jones since her narrow second place finish at Churchill on 5/9/19. Her price will likely be short, and for good reason, but she should be respected as she is certainly doing her favorite thing today.