Ellis Park Saturday August 10, 2019
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He hates false claims, claims of foul, and staking claim, but loves claiming races. His fiancée is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.
Fade me.
Race One: 1:50 post – MC 7500 5 1/2 Turf 3YO&Up F&M
1-7-8-4
#8 Northern Heart has been made the curious ML favorite. Sure, she has been running a few steps up the claiming ladder and the class relief could help, but she has mostly been running on dirt. Her 7/14/19 return to turf wasn’t exactly inspiring, either. She has the looks of a very vulnerable favorite. #7 Elizabeth’s Touch has running lines that are the complete opposite of Northern Heat. The Duane Wells runner hasn’t shown much talent sprinting on the dirt until her last race on 7/6/19 where she finally woke up a bit in her first turf attempt. She might not be good enough, but she certainly has a chance. #1 Tay Town has the look of an improving runner as she has taken her steps down the claiming ladder in her last three starts. The gradual improvement is likely more the result of lesser competition rather than actual improvement, but if she takes a slight step forward in her second consecutive turf sprint, she’s the one.
Race Two: 2:18 post – Claiming 5000 6 F 3YO&Up
6-2-5-3
The ML favorite #2 Olympic Smoke has a lot of questions to answer and, at 2/1, I am willing to fade her Indiana running lines, which are clearly superior to most of the others in the race. This looks like owner/trainer Israel Garcia’s first runner at this Ellis Park meet and he brings Rogelio Miranda, another Pea Patch stranger, with him. I must admit that her 7/26/19 looks pretty good for this level, but I would rather take a stand against her. #5 She is Gorgeous has had some recent success and is entered today for the first time off the claim for new owner/trainer Kenneth Miller. Miller is a recent 0/19 first off the claim, so I am not exactly thrilled with that angle, but she could win. I want the known-runner #6 Desert Thief the most. Trainer Norm McKnight has improved this 7YO mare and she won with great ease against similar here at Ellis Park on 7/13/19. Outside posts and early speed are key angles in Ellis Park dirt sprints and this mare has both today.
Race Three: 2:46 post – MC 7500 1 Mile 3YO&Up
3-6-8-2
It looks like owner/trainer Steve Asmussen hasn’t quite figured out #6 Malibu Mo just yet, but neither did previous trainer Brad Cox. He has failed as the favorite in his last two starts and really hasn’t threatened in any of his career races. Asmussen dropping him down the ladder from his claiming price isn’t a strong angle to back. #8 Salty Caramel is an interesting first time starter for owner/trainer Joe Sharp. I would watch the tote board for any type of steam on this colt as Sharp has put ten morning workouts into this one in preparation for his debut. #3 Southern Humor wanted no part of his 7/27/19 turf effort at Belterra Park. He was caught down the lane in his previous start on 7/6/19 here at Ellis Park against foes one step up the ladder. Returning to Declan Carroll also gets the apprentice weight break, which should help a little.
Race Four: 3:14 post – Claiming 5000 1 Mile 3YO&Up
5-2-3-1
Trainer Norm McKnight’s #2 Malibu Wood is the 2/1 ML favorite, which makes perfect sense, but there are a lot of concerns. He is dropping this 7YO gelding to the lowest Ellis Park level, which greatly concerns me. McKnight may be trying to steal a win here, but horse has been collecting checks recently against better competition. Why the drop? #5 Pocket Personality is running for the first time for owner/trainer Steve Asmussen since being claimed on 6/30/19 here at Ellis Park. Asmussen is switching tactics and moving from a sprint to a route, which should suit this grandson of Tapit. Asmussen has had this horse before, so he is familiar with him.
Race Five: 3:42 post – MC 16000 1 1/16 Mile Turf 3YO&Up
3-9-1-4
This MC $16K looks wide open on paper as several horses as five horses are taking a claim drop. #1 Front Page has been made the very tepid ML favorite, but we can poke a few holes in his resume. Though his figures certainly make sense, he is trying the sod for the first time. I suppose the drop in class will help the cause, but the Borel family hasn’t been able to do much with this one since they claimed him on 5/30/19. Methinks they are grasping at straws here. #9 Zoomer deserves a long look on the class drop alone, but his recent workouts suggest that he may be improving and he should improve on his second turf attempt. #3 Professional returns to the same conditions as his last race where he finished a solid second to Skychief, who won the next time out. His morning works indicate that he remains sharp.
Race Six: 4:10 post – Claiming 30000 7 F 3YO&Up
6-2-4-3
This compact field is very evenly-matched, so get your price. #1 Concord Fast scratched out as the 2/1 ML favorite. #2 Italian Charm has always been popular at the claiming box and rightfully so. Though he has been changing hands for less money than today, he has always been an honest and consistent sort. He had a bit of a rough trip at this level at the same conditions here at Ellis Park on 7/14/19 and should be considered in the mix today. #6 Unbridled Outlaw is returning to the exact conditions of his first start for the Diodoro barn on 7/14/19. Diodoro is throwing the blinkers on as this one was wrangled down the stretch in what appeared to be a bit of an inattentive drive.
Race Seven: 4:40 post – MSW 50K 1 Mile Turf 2YO Fillies
8-3-7-6
Fourteen horses, half of them first time starters, were entered for this baby race for fillies on the turf, so watch the early scratches for the actual runners as the field will only have ten. Only three of the main field runners have any experience, and none of them look like monsters. If I had to choose, I suppose I would land on #6 Witez as this Ian Wilkes runner is getting first-time Lasix. It does concern me that she didn’t take any money in her 6/20/19 Churchill Downs debut, but her workouts since that race fit. The Brendan Walsh Godolphin-owned #3 Extra Attention looks very well-intentioned for this debut. Walsh only wins at 5% with FTS, but this Medaglia d’Oro baby should love the turf and has been working like crazy. #7 Rain Dance is almost a carbon-copy of Extra Attention. Trained by Walsh and working great in the morning, the only thing missing is the Godolphin blue. #8 Jezebel’s Kitten is trained by 20% FTS trainer Brad Cox and it appears Shaun Bridgmohan is only riding her today at the Pea Patch. I’ll be stunned if this race isn’t won by a FTS, so watch the tote board for any steam.
Race Eight: 5:10 post – Claiming 30000n2L 1 1/16 Turf 3YO&Up
6-4-3-2
Talk about a field of head-scratchers, this race is populated with them. #4 Zing Zang has been facing much better than these, but owner/trainer Steve Asmussen has only gotten one win in 17 starts out of this $300K gelded son of Tapit. #5 Moonster scratched out of the race leaving an even thinner field of question marks. #6 Briar Jumper has the fewest questions and is dropping a bit in class today, but he continues to do his thing: route on the turf. Familiarity often breeds contempt, but, in this case, it should finally get another photo on the wall.
Race Nine: 5:40 post – MSW 50K 6 F 3YO&Up
9-10-12-5
Seven first time starters fill half of this field of sprinters, making this race a bit of a challenge. One of the new shooters will have to be somewhat special to beat #5 Mr Dumas, #10 Encinitas, or #12 Nola Wind. All three of these experienced horses only need to improve a touch to graduate today, and I prefer Encinitas of these three. That said, I am shooting my shot with #9 Rayo de Luz. This son of Shackleford, who’s babies win at 12% first asking, was a $200K purchase and Asmussen has been firing gate works into this one for a while. He has the looks of a very well-intentioned firster.
Race Ten: 6:10 post – Allowance 51000n1x 5 ½ F Turf 3YO&Up F&M
10-2-6-1
#2 Focused is a hanger that loves to pick up checks, but she has yet to assert herself down the lane. I expect the same today, though she could certainly prove me wrong. #1 Even Beat also makes a ton of sense as she has been knocking at the door in her recent turf sprints. The post posts of Focused and Even Beat will be a detriment to these two. #6 Fightress made a valiant effort to walk the dog in her last race, at these exact conditions, on 7/13/19 here at Ellis. She had an inside post and set some solid fractions in that race before getting passed late. There is more speed signed on for today’s affair, so I expect Fightress to have a similar result as her last. #10 Frond has every right to surprise them all today. She will stalk from the outside and should get a nice run down the lane. She had a bit of a troubled trip last time out, so improvement is certainly within reason.