Welcome to the final Thursday of the Del Mar Summer 2019 meet. It’s been a fun summer, and I’ve enjoyed writing for The Daily Gallop. Last week we broke even on the top picks, but we did highlight a few long shot winners in our underneath plays. The wins were a bit tougher to come by, but the top pick was a perfect 7/7 in the money. We are still maintaining a positive ROI so far for the meet, so let’s finish the summer strong!
Last week: 29% (2/7 win, 7/7 ITM) $1.91 ROI per $2 win bet ($14 wagered, $13.40 returned)
Del Mar 2019: 40% (14/35 win, 27/35 ITM) $2.43 ROI per $2 win bet ($70 wagered, $85.20 returned)
Race 1: 61/2 Furlongs Clm 25000
Picks: 5-7-3-6
We begin the final Thursday of the meet with a group of 7 going out in an open claiming race for $25,000. #5 Denman’s Call is a worthy favorite after blasting a weaker group of $16,000 claimers last out en route to recording the highest last out speed figure in the field today. This cleverly named 6-year-old gelding has loads of back class compared to this field, and it appeared he rediscovered a bit of his old form last time out. The Glatt barn has done very well this meet, and Baze keeps the mount after giving a good ride. Has the versatility and talent to win this. #7 Cat’s Blame is only 1 for 15 on a fast track, but he has racked up numerous in the money finishes and now finally gets a drop to a level where he should be more competitive. Two races back, he ran a good third, beaten less than 2 lengths to Spokane Eagle who went on to win a $32,000 claiming race by open lengths. In his last effort, he had to steady at the 3/8ths pole as he went up against highly regarded King Jack (ran second in the Shared Belief Stakes on 8/25 to Improbable) and did not embarrass himself. Off the pace types have done well on the main at Del Mar lately and coupled with the class drop he could be dangerous. #3 Facts Matter has won 4 of his last 5 starts and has been through several different barns this year. He makes his first start for the red-hot Hess today and retains the services of Bejarano, who had a few choices in this spot. Has never been quite able to win at this level in the past but must respect the fact that Hess elects to run him for an increase in claiming price despite being out of ‘claiming jail.’ #4 Top Brass is the second Glatt entry, and he enters with a record of 6 for 11 on a fast track, conditions he should get today. Fired fresh off the layoff and ran decently whilst breaking slow last out, he can certainly improve in his third start of the year and get a piece of this in an open race.
Race 2: 1 Mile [F] Mdn 61k
Picks: 6-3-1-5
#6 Bristol Bayou received a rough education in her debut, breaking inwards and having to steady, taking dirt, and learning to pass horses. I was impressed with the way she ran that day, and I think that start will greatly benefit her here. She was on a very dead rail that Saturday in August, where the winners came from well out into the middle of the track. The 3/5 Baffert favorite in that race had the rail and faded badly to 4th, giving a good indication of track conditions, and I’m convinced Bristol Bayou could have been closer had she gotten wide into the stretch. The place runner from that field, Greg’s Diva, came back to win a maiden special weight race in her next start. Note the fourth-place horse was over 3 lengths clear, and Espinoza stays aboard. #3 Gingham makes her 2-year-old debut for the silver haired magician Bob Baffert. This filly sold for $420,000 as a yearling in the Keeneland September sale last year. Quality Road gets 13% winners first time out, and Baffert typically excels with juveniles, especially at Del Mar. He is 33% with first time starters, and 15 of 24 with juvenile debut runners the past two summers at Del Mar. The only knock could be that Baffert typically does better when debuting runners at a sprint; he is a surprising 0/9 with 2-year-olds making their debut at a route the past 2 years on the Del Mar main track. Pedigree suggests the distance shouldn’t be an issue, and if the Baffert money shows up and she ticks to odds-on favoritism there’s a good chance she’s your winner. That being said, I’m going to try to beat her at a likely very short price. #1 Dolci draws the rail for the ice-cold McCarthy barn. This filly took some money in her debut but never really threatened the leaders before fading. Not sure that turf was ever going to be her preferred surface, she makes the switch the main track and gets meet leading rider Flavian Prat up, who gets off the #2 Paige Anne to ride here today. McCarthy typically does far better with second out runners, so I expect this one to have a better showing today.
Race 3: 6 Furlongs Clm 12500
Picks: 7-2-6-1
Race 3 brings us an opportunity to perhaps exploit a weak favorite. I’m going with #7 Puriano, who is making his third start off a lengthy layoff for Mark Glatt, a move he excels with firing at 25%. This horse ran a good race first off the layoff at Santa Anita, then got the dreaded rail draw last out while in against tougher where he contested the pace on the inside before weakening. I expect him to be fully cranked in his 3rd start back, and he does get a slight drop in class down to the $12,500 level. Stalkers and pressers have fared exceptionally well at Del Mar lately, so I’m going to take a shot that he sits a great stalking trip on the outside and is able to get the job done. #2 Excavation makes his first start after being claimed by the sharp claiming barn of Jonathan Wong. This 5-year-old gelding has run well at lower levels, but needs to prove he can handle the class hike here. Velez gets the mount, who was aboard for the win 2 back, and cutbacks have been an excellent angle at Del Mar all meet as this one turns back from a mile to a sprint. By the long-fused Mineshaft, stamina shouldn’t be an issue, and I love the addition of blinkers. Expect this one to be more forwardly placed and tough to run down in the stretch. #6 Rick’s Dream has never run a bad race until his last effort when in over his head, but he often seems to settle for minor awards rather than win. Laid up for over a year, he didn’t appear to miss a step, winning in his first race back and just missing as the favorite 2 races back. The winner of his last, Fashionably Fast, went on to repeat in an optional claiming race on 8/25. The connections have had a tough meet, but this one merits consideration on ability, at least for the underneath of exotics. #1 Best Two Minutes ran second and third against tougher in his last 2 starts, but it’s unlikely that made those who bet him at odds-on favoritism feel any better about it. This veteran appears to have lost a step since leaving the Knapp barn earlier this spring, and it’s tough to endorse him at a short price after factoring in the rail draw and declining form.
Race 4: 11/16 Mile. (Turf) Clm 25000
Picks: 9-7-4-1
#9 Moonlight Drive just missed last time at this level when closing strongly but just running out of racetrack. That was his second effort off long layoff for a horse who appears to have some soundness issues given all the breaks in running lines. Appears Mulhall’s patience has been rewarded, as he finally seems fit and willing to run after the claim back in June of 2018. Extremely versatile type has the ability to sit near the pace or be a deep closer, and he gets turf specialist Martin Garcia up. The show horse in his last race was nearly 5 lengths back, and the extra 1/16th of a mile he gets here should hit him right between the eyes. The pick. #7 Zip the Monkey nearly sprung the upset last out at 14-1, running second by less than a length. Pereira hasn’t had a great meet (5%), but he has won on this horse before and the horse owns a win over this course and at this distance. He is competitive on speed figures and does his best running on the Del Mar grass. #4 Lifeline saw an extended layoff from May 2018 to May 2019. He was claimed in his first race back when entered for a tag in an optional claiming $40,000 race. Rarely do you see Sadler and Hronis claim a horse off such a layoff, so clearly they saw something they liked. 5-year-old son of Tapit has improved in each of his starts after the layoff, and it appears Sadler has him going the right direction. Needs to improve again to compete here, but his 4-year-old form indicates he is capable of better. #1 Magic Musketier showed very little in his last effort, but that was a surprisingly salty bunch for a $40,000 claiming race. This horse was competing at levels much higher than he faces today throughout his 3-year-old season, and he drops into the lowest claiming level of his career today. This dead closer needs an honest pace, a situation he hasn’t had in his last handful of races. However, there are a few speedster types entered in this contest, and with the right pace setup look for him late.
Race 5: 51/2 Furlongs [F] MC 32000
Picks: 10-6-3-13
The price likely won’t be very pretty, but #10 Biddy Duke looms one of the likeliest winners of the day. Following 3 in the money finishes against maiden special weight company, she was transferred to the Hess barn and dropped in for a tag last time out. She had a rough break in that outing, and this front-running filly found herself at the back of the pack early on. She handled that well, learning to take dirt pass horses, but was no match for freakish runaway winner Leocotha who posted a 91 Beyer that day. That is tied for the 4th highest Beyer of any 2-year-old, male or female, so far this year. It doesn’t appear there are any monsters here, so Biddy Duke should have her way with this bunch. #6 Fran’s Empire ran a couple of respectable races in straight maiden company, and now she takes the biggest class drop in racing down to the maiden claiming level. Vann Belvoir has excellent stats with this move, firing at 21% on the drop, and Bejarano retains the mount. If the top choice falters in a pace duel or fails to break, Fran’s Empire appears the main threat. #3 Golden Goddess hasn’t fared well in either of her starts to date, but she did flash speed in both efforts, and in both tries she had slightly wide trips where she had to cover a good deal of ground. Takes a big class drop here and is one of the more interesting long shots, although anything beyond the top pick is admittedly reaching a bit.
Race 6: 11/16 Mile. (Turf) [F] Clm 50000
Picks: 5-3-8-9
#5 Posh Holly takes a sharp drop in class from $80,000 optional claimers down into $50,000 straight claiming today. This Irish bred filly showed promise in her stateside debut, running a good third in the Juvenile Filly Turf Stakes at Del Mar last year and going on to romp impressively to break her maiden. She’s found some tough company lately, going against the likes of subsequent G2 winner Mucho Unusual, and KP Slickem. D’Amato is 29% with horses dropping in for a tag for the first time, and this one appears to have a substantial class edge over the field. #3 Red Bunting is a horse previously highlighted on the August 1 analysis; she ran a great race that day at a big price of 23-1 to finish third despite taking a bump at the top of the stretch. Talamo stays on board for his father-in-law, who is firing at 31% this meet, and this one should take a step forward out of that effort second off the layoff. #9 Muthhila ran a deceptively strong race last out, as she pressed quick fractions for over half a mile, tried to take back after the 3/8th pole to rate a bit more, and then found herself behind a wall of horses with nowhere to go. I’d recommend watching that race, as it was a peculiar ride. Regardless, that race was dominated by closers, and she ran a great race to hold on for a narrowly beaten 4th. Not sure she was ever winning that day, but a higher finish was likely with a better trip. She now gets to break from the outside in a race without much obvious pace, and if she can repeat that effort she could be dangerous. #8 Lucky Stepper had a brutal start last race where she was squeezed right out of the gate and found herself 14 lengths last. Facing winners for the first time is never easy, and when you have a compromised start it gets even more daunting, so her last race can be forgiven. She comes in here at a more realistic level for a trainer who does well with claimers. Could be live at a nice price.
Race 7: 61/2 Furlongs. [F][S] OC 20000 n1x
Picks: 8-2-5-4The last race of the day brings us a group of 8 in an optional claiming n1x affair. #8 Ruby Bradley sits at 8-1 on the morning line, but I would not be surprised if this roan ultimately goes off much shorter by post. D’Amato has curiously spotted this horse in a number of juvenile stakes races despite being a maiden, and ultimately he was rewarded when this one broke through two back in the Melair Stakes. She found the going too tough last out when against promising 3-year-olds Hollywood Hills and Sneaking Out. She likely beat a stronger while breaking her maiden than she catches here, and she owns the right run style for the way the track has played lately. Should be able to run them down with any type of fair pace up front. #2 D’s Lovely Sophia is undefeated through two starts, and it’s difficult to leave her off any tickets. The last effort was very visually impressive, as she stalked a slow pace and then cleared and drew off like a good thing. Owns a win over the local track and won last out as if the extra 1/16th of a mile won’t be a problem at all. #5 Quit Kvetching was an impressive debut winner at long odds and then ran a strong race last out in her first effort against winners. The pace was slow that day, and only the magic of Flavian Prat managed to get the favorite home from off the pace while the pacesetters ran second and third. She was beaten by #3 Wishful in that race, but Wishful had a much better trip. I’d prefer the lightly raced and improving 3-year-old to take another step forward under Drayen who could turn the tables with a better trip. #4 Wishful is one who you can leave off tickets at your own risk. She has been competitive at this level in every start, and Prat has ridden her to the winner’s circle before. Would have liked to have seen her get the job done 2 back as the odds-on choice, and there is a real concern that she might truly be a 5.5-6-furlong specialist. Tough to ever go against Prat, but at a short price I like the upside better on others.