Welcome to the third Thursday of the Del Mar summer meet. Last week (my first week writing) we had an outstanding day, with the top pick winning 5 of 7 races, including giving out the late Pick 5 sequence with the #1 selection in each race. That would have been a $188 payoff on a $0.50 bet if you only played my top selections for the minimum wager amount. I almost exclusively play horizontal bets (pick 4s and pick 5s) using a few of my top selections, but for the sake of tracking ROI, I’ll only include the win percentage of top pick with the corresponding ROI in this column. If there is interest for suggested horizontal tickets please comment and let me know!
Last week: 71% (5/7 win, 6/7 ITM)) $19.40 ROI (238%) ($14 wagered, $33.40 returned)
Del Mar 2019: 71% (5/7 win, 6/7 ITM) $19.40 ROI (238%) ($14 wagered, $33.40 returned)
Race 1: 6½ Furlongs. Clm 20000n3L
Picks: 4-5-7-6
We start the day with an evenly matched group of 8 in a claiming race for nonwinners of 3 lifetime. #4 Vander Kelen is the lukewarm 5/2 favorite. The 4-year-old gelding is a versatile runner, able to win on the lead or from off the pace, and has enough tactical speed to make his own trip. Finishing third against tougher in his last two races in starter allowance company, the drop to claiming N3L ranks makes him a major threat here. Cedillo and Glatt are 3/7 when teaming up, including a perfect 2 for 2 at this meet. #5 An Ocala Ten was very promising as a 2-year-old and sent straight to the G2 Best Pal stakes after breaking his maiden. Something went wrong there, and he headed to the bench for a nearly 2-year layoff. He may have needed a race first off the bench, and his last was a much better effort. No reason to think he won’t keep improving, but he truly may not want much longer than 5.5f. #7 Satori has not done much racing in his career, with only 4 starts to his name despite being a 5-year-old, but he has managed to snag 2 wins within those 4 starts. He looked all but beaten in his last race after setting a contested pace between horses and being passed in the turn, but dug in super gamely to retake the lead deep in the stretch. #6 Union Rebel took a while to figure things out, needing 16 tries to break his maiden, but appears to be improving a bit since switching back to dirt and going to the Hanson barn. Needs others to misfire but has an outside shot.
Race 2: 5 Furlongs (Turf) Clm 40000
Picks: 4-2-6-1
#4 Rocky Policy makes her Del Mar debut for Andrew Lerner. Lerner may not start a ton of horses, but he spots his stable very well, hitting at 32% this year. He was 2 for 3 in turf races at Del Mar last year, and is already 1 for 4 (3/4 ITM) at the summer meet so far. Ignore the G3 stakes that was washed off the turf and this mare fits, especially given the class drop from allowance/optional claiming into straight claiming today. #2 G Q Covergirl projects to be the one to catch early. After winning 3 of her first 4 starts on dirt, the connections curiously switch her to turf, where she has since gone 1 for 8 (6 for 8 hitting the board). Claimed last out by O’Neill, she enters here in the open claiming ranks for the first time. While hard to fully endorse as she has flopped as chalk in her last 4 races, she can be somewhat forgiven as she was keeping some tough company. Third off the layoff and now with a new barn, look for her early and see if she can hang on late. #6 Point Hope makes her fourth start here in the US after being beaten by a few of today’s rivals in her last few races. Her US debut was a respectable third, but she has trended downwards in form since then. Cutting back to a sprint after the failed route experiment and entered for a tag for the first time, this filly must be respected due to connections, but would need to find her overseas form to compete here.
Race 3: 1 Mile Mdn 61k
Picks: 6-4-5-3
#6 Scarlet shows up as the somewhat surprising 9/5 morning line favorite despite being beaten by 2 of today’s opponents. After failing to show much in her first two races, she appeared to wake up when going long last out, fading late to lose by slightly over a length after setting an honest pace. Bejarano sticks, and second time routing is often a great improvement angle for young horses. She has the pedigree for a router, and I love the series of 6-furlong stamina building workouts after fading in her June 9th race. Dangerous. #4 Song of the Night may be overlooked due to a pair of losses at lesser known tracks, but the speed figures and thorographs for this 3-year-old have come back strong. Bred to run all day, she makes her first start for Golden Gate ace trainer Jonathan Wong and picks up the services of hall of fame rider Mike Smith. Smith doesn’t often ride in maiden races at this stage of his career, so him landing on this horse indicates she could very well be live. #5 Pink Scatillac has not shown much in her first 2 starts to date on the turf, but the results aren’t as bad as they seem. Despite a turfy pedigree, she is a half sister to G1 Cotillion winner It Tiz Well, suggesting perhaps dirt will be her preferred surface. She was clearly too keen last out in blinkers, setting wicked fractions in a race that completely fell apart, and the far outside draw did her no favors with the relatively short run into the first turn. Hood comes off here, and if she takes to the dirt, she could be dangerous at a price. #3 Loving Moment is a logical contender, but at a short price she might be one to play against. A repeat of her race 2 back likely wins this, but she was badly beaten 22 lengths as an odds on favorite last out. Los Alamitos is a unique track, so perhaps she did not care for the tight turns, but tough to keep giving this one chances. D’Amato barn has been cold this meet, only 1 for 25, which does not inspire confidence.
Race 4: 1 Mile (Turf) [F]Clm 50000
Picks: 3-6-9-5
#3 Sophie Antoinette makes her debut for Wong after being privately acquired from Rodolphe Brisset. While she has not been keeping the strongest company and took a while to break her maiden, I love the progression this horse has shown through her 4-year-old season. She has continued to improve on thorographs and paired her last top, indicating a likely move forward. She is somewhat pace dependent, and Del Mar has been atypically kind to early speed on the lawn lately, but hopefully the addition of blinkers gets her more involved early. Making her first start in California at Del Mar, she is eligible for the ship and win program, meaning she receives an additional 40% of whatever purse money she would normally stand to receive. This incentivizes trainers to have their shippers ready to fire, as the bonus is only available in their first local start. #6 Miss Flawless makes her debut for Peter Eurton. Overmatched in two G3 stakes, she ran a decent third and fourth in her last two races and now gets the second leading turf rider of the meet on board. The Miller barn was ice cold the final months of Santa Anita post-race day medication changes, so she could be better than her last few indicate. #9 Red Bunting can’t be as bad as she looked in her last two. The granddaughter of Galileo, her US debut sprinting was likely nothing more than a leg stretcher, and she came up empty in her last race where the first two finishers were 1-2 around the track for the entire race. Gets significant class relief, and Talamo retakes the mount for his father-in-law Ellis.
Race 5: 5½ Furlongs Clm 20000
Picks: 8-4-2-6
#8 Time for Suzzie gets reunited with Bejarano for this 5.5 furlong contest. A favorable outside draw, she should sit a good stalking trip just off the leaders and make her move turning for home. Still trying to find her niche on the class ladder, she won each of the last 2 times she was dropping to the claiming ranks of 20000 and 25000. #4 Naughty Tiger has muddied form in recent starts, and the quarter horse race is likely to scare bettors away. However, this horse was very impressive in breaking her maiden last year and ran in nothing but nongraded stakes races in her next 4 starts, winning one of them. She is a perfect 1 for 1 at this track and 2 for 2 at this distance, and now gets reunited with Fuentes who was aboard for both victories last year. Could prove tough to run down on the front end. #2 Bam Bams Lil River figures to attract support due to her early speed and consistency, but she has been beaten by a number of today’s foes multiple times. All due respect to Knapp, who is a very good 21% first off the claim, but one has to question if he can turn this filly around when Hollendorfer could not. She does return to her best distance of 5.5 furlongs, and Asa Espinoza sticks after the barn change, so perhaps her fortunes will change today.
Race 6: 13/8 Mile (Turf) OC 40000n1x
Picks: 6-5-4-7
#6 Unapologetic is the top selection in this lengthy turf marathon. With 2 wins at this distance and other wins up to a mile and a half, he is one of the few horses in this field for whom the distance should not pose a challenge. Ever an honest horse, his last two efforts can be excused, as he was chasing slow paces going at a distance shorter than his best. The April 28th optional claiming race was loaded with stakes types, as Marckies Water went on to win the G2 Charlie Wittingham and run second in the G2 Eddie Read stakes. Stretching back out to 11 furlongs against easier competition should help him find his way back to the winner’s circle. #5 Twentytwentyvision looms a threat due to the likelihood of him inheriting an easy lead due to a distinct lack of early pace. The 8-year-old gelding’s best days are likely behind him, and I truly don’t think he wants to go this far, but if Bejarano can get him to relax out front and walk the dog he could steal this race. #4 Red King is in career form right now after going to the D’Amato barn, getting his first graded stakes placing last out when third in the San Juan Capistrano at Santa Anita. By strong turf sire English Channel and out of an AP Indy dam, the 5-year-old chestnut should be able to run for days. However, his one run style will likely leave him with a lot to do turning for home and puts him at a distinct disadvantage in this paceless affair. D’Amato has been ice cold this meet, and Red King is winless in 5 starts at Del Mar. He’s a logical contender, but one of the more vulnerable favorites.
Race 7: 1 Mile [F]MC 20000
Picks:
The final race of the day is a rough one, dipping all the way down to the maiden claiming 20000 level. #7 Gallantlystreaming is the tepid top selection. At these low levels, horses often struggle to pass, leading to a higher percentage of wire to wire winners than other class levels. Despite not threatening in her first two starts on dirt, she got bold on the lead when stretched out last race and was only caught late on a day when stalkers had an advantage and no horse went gate to wire all day. In this uninspiring field, hard to ignore Miller and his incredible 42% win rate this meet. #1 Cat’s Desire has improved in each of her last 3 starts, and seems to be on the right track since being stretched out to 8 furlongs. It’s worth noting that in each of her last 3 races she set or pressed very fast paces, so she brings a lot of early foot to the table here with the rail draw. There is some other speed here, and after going 0 for 10 it’s fair to stop giving her chances for a barn having a tough year, but one more move forward puts here in the mix. #9 Archana is an obvious contender. This daughter of Into Mischief was a nonthreatening third last out, but ran well pressing a fast pace in her only other dirt race, finishing second as the odds-on favorite. Wong is still searching for his first win at Del Mar this meet, and has a decent chance here in a weak field. Running poorly in both turf tries, #4 Hilltop Harmony was a well beaten second in her only start on dirt. Maybe dirt is her preferred surface so far; in this field full of hopeless horses, one could do worse than to take a flier on a lightly raced horse by a strong sire making her second attempt on dirt.