Del Mar 8/10
Early Pick 5 (main ticket): 1 / 4,7,8/ 1,3,5,6,7/ 2,5,6,8/ 1,5,8 ($90)
Best Bet: Race 3: WPS #7 Power Source 6/1
Race 1: 5.5F MSW $61k 2YO
Projection: 1 single.
Nothing fancy here, you have one of Baffert’s top 2YO’s in against a bunch of low % first time out 2YO trainers. Would be surprised if we get better than 3/5, but #1 Garth has been super impressive in the mornings, and has been paired up with Eight Rings (who won debut impressively) on some works. This son of Into Mischief and 2x SW Country Star, this could be one to watch, the only question is how easy does he do it today.
Race 2: 5.5F on Dirt OC50k 2YO’s
Projection: 7-4-8
The Luis Mendez vs. Peter Miller challenge here as each have 2 entries, and the #1 Miss Fraulein was claimed away from Mendez by Miller for $50k last out following a10 length victory. Time for the race was not great, actually the second slowest at the distance over the first 2 weeks, so would caution putting too much emphasis on the 10 length victory. Will be playing against both Miller’s, the likely fav’s as I simply don’t see value in them, and with the odds on single in leg 1, this is where I will take a shot against. The other Miller, #3 El Tigre Terrible who won here on opening week against a weak field amongst MDCLM’ers where none were claimed and he came home slow. The trip notes make it sound like a rough trip, but after a bump early got to an easy lead and was never headed. I think we could see a lot of speed in here battling for the lead, and I know its been tought to make up ground in the stretch, I am counting on Prat to have #7 Drippin Sauce within a couple of lengths at the top of the stretch and to blow by tiring pace horses late. Will also use #4 DK’s Crown for Mendez, who is 2-4 following a win and this horses figures are right there with the Miller’s but will get far more value. #8 Next Flight, owned by Gary Barber who also has the #1, has exited 2 straight races that have produced a total of 3 next out winners, and should find himself right off the pace setters here. At 12-1, not a price I would leave off this ticket.
Race 3: 1M Turf, 2YO Fs, MSW 61k
Projection: 7-6-1-3-5
The two Irish invaders actually hooked up against each other on June 15th in Limerick where #7 Power Source was 9-1 and had a much more adventurous trip than the 25-1 #5 Drasario, yet you see the later as a short price here. Will be using both horizontally, but also betting #7 here in WPS and Exacta bets. Lerner looking for his first 2YO victory and works have been solid since coming over. Will also use the Rockingham Ranch/Miller import #6 Billy Bats who put up back to back 15’s on Thorograph and has been training very strong with evidence of late kick. #1 French Rose for Desormeaux squared. We know Keith is patient so the results of the first two starts don’t concern me especially when you see who beat her (Amalfi Sunrise (possibly the top 2YO filly in the country) and Comical. Now, Keith wheels back on short rest for this one, could be sitting on a breakthrough performance. Finally, also including the Simon Callahan/ Kaleem Shah price here with #3 Old Trafford who is well bred with versatile mare Tres Belle and rookie Stallion Bayern (who you know is special to Shah).
Race 4: 5.5F on Dirt, CLM16k NL2
Projection: 8-2-6-5
Wide open claiming dirt sprint event here where I will use four. Top pick is #8 CA Dreamer who was dropped to this level last out at Pln, where she got a very wide trip and finished 2nd as the odds on fav. Maintains velocity well through the race, so should be close and could grind away at the pace here. I do have some concern at he lack of potential pace in this one, where the two likely pace setters #2Winsinfashion and #5 Champagne Honey are must uses on this course. Finally, #6 Hopscotchy is interesting for Steve Sherman who ran in this race 10 days back (against slightly better) but had a tough start and wide trip. Fits here today.
Race 5: 1M Turf OC62k
Projection: 1-8-5
Taking a shot here with #1 Mr. Roary off a 14 month layoff, where he was claimed for $62k. Not usually a good sign, but like the string of works for Mullins who can win off the break and really like the class and running style for this one. At 10-1, if he returns anywhere close to the former version of himself there is huge value. #8 Acker is first off the claim for Miller and Rockingham after claiming on opening day for $62k. That race, won impressively by United was against a good group and solid time, where here it appears to be a softer bunch with more question marks with some of the long layoffs. #5 Andesh comes in off a 9 month layoff and has been working on the grass in the mornings. These drills have been noted that he is doing it easy with lots left in the tank, so could see him jump up here for his 4 YO debut and first as a gelding.
Highlight Race of the Day: Race 8- Grade 2, $200k Best Pal Stakes for 2YO’s
Talented group in here in what is a key prep for the Del Mar Futurity. The #1 Wrecking Crew won here impressively in July, as this $875k purchase for Rockingham Ranch and Peter Miller overcame a poor start to win impressively. I don’t see any way that 4-1 stands, may end up your favorite here with the scratch of Schrodinger, and is a must use for me. Where you may be able to find some value in this race is with #5 Collusion Illusion who also won over this course impressively this year. Glatt and Talamo have been quite the connection in 2019, and looks like Glatt has a good one here as it was an impressive closing kick against a slow pace that got him the victory in debut amongst tough company. Fast final 1/8 so no concerns on the extra distance here today.
Really like #7 Hello Bubbles in the finale today. Will be playing the 1,5/ 7 Double pretty heavy.