Del Mar Racing Analysis — Friday, July 19, 2019, by Paul Hundley

Hello everyone and welcome to the first Friday of the Del Mar Summer Meet! We have an 8 race card that starts at 7pm EDT(4pm PDT) so let’s get to it!


RACE 1: 7-3
We start off with a maiden claimer for 2 year olds in for $50K tags. 7-LITTLE CENTS is a FTS for Bill McClean, who is 14% FTS +$2.01 ROI, 17% with debaters in maiden claimers with an ROI +$3.06. Sire Goldencents  has stayed hot hitting 18% FTS. 3-Heraclitus is a FTS for Simon Callaghan, who is 34% so far this year. 17% with FTS, 29% maiden claiming. The concern here is that the horse was purchased at a 2 year old in training sale 3 months ago for $75K, and now entered for $50K? 


RACE 2: 5-6
5-MASON DIXON tries routing for 2nd time in career, first on hopefully a fast track. Won his debut at Del Mar then tried the Grade 2 Best Pal where he ran into Instagrand. Thankfully there aren’t any Instagrands in here. 6-Bitter Ring Home drops back in for tag after 3 unsuccessful tries vs starter allowance company which came after breaking maiden in MC $20K. Neil Drysdale 31% third off the layoff. 


RACE 3: 4-11-8
We go back to the turf for this Cal bred Optional Claimer here. 4-FANTASY HEAT won debut at the 5 furlongs distance in MSW, was stretched out to 1 Mile where she was pulled up last month but has come back to show two works. 11-Sunrise Royale has been 3rd and 2nd her first two tries on turf and would be no surprise to contend again today. Will be coming from off the pace. 8-Miss Ricochet comes in off a win at distance but facing winners for first time. Could be on the early lead. 


RACE 4: 2-6
2-FIGHTING MAD was no match vs Covfefe and others last out in Miss Preakness two months ago but think she is still plenty talented. Broke maiden in debut here at Del Mar and should either be on lead or right on the leader early on. 6-Spend Spend Spend was 2nd last out vs this level as the 6-5 favorite but will probably offer a bit more value today with Fighting Mad in here as probable favorite. Brian Koriner 38% with beaten favorites. Only try at Del Mar was an almost 5 length win. 


RACE 5: 11-3-13
Big field for this Optional Claimer, going with 11-RAYANA, who was a disappointment last out vs level at 2-1, but that was going 5 furlongs. Broke maiden in debut at 1 Mile going gate to wire last September here, so hoping return to Del Mar and routing plus being sharper 2nd off the layoff does the trick. Baffert 33% taking Blinkers off. Baffert and Joe Talamo are 7 of last 13 together. 3-Strike At Dawn was also a disappointment at this level last month but was first start in Southern California circuit after being in the Chad Brown barn. Richard Baltas 18% second off the layoff. 13-Out Of Balance needs a scratch to draw in but was 2nd vs level in same race as Strike At Dawn. Was on the rail that day saving ground, which even if she gets in this race won’t have that luxury today. 


RACE 6: 4-2
Thinking FTS is the way to go here. 4-SOLDIER BOY is a FTS for John Sadler, who is 18% with FTS. Was a $350K two year old purchase and comes in off a bullet 5 furlong work. 2-Fay Dan is a FTS for Baffert, who’s 34% FTS. His dam Eden’s Storm a perfect 3 for 3 with her racing starters. 


RACE 7: 6-3
This $85K Stakes Race has several dropping from Graded Stakes and also should have a decent to fast early pace. Looking to take advantage of that is 6-STREAK OF LUCK, who tried sitting close to the pace last out and wasn’t successful. Look for her to be coming from off the pace today. Has been competitive vs GS company. 3-Paved another who will want a pace to chase and also another who will appreciate a drop in class. Making 2019 debut so this former Grade 2 winner may not be fully cranked, as Michael McCarthy is only 7% off long layoffs.


RACE 8: 6-5-4
Our finale today is a bottom level maiden claiming event. 6-FUNUSUAL made debut in state bred MSW, beating half the field of 10 in that 5 furlong turf race. Drops to maiden claiming, switches to dirt. Two maintenance works since debut. 5-Bobby’s Day is a FTS for Ron Ellis(18%) But is 5 of last 13 debuting in maiden claimers. Nice 4 furlong gate work coming in. 4-Testimony was 2nd last out at level up in Northern California circuit at Pleasanton. Looks to be on the lead early and Jonathan Wong/Abel Cedillo combo are 32% last 31 starters together. 

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