This race gets the Breeders Cup races started on Saturday. Full field. Interesting race. I will start by saying that Marley’s Freedom is absolutely the horse to beat. But for the purpose of this write up, and let’s face it, it’s no fun betting the favorite on Breeders Cup day, I will try to beat her.
6-9-11
Eight-year-old Rainbow Heir (6) was actually retired after his monster performance at Gulfstream (106
Beyer) but came back into training after doing well enough to convince the owner. This apparently was
Servis’ goal last year for him, but the owner wanted him to stud. His comeback race was actually very
good, a close third in the Turf Monster while getting a difficult trip. Obviously you have to respect
anything that Servis sends out, and Jose Ortiz gets a leg up. I think he’ll get a quick pace to set up his
closing kick. He’s 7/10 ITM at the distance. The concern I have is that he hasn’t won a stakes race since
… 2013 and he’s actually never run in a Grade 1. Odds should be attractive enough though, especially
for a horse no one’s been faster than (Beyer-wise) this year.
You won’t get 30/1 on defending champ Stormy Liberal (9) this time around but he’s been great out
west in his most recent 3 starts. He’s gotten the better of stablemate Richard’s Boy each and every time,
so note that they’ve been working different days at SLR recently. Drayden’s timed his moves perfectly,
and he should sit a good stalking trip. He loves the distance. The concern with him is that 8 of his 11
wins have come down the hill at SA (the other 3 came at Del Mar) and his 2 trips to NY were
disappointing. However, he did run big in Meydan, so it’s not like he can’t ship.
Irad’s choice to move from Disco Partner to World of Trouble (11) tells you all you need to know about
how highly he thinks of this three-year-old, especially since the former is the morning-line favorite. He’s
never run against older, and I’m not sure what he beat in the Allied Forces last out, but he’s been
incredibly impressive in both grass tries and might have found his home, even though he was pretty good
on the dirt too. Note that when he wins, he wins big and easy and actually doesn’t need the lead. The fact
that he makes his debut against older in the championship race is more than a little concerning, which is
why I couldn’t pull the trigger to put him on top, and based on the chatter surrounding this race I don’t
think you’ll get 6/1 on him, but he’s as talented as anyone here is merits a big chance.
Notes: I was really intrigued by Conquest Tsunami (14) and seriously considered him but his post is an
absolute killer. If someone decides to go with him, I think he’s going to have a wide trip. If he’s clear,
he’ll have to work pretty hard to get there. He’s been right with the top 2 morning line favorites, and he’ll
be a better price, I just couldn’t work out a trip for him. If you feel that he can clear, he’s dangerous …
At his best, Disco Partner (5) is obviously the best in here, and he’s coming off the highest last-out
Beyer in the field (matched this year only by Rainbow Heir in this field), but he’s not great at this
distance (last win was August 2016) and his only 2 starts outside of NY resulted in third place finishes,
included his worst race in more than 2 years in the Shakertown. The jockey switch is more of a positive
for World of Trouble than a negative for this one, but the fact is Irad’s been on him, except once, for 2
years. He’ll be too short a price given the questions to take on top … I honestly couldn’t give much
insight on the 2 Euros, but it looks like both have had success on softer turf so upgrade if that’s the case,
and Lost Treasure (7) has experience around a turn.
B’s: 5,14
C’s: 4,7,8,
he Grade 1 Breeders Cup Dirt Mile $1,000,000 Post Time 1:16PM ET
Often underrated and overlooked is this 8 furlong middle distance on the dirt. Without getting the respect the fastest sprinters in the world or classic distance runners get, the Dirt Mile continuously attracts the best of the horses that don’t fit neatly into either of those two divisions. Returning to a single turn for the first time in years, this vintage is probably the most stacked this division has been in recent memory.
#10 Catalina Cruiser is maybe the hottest horse in the country at the moment and has the most speed in the field. There doesn’t seem to be a whole lot to challenge this lightly raced 4 year old and for that reason combined with the single turn we think he’ll last the whole way around. This son of Union Rags won the San Diego Handicap this summer at Del Mar by 6 lengths after Accelerate dodged him. He followed that performance up with a 7 length win in the G2 Pat O’Brien beating last year’s Dirt Mile winner Battle of Midway over the same strip as last year’s BC. This horse is too talented and if he gets loose on the lead it could be over early. The pick in this one.
#7 Firenze Fire is returning to his best distance (3 for 4) for the first time since he set New York City on Fire in the Dwyer by 9 lengths earning a 107 Beyer. His last out win in the G3 Gallant Bob at Parx was an impressive effort over a very tiring track but was restricted to 3 year olds and we worry about him facing older horses for the first time in his career. Extremely talented miler.
#1 City of Light was considered one of the top handicap division horses in the country before being turned back in the G1 Santa Anita Gold Cup in May by Accelerate. Michael McCarthy then tried the sprint division in the G1 Forego where he ran into some of the best sprinters on earth and never really turned in that stretch kick many of us were expecting. Here he returns to the middle distance and he could easily win and reclaim his status as one of the top older males in the country. Post one could be a problem if he doesn’t get at or close to the lead.
Also in consideration is #6 Seeking the Soul, a Churchill specialist with 3 wins in 8 efforts over this strip, it jumps off the pages of the form that all of his best efforts come under the Twin Spires including a win in the G1 Clark Handicap last November earning a 103 Beyer. Ignore #3 Isotherm’s most recent effort at your own peril where he finished just two lengths behind Accelerate and West Coast. Will need to improve upon the 97 Beyer he earned in that to win this one. #4 Seven Trumpets is not quite good enough to keep up with the top sprinters or the top milers. Unfortunately #5 Awesome Slew appears to have seen better days and is no longer a contender despite finishing just a neck behind Limousine Liberal back on Kentucky Derby day in the G2 Churchill Downs. #8 Bravazo would need massive improvement to contend here. #9 Giant Expectations has flashed brilliance at points in his career, too inconsistent to take seriously here. #2 Trigger Warning is not a contender at this level.
Race 6: The $2,000,000 Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Breeder’s Cup Filly and Mare Turf, 1 3/8 miles
on the Turf, For Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 2:04 PM EDT.
Selections: 1-3-14
[As this race is being handicapped several days in advance due to publication
deadlines, all selections were made on the basis that the turf course will likely be fairly
soft on Saturday due to the heavy amounts of rain Louisville is projected to receive on
Wednesday and throughout Thursday. It is expected that the turf course will most likely
be listed as YIELDING with the slight possibility of it be rated as GOOD. That being said
there are a number of runners that could potentially benefit from running over softer
conditions while several others would prefer the ground to be much firmer. Additionally,
as this race appears to be fairly competitive one underneath play will be given out as
well. And as always please feel free to use any or all of the provided selections when
making exotic wagers; however the preferred format would be (1,2/1,2,3,4) for exactas
and (1,2/1,2,3,4/1,2,3,4) for trifectas although there are several other contenders in this
race that even though they will not be mentioned have the potential to fill out the
underneath portions of any exotics. Best of luck to all the handicappers playing this race
and away we go…]
(1) Fourstar Crook: One of a quintet in this race for trainer Chad Brown, Fourstar Crook finally
scored her first Grade 1 victory in her most recent start the ten furlong Flower Bowl Invitational
(G1T) at Belmont Park back in the beginning of October. The Flower Bowl has proven to be one
of the most crucial preps for this Filly and Mare Turf as it has produced six of the 19 winners of
this race including four of the last 11 editions. Additionally, Chad Brown has absolutely owned
this race since 2012 as he’s not only won a record three times since then but also finished second
twice and third once. Fourstar Crook is possibly one of the best turf closers in this field and she
has been able to run well over all kinds of ground conditions varying from firm all the way to
soft. However, the one drawback against her running style is that there does not appear to be a lot
of early speed entered into this race with the two most likely front-runners being her stablemates
Thais and A Raving Beauty. Yet, Fourstar Crook has demonstrated this year that not only can
she be effective by closing from well back but she can also run well when positioned from mid-
pack and she does not appear to have any issues handling varying pace scenarios. Brown does
quite well when with returning runners that won their last race to the winner’s circle as he’s won
27% of his last 726 races over the past three years. Additionally, it is always good to see that Irad
Ortiz retains the mount (23% win rate in turf races this year) as he has either won or finished
second in all four starts aboard Fourstar Crook. Finally, at 5-1 this one is an absolute must use in
this race as she appears to be coming into this race off of a key prep, should be quite fresh and
offers excellent value unlike her stablemate, Sistercharlie, who we will not be using as she has
not raced since her win in the Beverly D Stakes (G1T) on August 11 th , would prefer to run over
firmer turf and is the ML favorite at 3-1.
(3) Wild Illusion: This daughter of Dubawi ships over for trainer Charlie Appleby and
international powerhouse owners Godolphin. Wild Illusion comes into this race in fine form
having posted brilliant efforts in her last two Group 1 starts at Goodwood in August over ten
furlongs in Nassau Stakes and then at Longchamp in October in the Prix de l’Opera also over ten
furlongs. That latter race has also proved to be one of the key prep races for the Filly and Mare
Turf as runners exiting that race have won this Breeder’s Cup event three times since 2009.
Although Wild Illusion has yet to contest the specific distance of 11 furlongs for this race, over
the course of her career she has proven herself not only at 10 furlongs but also at 12 furlongs so
she should have no issues stretching out an extra furlong today. Additionally, Wild Illusion has
demonstrated that she can handle all moisture levels in the turf as she has won against Group 1
company not only over firm but also over soft. Furthermore, while the majority of her races in
Europe have been run in a right-hand configuration, Wild Illusion has finished second in her only
attempt running left-handed (the way most races are run in the United States). Wild Illusion’s
running style is somewhat versatile as although she primarily prefers to run as a pace-stalker, she
can be forwardly placed and set the pace when necessary. Thus should the likely pace-setters in
this race begin to falter or should the fractions be a bit slower than Wild Illusion likes, she
certainly has the ability to take over the race and dictate the pace at any stage. Her TimeForm
ratings over her past two races have been excellent and thus she should be quite competitive in
this race. William Buick who has been aboard for her last four starts, all against Group 1 and 2
company, gets the call again today. Should the pace scenario not favorably develop for the
closers in this race, expect that Wild Illusion will get first crack then at the pace-setters and
possibly win this race for the second year in a row for Godolphin.
(14) Eziyra: This daughter of Teofilo, a son of champion Galileo, ships over to the Breeder’s
Cup for trainer Dermot Weld following a quality victory in the ten furlong Group 1 Blandford
Stakes at the Curragh back in September. A lightly raced four year old filly, Eziyra has raced just
three times this year and hit the board in each of those starts, including two wins, all against
Group level company. While she has yet to contest today’s distance of 11 furlongs, she has
proven herself not only at further distances but she also has yet to miss hitting the board in all
eleven starts on the grass (and that figure includes six wins). Furthermore, unlike some of her
fellow European shippers who have limited experiencing contesting left-handed run races, Eziyra
boasts a record of 5-2-2-1 when competing in races run in the American style. Additionally she
has demonstrated that she would likely prefer a good deal of give in the ground as a number of
her best efforts have come over yielding to soft grass courses. Eziyra’s running style is primarily
that of a closer and while there are a number of other entrants in this field with similar running
styles, Eziyra appears to possess one of the best late closing kicks of the bunch which could
make her particularly dangerous today should she get an ideal pace set up. The legendary turf
rider, Frankie Dettori, gets the call to ride for Weld today and that is a very encouraging sign. At
15-1 ML odds (though likely to dip lower given a decent amount of hype surrounding this filly),
Eziyra represents a live long shot in this field with potential to play the role of spoiler and even if
she does not win could still hit the board at a great price.
There are a number of worthy candidates to consider using as underneath plays in this race but
ultimately the (10) Magic Wand was chosen. While Aidan O’Brien historically has not done
well in this race, having gone 0-11, he has finished second twice including last year with
Rhododendron. Magic Wand’s running style is a bit intriguing as she began this year primarily
contesting her races whilst forwardly placed; however, in each of her last two starts, she broke
slowly and although she quickly found herself at the back of those fields, she was able to rally
well with excellent late closing speed and finish second each time. Thus it is a bit of a
conundrum as to exactly which running style Magic Wand will display today; yet rest assured
that she will likely be involved and in contention in the latter stages of this race. She should have
no issues handling the 11 furlong distance for this race as over the course of her career she’s
raced and won at even longer distances. However, her record when contesting left-handed
configured races of 5-1-0-1 (all against lower class levels) leaves a bit to be desired.
Additionally, unlike many European runners that ship over to the United States in the fall that
excel at running over softer going on the grass, Magic Wand appears to be at her best when
running over firmer turf conditions. Yet, that is not to say that Magic Wand cannot handle soft
turf conditions. Ryan Moore gets the call to ride for trainer O’Brien and that is always
encouraging to see as Moore is usually O’Brien’s go to rider for his top mounts. All in all, Magic
Wand warrants ample consideration as an underneath play in this race.
BC SPRINT
RACE 7
#1 Whitmore: This is one of my Favorite horses who I seemed to land on every race he was in this year. He won his G1 two back although it was at 7 furlongs he fits with G1 types at the shorter distance he just missed last time out in the Phoenix by a head. Fore sprinters at this level don’t just need speed they need grit this one always tries. his last 4 races in graded stake company he has never been worse than a second place finish by less than a length. His turn time in the last race of 22.6 is in line with the main speed in this race. He should be within striking position through the turn and finish strongly.
#2 Promises Fulfilled: Speed,speed,speed his turn time to back is a sub 22 second quarter in a G1 pretty good. The negative the two horses he beat are running in the mile this weekend. Since the Kentucky Derby trail didn’t work out he has rattled off three straight victories a G1, G2, and a G3 so he is definitely classy enough. He like my top pick have the crucial win at Churchill Downs. I don’t know if he’s ever had this class like Imperial Hint and Roy H chasing him so that is my question mark can he withstand multiple challenges at this 6-furlong race.
#5 Imperial hint: a Key handicapping angle is improving turntime in sprinters well this ones last 3 races show just that 22.7 3 back 22.4 2 back 22.3 in his last race. In his last race, he didn’t face much the 2nd and third place runners were just allowance winners. He loves the distance the last time second off a layoff at this track I know the sloppy track, not the right distance. he didn’t run well also the trainer doesn’t seem to do well off this type of layoff. In what I feel is the toughest of the races this weekend at 9-5 let him beat you and try and find some value.
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Race 8 Breeders Cup Mile: 5-14-7
#5 OSCAR PERFORMANCE is 2 for 2 in races this year where he has crossed the finish line. This guy is also 3 for 3 at the distance, won a grade 1 his last time out, and the highest speed figure at today’s distance. Those last two works we see have been very solid, he loves the distance and he looks primed and ready today to win his third graded stake of the year! #14 MUSTASHRY is a shipper coming over from Great Britain who has raced 2nd or better in all 4 races he’s been in this year. A multiple group stakes winner in the UK, this guys won two straight including a group 2 and the last race was at the mile distance. What makes me high on this guy is not only his ability but the trainer stats are magnificent here, 67% with first time lasix +$6.50, and 40% in graded stakes races. #7 EXPERT EYE has been ITM in 5 of 6 races this year and ran 3rd in a group 1 last time out at the trip. Last time Frankie was up he won a group 1 on this guy and gets lasix for the first time. Turf with moisture isn’t a problem for this guy and he has hit the unders at this distance both times he ran this distance this year. The trainer is 66% first time lasix and this is another shipper with a good shot here.
Breeder’s Cup Distaff by Hunter Ulwelling (@hunterandhorses)
Picks: top pick #11
#1- Champagne Problems is a consistent, hard trying filly. Her honest efforts usually land her a
place on the board. She is coming back to race her old opponent Blue Prize, and although I
don’t see this filly winning the race, she will be right up there, and this is hands down, the
toughest race in her life this far.
#2- Abel Tasman has been a stellar filly to watch, and I hope she will return next year. Her last
race is a bit worrisome, she lost by 10 lengths which is something very uncommon for her, but
every good horse has a bad day, and she can rebound from it. Mike Smith and Bob Baffert
team up in hopes of a win.
#3- La Force, like Champagne Problems, is in the race of her life. Judging by her races and Beyer
numbers, the connections wanted to take a shot here and run her in the big one. It is
interesting her last race she won was an allowance optional claimer, and ten months later, she
is running in the Breeder’s Cup. She’s not a filly that will finish on top, or close to it, but she will
run hard.
#4- Mopotism is perhaps in a little over her head here, but it doesn’t hurt to take a shot. She
has faced some stiff company in her recent races, but is coming off of a break with a couple of
bullet works.
#5- Wonder Gadot was soundly beat in a tough race last out, but she was beat by two fantastic
fillies. Running third against Midnight Bisou and Monomoy Girl is nothing to be taken lightly. I
see her running fourth. Miss Gadot is a filly who is always right with the competition.
#6- Verve’s Tale is another mare who is typically right in the mix. As you can tell by her record
of 22 starts, 3-7-7 is pretty good and she has racked up a bankroll for herself! Her older brother
also participated in the Triple Crown races a couple years back, comes from a nice family.
#7- Midnight Bisou caught herself in a tough ran race last out. Must have been a tough choice
for Smith to hop off of her, and go onto Abel Tasman. This filly has had a very good year and
made a name for herself. I think this could be her race to win.
#8- Vale Dori has certainly rebounded. Just when we think she is ready to be a broodmare, she
pulls of a grade one win and makes it look easy. Vale Dori is an enjoyable mare to watch, rarely
misses a beat, but I do think these younger girls are going to give her a challenge, and I am a bit
concerned for that.
#9- If you want a nice filly, Wow Cat is your gal. Eight wins off the bat before she made her US
debut, you can’t just expect her to come over and be able to pull of graded wins, but she has
done that and ran in some tough spots. The Personal Ensign last out was a tough race but she handled it well, and won a grade one after that.
#10- Blue Prize went from winning optional claiming races to being a superstar stakes mare and
never looking back. Her odds of 6-1 are fair, but I think this is a big chance entering her against
these younger fillies and mares she is racing. She isn’t slowing down though, comes off of a
grade one win last out.
#11- Monomoy Girl has done absolutely nothing wrong, except for her last race. Looking on
paper, this appears to be the winner. Her ability to set the fractions and hold the lead is
impressive. She is facing a very diverse class of fillies here, and I wonder if Vale Dori and old nemesis Midnight Bisou are going to challenge her.
Race 10- Breeders Cup Turf
2 – Enable (GB)
12-Waldgeist (GB)
3 -Channel Maker
5- Magical (Ire)
Enable will be the heavy favorite and rightfully so. She is a perfect 6-6 at the distance and has won the ARC back to back years. She is also carrying less weight today then she has in her previous 2 wins and is adding lasix for the first time. There is more speed in here today then she is use to, but I don’t think any of the American horses will be able to keep up with her early. I think she will be the first horse to achieve the ARC/BC Turf double in the same year.
Waldgeist was closing late on Enable in the ARC and finished 4th. While the ARC/Breeders Cup Turf double has never been done in the same year, horses coming out of the ARC are usually very competitive in this race. If the American horses try to go with Enable early, Waldgeist should be coming late. If you are not using Enable as a single on your multi’s, I recommend using Waldgeist who will probably be 2nd choice.
Channel Maker I think is the best of the American horses. He has been improving all year, and is coming off a dominate win in the Turf Classic at Belmont. I am not sure he can keep up with Enable early so I expect him to sit off her and try to pass her around the far turn. If you are using an American horse here, I think Channel Maker is your horse.
Magical was no match for Enable in the ARC, but came back on 10/20 to win a G1 from off the pace at Ascot. I am not a huge fan of the short turnaround, but Aidan O’Brein has been successful with this move in the past. She will need to improve to beat Enable and the rest here, but is worth the risk if you’re trying to beat the favorites at a morning line of 10-1.
It’s the signature event of every Breeders’ Cup: the $6 million Classic. This year’s renewal drew a full field of 14, and featured a typical star-studded cast of some of the country’s best horses. Here, I’ll go through all 14 horses, starting with the horses that I think are the least likely to win, and going from there:
Top pick #6
THE PRETENDERS
5- Lone Sailor: He comes into this race off a win in the Oklahoma Derby, which he won by winning a desperately close photo finish against Believe in Royalty and Diamond King. If either one of those two ran here, they’d be blown off the track, which doesn’t cast Lone Sailor in a good light. Two starts back, he was second in the Super Derby behind Limation, who was soundly beaten in his other two races against stakes company. It’s safe to say that if he struggled to beat mediocre three-year-olds, he’s up against it here.
4- Gunnevara: A classic “close-but-no-cigar” type, he’s made more than $3 million in his career, but has never won a grade 1 race. In his most recent start, he finished second in the Woodward Stakes at Saratoga. He ran well in there, but the horses he beat that day weren’t nearly as good as those he’ll see here. His inability to win high-class races is another black mark against him.
13- Discreet Lover: He won the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park last out in a 45/1 upset, closing from far behind off a brutally hot pace to just get up in the last few jumps. While a fun horse to root for — he’s raced nine times this year already, and is trained by the obscure Uriah St. Lewis, who has never had a Breeders’ Cup starter before — the odds of him getting a dreamy trip like that again are remote.
1- Thunder Snow: Like Discreet Lover, he had a very fast pace collapse in front of him in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, but was outkicked by Discreet Lover and finished second. If he was as good as his supporters say he is, he would have won that race easily. As things stand now, I’m skeptical.
10- Yoshida: He’s only raced on dirt once, but it was a big win: a victory in the Woodward, defeating Gunnevara while dealing with a wide trip. His brisnet figure in that race was just a 101, well below the standards set by the contenders. He could improve enough to win second time on dirt, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
2- Roaring Lion: He’s the only horse in the field who has never raced in the United States before. All 12 of his starts have come in Europe, and he’s done quite well over there. He’s won four grade 1 races in a row this year. The problem is all of those races have been on turf; as such his aptitude over dirt is, at best, a big unknown. Historically, European runners have not fared well in the Classic. Only two Euros have ever won the Classic: 133/1 fluke Arcangues in 1993, and Raven’s Pass in 2008, who won it over a synthetic track, as opposed to the dirt surface Roaring Lion will run on. Numerous top-class Euros, such as Rodrigo de Triano (14th in 1992), Halling (11th in 1995), Galileo (6th in 2001), So You Think (6th in 2011), and Gleneagles (8th in 2015), have all tried and failed at low odds in the Classic on dirt. I don’t see how Roaring Lion will be any different.
9- Mendelssohn: Out of the three horses in this race to run in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Mendelssohn ran by far the best race. He was right off of pace-setting Diversify, who blew through blazing fast fractions. While most horses would have tired badly after such an exertion, Mendelssohn held in gamely, giving way in the last eighth and finishing third, beaten two lengths.
Nevertheless, there are two major strikes against Diversify in my eyes. One, if he gets involved in a similar pace battle, he’s going to be have to fend off opponents much tougher than Thunder Snow and Discreet Lover, and I don’t know if he’s capable of doing so. Two, his speed figures are not quite up to par with the top contenders. His best brisnet figure so far is a 104; six horses in the field have run at least a 107 within their last three races. I wouldn’t bet on Mendelssohn improving that much and everyone else regressing.
8- Pavel: He’s one of the few in the field to have proven himself at Churchill Downs, having won the Stephen Foster Handicap back in June by almost four lengths. Unfortunately for him, that’s his only good race of the year. Besides that race, he has not run a figure higher than 101, and has been badly beaten by the favorite, Accelerate, three times. Even in the Stephen Foster, his figure was 106, which isn’t quite up to snuff with the contenders. I’m skeptical.
THE CONTENDERS
As noted above, six horses have run at least a 107 brisnet figure in the last three races. I’ll profile each of them below, starting with the least likely to win out of those six.
12- Axelrod: This late bloomer looks like a very live longshot. He’s improved his figure in each of his last four races, peaking at an impressive 110 when finishing second in the Pennsylvania Derby. He’s got very strong late pace figures, suggesting that he’ll be flying from behind late in the race. His primary flaw is that that 110 is way above anything else he’s ever done (his next highest figure was a 99), so it’s not clear if he’ll be able to approach it again. Nevertheless, late-blooming three-year-olds have done damage in this race in the past. He’s 30/1 on the morning line; if he goes off at anywhere near those odds, he’s worth a look.
3- Catholic Boy: One of the “glamour” three-year-olds on the field, he’s coming in here off a win in the prestigious Travers Stakes. He sat a perfect trip in that race, rating just off the early leader, then pouncing on the turn and drawing off. His figure in that race was an impressive 108, a number that might be good enough to win here. However, he’s unlikely to encounter easy circumstances once again. That race in the Travers was tailor-made for him. He rated just off the leader and overtook him when he got tired. No one in the race made a serious rally, which will almost certainly not be the case in the Classic. He’s a promising horse to be sure, but he’s an unknown when it comes to overcoming adversity.
7- West Coast: A promising three-year-old last year, West Coast finished third in the 2017 Classic as one of the favorites. Since then, he’s run just three times, finishing second each time. Last out, he was second to Accelerate in the Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita Park. It was West Coast’s first start since late March. He got a great rail-riding trip in that race, but still wasn’t much competition for Accelerate, who was wide throughout. In fact, West Coast just barely beat out the unremarkable Isotherm for third place. Of course, West Coast has the opportunity to improve second off the layoff, and he’s run figures as high as 116 in the past. If he runs back to a race like that, he’s going to be tough. As things stand now, I would recommend using him in a pick 4 or pick 5 if you want to go deep.
11- Mind Your Biscuits: He’s coming off a big win over this track, winning the Wayne Lukas Classic by five lengths five weeks. More commonly known as a sprinter, he’s stretched out to 1 1/8 miles in his last two races. He finished second in the Whitney Stakes, a race where the winner, Diversify, had an enormous pace advantage. Under more fair circumstances in the Lukas Classic, he fired big-time, earning a figure of 109, a career-high. Look for him to rate off the pace on the outside and pounce on the far turn. He’s got great late pace figures at 1 1/8 miles, so I’m not too concerned about him going 1 1/4 miles for the first time.
14- Accelerate: The likely favorite, Accelerate has had a tremendous season. He’s won four grade 1 races, one grade 2 race, and narrowly missed winning another grade 2. His figures have been fantastic; he hasn’t run lower than a 106 in any of his last five races. With a win here, he’d have a chance to upset Triple Crown winner Justify as the Horse of the Year. He’s got a similar running style to Mind Your Biscuits, in that he stalks the pace and pounces on the early leaders.
The primary concern with him is that his best races have generally been in California, and, of course, the Breeders’ Cup is in the Kentucky. He won the Santa Anita Handicap back in March over a wet track, so the surface should not be a concern for him. As long as Accelerate can transfer his form.
6- McKinzie: He’ll be my top pick. Before he got injured in the spring, he looked like the top contender for the Kentucky Derby. When he returned, he came back in style, destroying the field in the Pennsylvania Derby. He won by almost two lengths, earning a gigantic figure of 112. When one considers that was his first race since March 10, that is an astounding number. If he improves at all off that figure, forget about it. He’s going to win this race easily.