Last Friday night was one of those days at the track when your not sure you want to ever go back, but here I am back at the plate swinging away for another week. Now that they’ve run a couple of weeks here at Colonial some of these horses are making their second starts of the meet and in a couple cases their third. I’ll be at Colonial this night and Saturday night tweeting some possible changes and other things @stonerhole. Hope to meet a few of you there as well.
Best Bet Race 5 #7 War Stroll
Longshot Play Race 6 #4 Gypsy Stroll
Race 1 4-3 -1A
#4 Money in the Bank ran 2nd here last Friday closing well late as the favorite. Tonight he stretches out to a mile and drops to the maiden claiming level for Dane Kobiskie who’s 32% with this move. The added distance won’t be an issue, I actually thing it helps his chances. #3 Tolaga Bay finished 2nd here last week as well at a much better level. He just missed at this level and distance back in May at Monmouth. This seems to be the right level. 1A Rock on Kitten ships in from Churchill after being claimed by trainer Brendan Walsh who’s had 2 winners from 3 starters so far at the meet. This is the lowest level of his career but he seems he may have a case of seconditis and he may be overbet.
Pick 4 play 3,5,6/ 4,5,6,/6,9,12/3,7,8=$40.50
Race 2 5-3-6
#5 Petticoatsnpistols drops to a similar level where she won going 5 1/2 furlongs three starts back at Laurel closing well late. Speed figures have been increasing in her last 3 starts, but 1 win in 16 turf starts does leave me concerned.#3 Loran Holiday returns to the turf after a dull effort last out on the dirt. Three of her four career wins have been on the turf so she has to be respected. #6 Jumpin’ Nancy drops in class and returns to a sprint for trainer Susan Cooney who’s 22% with this move. Even though all her wins have been on the all weather the drop in class has to help her chances.
Race 3 6-4-5
#6 Heavenly Hattie drops in class and come into this race off about a six week freshening. She broke her maiden after a similar layoff back in May. She’s got the right running style for the way the track has been playing so far this meet.#4 Pas It On looks to be lone speed in this field but the speed just hasn’t been holding on especially at route distances. If CC Lopez can go about 50 seconds for the first half she may hold on.#5 Mamma Dee ships down from Saratoga for Linda Rice after being the beaten favorite in her last 2 starts in NY. This seems to be a suspicious drop in class to me but she must be respected even though I’m pretty sure she’ll be overbet.
Race 4 12-9-6
#12 Caneel Bay drops to the lowest level of his career after getting beat by a half a length last time out. Speed figures have been increasing, and i think this level may be the right level for him to get to the winners circle after hitting the board in 7 of 9 career starts. #9 High Rider gets back on the turf tonight after his last race was rained off the turf at Saratoga. He also drops to his lowest career level. #6 Leading Man is another one who drops to a career lowest level. His speed figures have increased in all three of his career starts.
Race 5 7-3-8
#7 War Stroll takes a big class drop and comes into this race 3rd off the lay off for Trainer Wayne Potts who’s 19% with these types of runners. Speed figures have been increasing lately as well. Even though he’d rather have some moister in the turf I think this class drop gets the job done.#3 The Zip Zip Man finished 5th last out at a much higher level but was beaten less then 2 lengths having a troubled trip. The class drop and his running style puts him right in the mix. #8 Not A Chance certainly has a chance in here with the class drop and the Jockey upgrade to Javian Toledo. He won at this distance and a higher level last July at Laurel.
Late pick 4 play 1,2,3,4,7,11/1,5,6,9,14/7/3,5,7=$45
Race 6 4-3-1
#4 Gypsy Girl ships in from Delaware, takes a big class drop from MSW runners and gets lasix for tonight’s race. Trainer Pecoraro is 43% with his first time lasix runners. Lots to like.#3 What a Tart finished an ok third in her career start at Laurel and now drops slightly in class. Hamilton Smith trains this one for his father plus you get a jockey up grade to Carrasco#1 Princess Carrigan finished in front of What a Tart in the last race battling for the lead most of the way. Speed figures have increased in her two starts but speed has not been good at this meet so I think she’ll be close in the end but not sure she can hold on.
Race 7 1-5-9
#1 Go Yeowomen broke her maiden last out at Arlington Park at this distance sitting a perfect stalking trip. Speed figures have increased in her last three starts and I think the winning light bulb went off for this one last out and I look for her to repeat.#5 Conquesthardcherry finished third here last week, flying late from 10 lengths out of it at the top of the stretch. The stretch out to a mile should only help her chances. #9 Midnight Crossing finished in front of Conquesthardcherry last week also closing well late. 1 for 20 on the turf is nothing to jump up and down about but if your playing one you must include the other.
Race 8 7-6-2
#7 Speed Game just missed last time out on a yielding turf course at Laurel at a higher level. He showed speed in that race but has shown the ability to rate of the pass. 6 wins in 19 turf starts is very solid. Carrasco comes in from Laurel ride this one as well, also a positive sign. I’m going to go out on a limb and single this one in the pick 4.#6 Charm Offensive comes into this race 3rd off a lay off for little known trainer Michael Ewing who’s 3 for 9 with these types of lay off runners. 3 for 3 in the money on turf is a positive sign.#2 Tito Tonight won here on the 8th sitting just off the pace at 24-1. Must be respected having a win over the course but your not going to get 24-1 tonight.
Race 9 5-7-3
#5 Creaky Cricket finished 4th here on the 9th at a mile distance. Now cuts back to his much better distance where he’s hit the board in 9 of his 15 starts with 2 wins. Has shown a good closing kick in the past so I think he’ll be flying late.#7 King Gatto drops in class after 2 solid races recently on the turf at Delaware. Has beaten better on the turf in the past so this spot fits him right.#3 Taco I really had no idea what to do with this guy but couldn’t leave him out of the late pick 4. His past form makes him a giant standout in this field but being off for over 2 years with no real super workouts makes me wonder what the heck he’s even doing in this race.
Good Luck!!!!!!!!!!!