Mrs. Revere – G2 1 1/16 Mile Turf 3YO Fillies
Churchill Downs Friday November 29, 2019
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
A full field of fourteen 3YO fillies entered for this year’s Mrs. Revere G2 running 1 1/16 miles on the turf under the Twin Spires. While there are a couple of interesting value plays with a decent shot to upset the tote board, the three clear favorites are the two Chad Brown entries and the Wesley Ward horse drawn to the far outside post. Let’s take a look at the entire field.
#1 Julia’s Ready appears to be a notch below the entire field and her odds will definitely reflect her pre-race status come post time. This David Vance runner has been facing allowance fields for the bulk of her racing career and she is trying stakes company for the first time tonight. She hasn’t notched a win in her last ten running lines and breaking the superfecta will be a challenge for her tonight. With a perfect trip from the rail under jockey Martin Garcia she may have a chance to use her limited tactical speed to put in a spirited run, but anything more than that will be a complete surprise.
Trainer Chad Brown has the third ML favorite #2 Nay Lady Nay entered for her fifth career start today as she didn’t start running until June of this year, forgoing her entire juvenile year. She has basically done all that her connections have asked of her so far, but I find it interesting that jockey Paco Lopez decided to jump off of her today for another runner after winning the Parx Filly Oaks with her in her last start on 10/7/19. While it’s normally a bad idea to leave a Chad Brown turf runner off your ticket, I will be fading this one today.
Paco Lopez chose to ride Peter Miller’s surface changing #3 Proud Emma instead of the previously mentioned Nay Lady Nay. She has run in three graded stakes this year on the dirt but failed to hit the board in all of those efforts. She took four months off after her graded stakes and won her second race back from the break in a nice OC $100K here at Churchill Downs just two weeks ago. She is trying the turf for the first time today, and, while I respect the confidence, her pedigree doesn’t suggest that she will actually relish the surface change. Peter Miller has been red-hot this meet, so I wouldn’t completely disregard her chances, but I don’t usually back experienced horses making a surface change for the first time this late in their career, especially in a graded stake. I might play her underneath, but a victory will burn my horizontal tickets.
#4 Dalika finished a competent fifth in the G3 Valley View at Keeneland in her last race on 10/19/19 after a brief two-month layoff for trainer Al Stall. While I expect some improvement off of her last race, it is probably too much to ask for her to use her speed all the way around the track and hold on for the victory. She will certainly be an early pace factor in today’s Mrs. Revere, but it’s probably too much to ask for her to take this group wire to wire. If they leave her alone on the front end, new jockey Luis Saez might be able to pull of a magic trick, but I’m looking elsewhere for the winner.
Jockey Julien Leparoux won on #5 Winning Envelope in her last start on 10/17/19, an allowance on the turf at Keeneland, but he decided to let this one go to Brian Hernandez Jr. today. While trainer Chris Block has been performing quite well here at Churchill Downs, this horse ha demonstrated the tendency to finish underneath against good fillies. All three of her graded stakes finishes were out of the money and I expect the same today.
#6 Winter Sunset has knocked heads with a bunch of good fillies in her eight-race career, including losing to Concrete Rose twice earlier this Spring. This Wayne Catalano filly is appearing in her sixth graded stake today, but she always seems to be a few lengths off the winner. Jockey Channing Hill takes the reins from his father-in-law again today, and, while I believe her last race was too bad to actually consider, I will still use her underneath. While she has beaten a couple of these runners in other races, she is just a notch below the good 3YO fillies.
#7 Hard Legacy is one of those fillies that has beaten the previously mentioned Winter Sunset, in fact, she accomplished that win over this very strip at Churchill Downs on 6/15/19 in the G3 Regret. This Norm Casse runner hasn’t looked like much in her last two tries against stiffer competition, but a nice run today would not surprise me. She flattened out a bit in her last race and faced a monster in the Del Mar Oaks on 8/17/19. He might be Casse’s best filly and he certainly doesn’t duck the challenges with her. I expect her to be a nice value contender today under jockey Julien Leparoux, who decided to ride her above other options he surely had.
Trainer Steve Margolis is letting #8 She’sonthewarpath take a shot against graded company for the first time today, and, let’s face it, she deserves the chance. Her fourth-place finish in her race on 9/4/19 was better than it looks on paper even though she did finish fourth behind three other runners in this race. Jockey Chantal Sutherland broke this filly’s maiden and stayed with her for two more victories before her last race and she stays aboard again today. The six workouts since that race have been rather promising and the familiarity of the regular pilot is also an advantage. While I don’t think she wil get her picture taken, I’ll play her in the exotics.
Trainer Rodolphe Brisset is swinging for the fences by entering #9 Passionof the Nile in her first graded stake. While she did notch her third career win in her last race on 11/7/19, it was on her fifth consecutive race on the dirt. The surface change for her isn’t quite the mystery as Proud Emma as she ran her first three races on the sod, but she wasn’t that good in those races. Sure, Florent Geroux took the irons for this race, but I just can’t see it.
#10 Amandrea moves from the Mike Maker barn to Steve Asmussen today and he immediately enters her into a graded stakes tussle. While she won her only race over this Churchill Downs turf on 5/1/19, it was against far inferior competition than she is facing today. Maker entered her in the G2 Lake Placid on 8/17/19 where she finished a close fourth, but that appears to have been a rather weak rendition of that race. Asmussen may be able to improve her since the barn change and he has given her six nice workouts, but this is a tall order. Also, I’m not thrilled with new jockey Ricardo Santana Jr.’s 10% win ratio on the grass. This might be too much for her today.
It wouldn’t be a Kentucky turf stakes race without a Billy Mott entry and he has placed #11 Delta’s Kingdom in today’s field. She won an allowance race here on 9/26/19 and has earned another Churchill Downs check earlier in her career, but this is only her second graded stakes attempt and her first try didn’t go so well. While she is consistent, she is likely a notch below most of these.
Trainer Chad Brown has the best new shooter in today’s filed with #12 New and Improved. She dusted a relatively weak and thin field in the G2 Sands Point in her last start on 10/12/19, but the most attractive part about her running lines is her gate difficulties. All three of her races have presented her with some sort of gate problem, but her natural talent always seems to override the difficulty. Brown has worked her five times since her last race victory and jockey Joel Rosario makes the trip to Churchill Downs to stay aboard this filly today. If she gets enough pace to set up her late kick, the rest of this field are running for second.
Trainer Victoria Oliver might be making the shrewdest move in today’s race by making an equipment change on #13 Wildlife. This filly has some nice late run if she can be in the position to actually use it, unlike her last three races. Adding blinkers could have her a little more forwardly placed today, which could be exactly what she needs. She is going to have to be really good to outrun New and Improved, but she has the talent. I’m not overlooking this filly and she’s a threat to win if her kick is good enough.
#14 The Mackem Bullet came to the United States for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf last year at Churchill Downs and the connections decided to leave her here in the States. She absolutely romped in a Turfway Park OC on New Year’s Eve and then took o the boys in the Battaglia where she ran behind Somelikeithotbrown and Dabo. This Wesley Ward filly took the G2 Appalachian on 4/7/19 before being put on the shelf for six months and returning in the G3 Valley View at Keeneland on 10/18/19. She was jostled at the start a bit in her return but ran a very credible third to Lady Prancelot in her return. Ward likely used that race as a steppingstone for today’s G2 and I expect a great deal of improvement from her today. While her post draw is less than ideal, she should still be able to manage a good trip and use her tactical speed to get first run on the leaders coming home. If she improves enough off of her last effort, she has the talent to win if she can hold off the late-charging New and Improved.