Clark Handicap – G1 1 1/8 Mile 3YO&Up
Churchill Downs Friday November 29, 2019
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
An interesting field of twelve runners have entered this year’s Clark Handicap G1 running 1 1/8 miles under the lights of the Twin Spires. One highly regarded 3YO will try to take the Clark from a field full of sentimental favorites and Churchill Downs specialists.
#1 Draft Pick brings his west coast speed to Churchill Downs for the first time today after flaming out in the Awesome Again on 9/28/19 at Santa Anita. This Peter Eurton runner flattened out against far better horses than he will see today in that race, but he ran two monsters at Del Mar earlier in the summer. Regular jockey Joe Talamo stays aboard, but it will take more than his regular rider to get this one into the winner’s circle in the Clark. I expect a nice, forwardly placed run around the track before a battle for the exotics.
Churchill Downs specialist #2 Tom’s d’Etat is 5/6 ITM in his races over this strip and he should have every chance to use his early speed to add to his success today. A couple other in this race should set a fast opening pace allowing this Al Stall runner a perfect set-up to stalk and pounce from the garden spot. If Tom’s d’Etat tries to take them wire to wire, he may have bitten off more than he can chew against the other late runners, so I expect him to let Mr. Buff and Major Cabbie take the lead. He might be the most consistent runner in today’s field, but jockey Joel Rosario is going to have to make some interesting decisions in this race full of pace dynamics. He’s a major threat to win, but I refuse to swallow his 8/5 ML price on the win bet.
#3 Mocito Rojo won the G3 Lukas Classic here at Churchill Downs on 9/28/19 before firing an absolute dud in the G2 Fayette at Keeneland on 10/26/19. His Fayette was so bad that you almost have to toss that effort based on spec alone. He has been a win machine throughout his career getting his picture taken seventeen times in twenty-six starts, but he has been facing far lesser competition than the runners of this mediocre rendition of the Clark. A win today would surprise me, but he could fill out the exotics.
Peter Miller’s #4 Major Cabbie is getting his first taste of graded company in today’s Clark. Lately, he’s been a bit of a one trick pony by going to the lead and trying to wire the field, but he is going to have some early pressure from Mr. Buff on the engine and ML favorite Tom’s d’Etat breathing down his neck. Though I respect Miller and his recent training prowess, a win from this one would be downright “shocking.”
Speaking of shocking, #5 Snapper Sinclair shocked a lot of handicappers by taking the Tourist Mile at Kentucky Downs on 8/31/19. This Steve Asmussen runner returned to the sod that day to win his third career turf race at boxcar odds and earn him a place in the Breeders’s Cup Mile. Though he finished a distant fourth in the BC Mile, he might have had a bit of an excuse from a compromised trip at Santa Anita. Though he might be one of the more puzzling runners in today’s field, Asmussen has been able to get Snapper Sinclair to run a big one every now and the as evidenced by his third in the G3 West Virginia Governor’s Cup and head-bob second in the Essex at Oaklawn Park. He is the value play of the race if we can get more than 12/1 on him.
#6 Fact Finding has gone from routing on the sod to sprinting on the dirt to running in today’s Clark. This 5YO does seem to be improving for trainer Charlie LoPresti, but he’s never faced the likes of these and has far too many questions. I don’t know if he is a complete toss, but he’ll burn every horizontal ticket I play that isn’t pressed ALL.
Trainer John Kimmel has regular jockey Junior Alvarado aboard speed burner #7 Mr. Buff in his second G1 attempt. The first try was this year’s Woodward where he controlled the early pace only to get run down by the entire field to finish a distant seventh. Mr. Buff loves to win on the engine, but he has never pulled that trick against the likes of these. He’s a hard pass from me.
The lone 3YO in today’s Clark is Brad Cox’s buzz horse #8 Owendale. While a win today wouldn’t completely shock me, I am not as high on his chances as I probably should be. The 1 1/8 mile distance fits him like a glove as he is 2/2 ITM at this length during his career, but I keep coming bac to the question, “who has he beaten?” To me, the answer is nobody. Also, as much as I respect the fact that he ran in the Breeders’ Cup Classic in his last race, he beat one horse in that race (RIP Mongolian Groom). I’m passing on him, but I can’t wait to see what he does as a 4YO.
#9 Mr. Freeze got a late start to his racing career, but he basically did everything right for his first four races until the wheels fell off for trainer Dale Romans in the G1 Pennsylvania Derby on 9/22/18. After taking almost four months off, Romans brought him back in a G3 on his only career race on the turf and things got worse. Mr. Freeze then spent another seven months on the shelf before returning to take a second place in an OC $50K and win the G3 Ack Ack here at Churchill Downs on 9/28/19. A month later Tom’s d’Etat easily handled him in the Fayette at Keeneland, but Mr. Freeze may not have liked the sloppy going that day. What I am trying to say here is… I think Dale Romans has figured this one out and gotten him good again. Don’t leave him off any of your horizontals and crush him at any price over his ML.
Fan favorite #10 Bravazo is making his “Ali-like return to the ring” after a ten-month layoff since his appearance in the G1 Pegasus on 1/26/19. While he has been working up a storm in the mornings, I have to believe that this race is a prep for another attempt at the Pegasus this upcoming January. Bravazo has had some success here at Churchill Downs, but his track record has always been a runner-up, including last year’s rendition of the Clark. I might dabble with him in the exotics, but I think this field is likely too much for him to beat in his return.
Dallas Stewart’s #11 Seeking the Soul absolutely loves Churchill Downs as evidenced by his 10/12 ITM lifetime record. He needs to be respected and played on all horizontals as he is a different horse under the Twin Spires. I wasn’t impressed with is last three races, all in California, but we last saw him here at Churchill Downs winning the G2 Stephen Foster on 6/15/19. His last two workouts have been here at Churchill and they suggest that he still loves the place. Respect him.
#12 Pioneer Spirit was claimed away from the Brad Cox barn in his last race on 11/2/19 and now he’s entered right back in a G1. Interesting. Sure, that last race was a very good win here at Churchill, but I have to ask myself how much he will improve away from the Cox barn in his new surroundings. To me, it would be one helluva training job by Robertino Diodoro to get enough improvement for a win today.