Churchill Downs Saturday May 30, 2020
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves the brothers Grimm, brothers in arms, The Brothers Karamazov, and the Avett Brothers. His fiancée is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various horse tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.
Fade me.
Race One: 1:00 post – MC 75000 6 F 3YO&Up F&M
7-5-4-3
A compact field of seven horses was carded for today’s opening race and it is hard to look away from trainer Mark Casse’s #7 Our Secret Agent. His 3/7/2020 race at Aqueductis the best running line in the form and he is worthy of his 2/1 ML favoritism. The five workouts since his last race should have kept him fit for today. Brad Cox’s #5 Brittle and Yoo is probably the best opportunity to upset the ML favorite, but those connections tend to get bet, so he may even end up being the post time favorite. Also, I’m not a huge fan of Cox’s main jockey, Florent Geroux, jumping off for Our Secret Agent. That jockey change speaks volumes to me. #4 Dancewiththedevil has a pair of cracking workouts since his debut at Oaklawn Park. Getting jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. is a huge upgrade.
Race Two: 1:30 post – Claiming 16000 1 1/16 Mile 4YO&Up F&M
4-1-2-3
#4 Lady Cleopatra will be gunning in on the engine as that historically is her only way to get in the winner’s circle. I don’t see that happening today as #2 Sun Dress should get the drop on her inside resulting in a heated pace on the front end.If #8 Mongolian Humor has tightened up since being claimed and given to the Peter Miller barn, he could be today’s winner. We can obviously draw a line through his last outing, but his price may be too short to swallow. I am going to take #6 Seeds of Time for trainer Tom Amoss to close into the early pace and pass them all at the wire. His 4/16/2020 Oaklawn Park wasn’t much, but it was against a high caliber field and the race should have been a useful tightener for today’s class drop. Note: Scratches dramatically changed this race. Take Lady Cleopatra on the engine being better than Sun Dress.
Race Three: 2:00 post – MSW 79K 1 1/16 Mile Turf 3YO&Up F&M
12-4-5-11
It’s going to take a nice effort to beat 5/2 ML favorite #4 Elle M’a Souri. Trainer Cherie DeVaux already has two winners this Churchill Downs meet, and jockey Tyler Gaffalione stays aboard. She has every reason to win today, but I like a couple other longer-priced horses. Trainer Graham Motion has put the hood on #12 Flying the Colors today and he is a genius at bringing turf horses to the track off a layoff. The four Fair Hill workouts are exactly what I wanted to see and putting jockey Javier Castellano in the bike is a huge upgrade. I’m not sure how good Todd Pletcher’s #5 Messina actually is, but I’m willing to find out at any price over 4/1. If #15 Talking Book draws into the field, she is a must use.
Race Four: 2:32 post – Claiming 20000 6 F 3YO
4-5-1-7
I had a really hard time separating the two ML favorites #4 Johnny Cab and #5 Creekmore. Eating the chalk isn’t particularly useful, but I couldn’t make much of a case for any other horse winning this race. In a seven-horse field, sometimes you just have to find a better spot, and this race is a total pass for me in every wager except horizontals where I will lean on Johnny Cab more heavily than Creekmore.
Race Five: 3:04 post – MC 20000 6 F 3YO&Up
1-6-4-10
Trainer Wayne Catalano’s #6 Digital Star is the ML favorite and the most likely winner of this maiden claiming bunch. The jockey upgrade to Tyler Gaffalione, the recent form advantage, the three solid workouts since his last race, and class relief are all positive reasons to single this horse. That said, it’s a low-level maiden claimer, so anything can happen. If it’s not Digital Star, I could make a solid case for about seven others, so I am going to swing away on the Philip Sims FTS #1 Chili Nelson. Sims wins with 8% of his FTS, so that’s not a statistic I would normally hammer at the windows, but this one looks well-intentioned considering the string of excellent workouts. He also puts jockey Rafael Bejarano up, which looks like a vote of confidence to me. I am a little concerned about the new shooter being on the rail, but his gate workouts tell me he shouldn’t have much of any issue with the start. If he gets a clear start, Bejarano will give Chili every opportunity to upset Digital Star.
Race Six: 3:36 post – Allowance 81000n1x 1 1/8 Mile Turf 3YO
5-10-11-9
Let’s face it, there is no world where we are going to get the 6/1 ML on trainer Michael Stidham’s #11 Tabled. He’s improved in his last three races since moving to the sod and he gets jockey Jose Ortiz as well. We have to play him in horizontal wagers, and we could make a nice win bet if we get our price.Billy Mott’s #10 Tiesto returns to the races after a small break, but he has a string of six morning workouts to demonstrate fitness. He also gets excellent closing jockey Joel Rosario, which should suit his running style. I am going to take a swing with Nacho, Corey, and #5 Buy Me Candy. His career debut was riddled with trouble that is not indicated in the running line and he broke his maiden in his second race against older horses. In fact, he is the only horse in the field that has run against older competition. Sure, that race only had five runners, but he won it near the lead.
Race Seven: 4:08 post – Winning Colors GIII $100K 6 F 4YO&Up F&M
8-2-4-1
#2 Break Even will be incredibly hard to handle if she doesn’t get some pressure from somebody. This Brad Cox runner looks to be in her career-best form and Joel Rosario could try to walk the dog on the front end. If he gets away with it, she’ll be incredibly tough to pass. #8 Mia Mischief runs her best races at the throats of the leader, and she is riding a three-race win streak, including her career-best race. This Asmussen loves Churchill Downs and loves this distance.A complete pace meltdown would give a huge shot to #4 Bell’s the One. She is 3/3 at this distance in her career and jockey Corey Lanerie just might get the race setup he needs to get his picture taken with this Neil Pessin filly.
Race Eight: 4:40 post – MSW $79K 1 1/16 Mile 3YO&Up
3-9-7-11
I have heard a lot about the tough luck loss by Todd Pletcher’s #9 Ashiham on 4/25/2020 at Gulfstream park, and I must admit that this Shadwell Stable’s colt ran a nice race that just came up short. I am going to play against the chalk and look for a longer price. #7 Bear Alley will offer quite a threat, but I am against playing these connections at Churchill Downs because they are going to get hammered at the windows. Besides, trainer Dale Romans has yet to win this meet and jockey Joe Talamo is ice cold. #3 Mau Mau should be nowhere near his 10/1 ML when the gates open, but he looks like the best value play in this field. I will take this Billy Mott colt and hope jockey Joel Rosario learned a little bit during their maiden voyage together. If Rosario can shake him up a little more early in the race, a graduation photo in his second race is extremely realistic, and he could get overlooked.
Race Nine: 5:12 post – OC $62500n2x 5 1/2 F Turf 3YO&Up F&M
8-6-11-13
Wesley Ward’s #6 Bingwa will be winging it on the engine and jockey Gerardo Corrales will be daring the others to come and get him. This Goldencents filly is probably the best horse in the race and she will be incredibly tough if she can translate her dirt form to the sod. #8 Cardamon also has questions to answer in translating her dirt for to the lawn. This Billy Mott filly has every reason to expect a huge run on the grass being out of the late Pioneerof the Nile.
Race Ten: 5:44 post – OC $62500n2x 1 1/16 Mile 3YO&Up
7-8-10-11
Todd Pletcher’s #7 Fearless should be incredibly tough against this crew. He has had only one minor misstep in his brief four-race career, and he lost to an exceptionally good Dunph in his last race on 5/2/2020 at Oaklawn Park. The only reason I can find to play against him is his price. #8 Top Seed might be able to spring a bit of an upset, but he is shipping up from Florida for Shug and I am against these types. The crazy Swami angle is #11 Lone Rock. Why is Ricardo Santana Jr. jumping off Asmussen’s #10 Gun It? Was he forced off, which would be odd for Asmussen, or does Santana know a secret?
Race Eleven: 6:16 post – Mint Julep GIII $100K 1 1/16 Mile Turf 4YO&Up F&M
7-1-6-3
Running out of time on the analysis due to scoring the Daily Gallop Handicapping Tournament. I am playing trainer Graham Motion’s #7 Secret Message.