Race 1– 1st #1 Bobby Lee is dropping from $30,000, to $15,000. Trained by Dale Romans, and ridden by Robby Alborado. Her first few races haven’t been anything special, but hopefully the class drop helps.
2nd #3 Gator Vindication has been the chalk the last three out and hasn’t even came close. I have confidence that she will hit the board.
3rd #5 Kissin Kory also drops in class for half the price. Literally has been no threat in her first two races, hoping that class relief will help.
Race 2– 1st #5 Catkins beat Riesling last out, and probably ran the better race of the two last out. The upside she has against Riesling is that she has a workout and Riesling doesn’t. She ran second last out, and ran a sixty-seven Beyer.
2nd I took #8 Riesling last week, and got scratched, but here she is again. She has had about a month off, and finished third last out at Keeneland, ran a sixty-five Beyer number, it was a good race.
3rd #7 Ella Brown improved last out, and I think with another race, she will be in much better shape. She still needs to get fit as she’s coming off of her second race in a nine month time span. Not sure what happened her first race, but she looks good here based on her recent third place.
Race 3– 1st #3 Circle Unbroken has won eight of thirty-seven races, not too shabby. Alex Canchari has done well this season at Churchill, and I think based on his last two third place finishes, this Broken Vow gelding is due for a win.
2nd #4 Strut the Ring won last out, but is winless at Churchill. He’s tumbled down class this past year fairly quickly which makes it tough to take him on top. Jockey/trainer are both winless this meet. Could he be the one to end the streak?
3rd #6 Cha Mono ran fourth last out, but obviously improved his running style as his Beyer number went from a forty-eight to a sixty. He’s seen his better days and would probably prefer being back at Belterra, but he’s certainly capable of running third.
Race 4– 1st #10 Preacher Power just missed last out but ran very well finishing ahead of St. Denman. Eddie Kenneally and Julien Leparoux team up for this gelding’s fifth start hoping to make it a winning one.
2nd #6 St. Denman won at Kentucky Downs two back, but got disqualified which is a bummer since the purse was $134,000 and he ran so well. He ran a respectable third last out. He has potential and has ran some tough races.
3rd #1 Silver Shield was a $425,000 purchase at the Keeneland September Sale and hasn’t ran anywhere near enough to win back his purchase price. Currently going for start number nine, if he can come back to his July 1st Ellis race, he will do just fine in this group.
Race 5– 1st As much as I love trying to beat the chalk, #7 Sights and Sounds is probably the best out of this field. Just won by six lengths last out at Churchill and asking him to win again right off the bat is a lot, but he hasn’t ran worse than third here and jockey Morales is really having a good meet.
2nd #2 Orcus lost his rider at the start of his last race at Hawthorne which was a disapointment, and he makes his first ever start at Churchill. He enjoys the synthetic surface probably the most, but has also won and placed on the dirt, so we will take him here.
3rd #4 Unstabled’s last race was very good, maybe he can bring back the same form for this race. He’s been doing a lot of running at Belterra which isn’t much compared to Churchill and now Lanerie hops on him.
Race 6– 1st It’s a bit sad to see #5 Candy Ruby running at this level when last year he was a really nice horse running for 10x his current purchase price. New connections and running at the lowest level his career, I will take him, assuming nothing is physically wrong with him.
2nd #7 Brerry is really difficult for me to take, but this isn’t a very nice field (sorry, hope I don’t offend anyone), but based on his last couple races he’s barely finished. So why take him now? Well, he’s shortening up distance wise and running the lowest he ever has. Let’s see if it helps him.
3rd #1 Blazer has won half of his starts, which is impressive. He hasn’t ran at Churchill and has been competitive for the short duration of his career, hoping he is still good enough for this level.
Race 7– 1st #7 Unprovoked takes a tumble in class, I don’t think she really wants to be a racehorse for much longer but maybe in this spot she can prove us wrong. Her best tactic appears to be going for the lead so if she gets out of the gate she will be okay.
2nd #8 Kantastic let me down big time last out, but now she’s running at the bottom, never been this low before, so let’s give her a second chance. She has ran second six times so I’m sure she can change and get back on the board.
3rd #5 Southern Candy could hit the board here and she’s been on the board recently but she just isn’t much of a horse, just missed last out, giving her the benefit of the doubt.
Race 8– 1st #9 Racey Reecey was just beat by Dancing Waves and still ran a good race that day. She’s just been a bit unlucky lately and is due for a win.
2nd #3 Dancing Waves won last out and got claimed, putting her up in class slightly. She easily won her last race, has won six out of twenty two, let’s see how she does for her new connections.
3rd #2 Served Cold has won at a mile before by fifteen lengths! She has one start at Churchill and it wasn’t good, but she’s in good form right now.
Race 9– 1st #6 Fred’stwirlincandy lost as the favorite last out but finished a very respectable second in an allowance at Keeneland and blinkers on now, should be an improvement.
2nd #3 Commandeering was one expensive boy at $340,000 and he has outstanding pedigree. It’s a tough spot for him here but he’s good at finishing on the board.
3rd #11 Discovered ran second last out in a stakes race here at Churchill beaten by a length, and has had a little over a month off to hang out, and his win at Arlington was fantastic, he will be tough to beat.
Race 10– 1st #10 Parauari is in for a class drop, and gets a jockeys change. He’s been racing some nice horses and I think this is a good level for him.
2nd #11 One Thirty Nine won last out, but didn’t have anywhere to go, so he’d going back up in class. I wonder how he is physically since he has a habit of stopping in his previous races.
3rd #2 Come On Dover ran good last out, hit the board at this level, but nobody is giving him any love as his morning odds are 10/1. Based on his recent third place, he’s worth a shot.