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Race 1-

1^st #5 Swinging Bridge is taking a drop in class, and it’s not like she had to- her last race was decent.  Miguel Mena reunites with the daughter of Archarcharch, who is trained by Bret Calhoun. Her race coming off of the layoff was definitely out of her league, but she has found a softer spot.

2^nd #1 Unfading Beauty wasn’t a fan of the Fairgrounds, and like #4, just isn’t that consistent.  She often doesn’t break well or flattens out. Something to note is that she’s been routing, and now cuts back to sprinting, which is her preference.

3^rd #4 Arrowsphere gets the blinkers on for Diodoro, and Baze is riding.  Diodoro has already had her in his barn before and she was returned to him a few months ago.  I have a hard time with choosing her because of her inconsistency.

Race 2–

1^st #7 Drummond is trained by Matt Shirer, who has the highest winning percentage out of all the trainers in this race.  I don’t really get why this guy is 8/1, when his race at Keeneland was so good. He took a few races to see success but is now going in a better direction.

2^nd #6 Dig Charlie Dig gets a lot of time off between races.  I’m not sure I see him winning, he only has one win (everybody does), but out of seventeen starts which is the most out of everybody in this field.  He has three second places here at Churchill along with his lone win.

3^rd #5 American Sea may not be good enough for this field at this point, and he also took sixteen starts to break his maiden.  I didn’t see this as being a super strong field, so maybe, just maybe, he will be capable of hitting the board.

Race 3–

1^st #4 Ms Headley is working really well, and Wesley Ward crushes it with two year olds.  She was a cheaper purchase at $18,000. It will be cool to see how she will turn out, especially with The Big Beast who is a new stallion.

2^nd #8 Biddy Duke is also bred phenomenally.  So why didn’t she bring more than $22,000 at the 2017 Keeneland sale? Quite the unknown.

3^rd #2 Candy’s Dream isn’t working super well, but the daughter of Candy Ride is bred for talent.  But also bred for routing.

Race 4–

1^st #2 Bondurant is taking a little bit of a class drop which he needed, his last performance wasn’t great, but he didn’t break great.  His second place finish three back was good, but besides that, his races have been poor. Much better level here.

2^nd #3 Go Navy Go didn’t get his career together until last fall.  He was a hot mess with all those layoffs. He lacks the consistency but really hoping this lower level will help him.

3^rd #4 Zambian just won his last out by half a length down in Florida.  Now he’s back at Churchill. Looking at his Beyer numbers, this fella still runs eighties for numbers even as he ages.  He’s doing really well.

Race 5–

1^st #2 British Invader (GB) was an interesting claim.  To be honest, I wonder why Moss chose this horse. The class drop helped her at the Fairgrounds, maybe it will be the same case here.

2nd #7 Canton Comet just won at Oaklawn, and Oaklawn winners are generally competetive everywhere.  Her first races weren’t strong, but she was finally able to break her maiden.

3^rd #4 Valykrie might be 3/1, but Turfway horses are not strong contenders at the bigger Kentucky tracks.  None of her races have been impressive, but maybe she’ll like the track. I’m choosing her just because it’s a weak field and I’m not sure who else to take.

Race 6–

1^st #3 Dancing Waves (IRE) is hard not to take because of how much she loves Churchill.  She is quite an inconsistent mare, winning and then losing by a lot, and repeating. I’m not sure why she’s like that, but she really loves Churchill and is coming down in class.

2^nd #1 Big Blue Magic must have meant something to Brad Cox if he lost her once and went back to claim her again.  She’s coming off of a win, but still down in class. So she should have an easier time with this field.

3^rd #6 Uknowiaintlying is another Moss/Amoss horse coming off of a sixty day layoff at Delta Downs.  She does well against LA company and did a good job two back, but last out, everything fell apart.  I think I’d prefer for her to stay in LA where she is a little stronger.

Race 7-

1^st #5 Fluminese has a big task ahead of him to win this since he’s been off so long, but it is doable.  His last race wasn’t bad either. He made up a lot of ground. Either way, he’s had a long time off. He was a $410,000 purchase price.

2^nd #3 It was nice seeing Stealth win last out, especially at the higher maiden special weight end.  He had so much time off and was able to come back strong. He definitely got his career rolling later than everyone else, and then with the time off, I believe he could have a little problem.

3^rd #2 Hargus would be a surprise if he won, with all this time off he’s had.  Wow! The whole field has just had these odd layoffs and short careers for whatever reason.  Anyways, he isn’t as experienced as the rest but won his lone start.

Race 8-

1^st #6 Amazing Audrey is a daughter of Bodemeister, out of an Arch mare.  Now that she has some experience under her belt, she’s really performed better.  She’s consistent and never loses by much.

2^nd #9 Snuck Out is bred even better than her foe, Amazing Audrey.  She was a $500,000 purchase by Into Mischief out of a Malibu Moon mare.  I haven’t seen many Belterra horses come back and run as good as she does at other tracks.  She had a rough trip last out and still ran huge.

3^rd #2 Pep didn’t break well last out, but still found herself running big in that tough allowance race at Keeneland.

Race 9-

1^st #6 Nayibeth smoked the field last out.  Wesley Ward kicks butt with two year olds, so I really wouldn’t be surprised to see him win this one too.

2^nd #7 Mean Sophia purchased for $3,700 you say? It’s not a joke.  I’ve never seen a horse purchased that cheap crush the way she did at Keeneland.

3^rd #8 Twirling Owen ran an excellent first race last out, but it was only four and a half furlongs.  I think the gals above her are a little tougher than she is.

Race 10–

1^st #1 Not Now Rand ran well the first time he raced here at Churchill, ran fourth but only lost by two lengths in a much tougher race.  Blinkers off.

2^nd #7 D Squared also gets the blinkers off for Al Stall Jr.  He’s gotten a massive amount of time off and a change of trainers and scenery.  His works seem good.

3^rd #5 Freefall is a son of Tiznow owned by Winstar and the China Horse Club.  I think the cutback in distance will work to his benefit.